Nevolje na vidiku:
izgleda da će rasti premije osiguranja u Kineskom moru . I to jako .
kako ce se to odraziti na Atpl normalno ako do toga dojde
rasti će i premije osiguranja tereta......a to znači i veće vozarine ...
Da zapuca prvo bi market naglo pao. A onda bi gledali što dalje.
Onda bi se ovo oko Rusije i Ukrajine činio kao marginalan problem, malo veći nego neka pucnjava u Afganistanu ili Sudanu.
Kad samo pomislim koliko robe ulazi ili izlazi iz Kine. A tek koliko je novogradnji tamo naručeno. Koliko prometa prolazi kroz tajvanski kanal.
Moglo bi biti više straha nego kad se pojavio kovid.
A opet market misli da je vjerojatnost tog scenarija vrlo niska.
kako ce se to odraziti na Atpl normalno ako do toga dojde
Općenito govoreći, svaka opstrukcija je dobra za brodare. Naravno, u slučaju sukoba većeg razmjera nije dobro, nuklearni rat i to, ali onda će nam najmanja briga biti koliko imamo čega u portfelju.
Brodovi u idealnim uvjetima uvijek koriste najkraći put, a ovakve opstrukcije put obično produže.
Što se tiče tajvanskog tjesnaca, tu je mnogo bitniji kontejnerski promet nego dry bulk, ako sam dobro shvatio.
Hrx84, ako je Kina zadužena za 70% morskog prometa, nije joj baš u prevelikom interesu zatvoriti to tržište. Žele li se osvetiti, moraju igrati mudro.
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 14842 -1505
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 18047 -188
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 19854 -673
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 20099 -437
BDI INDEX 1731 -86
#shipping #drybulk #FFA $BDRY
#capesize #panamax # supermax
$DSX $EGLE $GBLK $GNK $GOGL $SBLK $SHIP $PANL
Joakim pozicionirao fond 40% u dry bulku, 20% usd, ostalo tankeri. Zanimljivo štivo 
Dry bulk shipping
We are still highly optimistic towards dry bulk shipping, spurred on by the lowest orderbook vs fleet on our record going back to 1996, now at a mere 7.1%. Only 3.5m dwt newbuildings were ordered during 2Q22, far below our 8.7m dwt forecast and the lowest level since 1Q 2017.
Dry bulk earnings have so far disappointed many this year but has nevertheless come in above our rather positive expectations. Our early January forecast for the Baltic Dry Index during 1Q22 was 1,779 (13% below actuals) and 1,762 for 2Q22 (30% below actuals). Our similar forecast from early April for 2Q 2022 was 2,301 (9% below actuals). Looking towards our dry bulk share index, shares outperformed our early January forecast by 10% in 1Q22 and 19% in 2Q22.
Despite that the current market sentiment has suffered some setbacks from a significant (and as we expected) reduction in earnings since the last local peak in October 2021, we remain optimistic towards the outlook for dry bulk. In the short-term, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to shifting trading patterns which has partly benefited dry bulk, although not enough to offset continued lackluster levels of iron ore exports from Brazil, amongst other lost volumes. Vale recently downgraded their full year production guidance of iron ore from 320-335mt to 310-320mt for 2022, thus better aligning with our longstanding forecast of 310mt.
Looking further afield, we expect Brazilian iron ore exports to be maintained at levels similar to the estimated 33mt in July which should be supportive for the larger dry bulk vessels. We also see Chinese authorities providing stimuli to the economy amidst negative news from the housing sector and recent covid-related lockdowns, which could support demand for dry bulk commodities from infrastructure projects in 2H22 and into 2023.
Although we do not expect any big surge in dry bulk demand for the foreseeable future, the low fleet growth should sustain average dry bulk earnings at similar levels to 2021. This in itself should be enough to propel share prices higher, now trading at a P/NAV of 0.76 and an EV/EBTITDA of 3x for 2022E. Given that earnings and asset prices are an exponential function of fleet utilization: Only a marginal increase in demand growth above our forecast is enough for the segment to skyrocket. The same can be said for effective supply growth/contraction, with the EEXI and CII coming into effect during 2023. We currently have a 40% long allocation towards dry bulk.
Display MoreJoakim pozicionirao fond 40% u dry bulku, 20% usd, ostalo tankeri. Zanimljivo štivo
Dry bulk shipping
We are still highly optimistic towards dry bulk shipping, spurred on by the lowest orderbook vs fleet on our record going back to 1996, now at a mere 7.1%. Only 3.5m dwt newbuildings were ordered during 2Q22, far below our 8.7m dwt forecast and the lowest level since 1Q 2017.
Dry bulk earnings have so far disappointed many this year but has nevertheless come in above our rather positive expectations. Our early January forecast for the Baltic Dry Index during 1Q22 was 1,779 (13% below actuals) and 1,762 for 2Q22 (30% below actuals). Our similar forecast from early April for 2Q 2022 was 2,301 (9% below actuals). Looking towards our dry bulk share index, shares outperformed our early January forecast by 10% in 1Q22 and 19% in 2Q22.
Despite that the current market sentiment has suffered some setbacks from a significant (and as we expected) reduction in earnings since the last local peak in October 2021, we remain optimistic towards the outlook for dry bulk. In the short-term, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to shifting trading patterns which has partly benefited dry bulk, although not enough to offset continued lackluster levels of iron ore exports from Brazil, amongst other lost volumes. Vale recently downgraded their full year production guidance of iron ore from 320-335mt to 310-320mt for 2022, thus better aligning with our longstanding forecast of 310mt.
Looking further afield, we expect Brazilian iron ore exports to be maintained at levels similar to the estimated 33mt in July which should be supportive for the larger dry bulk vessels. We also see Chinese authorities providing stimuli to the economy amidst negative news from the housing sector and recent covid-related lockdowns, which could support demand for dry bulk commodities from infrastructure projects in 2H22 and into 2023.
Although we do not expect any big surge in dry bulk demand for the foreseeable future, the low fleet growth should sustain average dry bulk earnings at similar levels to 2021. This in itself should be enough to propel share prices higher, now trading at a P/NAV of 0.76 and an EV/EBTITDA of 3x for 2022E. Given that earnings and asset prices are an exponential function of fleet utilization: Only a marginal increase in demand growth above our forecast is enough for the segment to skyrocket. The same can be said for effective supply growth/contraction, with the EEXI and CII coming into effect during 2023. We currently have a 40% long allocation towards dry bulk.
pravi mudrica je postao taj Joakim........bilo bi dobro da je rekao nešto što več neznamo........baš me zanima što bi onaj "stari" Joakim rekao o trenutnom stanju BDI-a i futuresima za ovaj mjesec te svojim predviđanjima za q4 2022 i q1 2023 pa da vidimo da li se ona poklapaju sa futuresima ili ne........neznam da li bi bio ovako "zakopčan"..........
Zapravo je kontra struje, zbog pada ffa svi očekuju korekciju cijena bulk dionica prema dolje, koja u pravom smislu zasad izostaje. Najveća zaštita svim bulkerima je po njemu niska knjiga narudžbi, bez obzira na promjene u svijetu. Kako bi rekli, ploviti se mora...
Pozicija fonda mu je jako pametna, ako kroz sljedećih mjesec dva potegne bulk ili tankeri na godišnjoj razini nadmašiti će tržište, a novce drži u dolarima kao relativnu zaštitu od inflacije (umjesto u norveškim krunama).
Display Morekako ce se to odraziti na Atpl normalno ako do toga dojde
Općenito govoreći, svaka opstrukcija je dobra za brodare. Naravno, u slučaju sukoba većeg razmjera nije dobro, nuklearni rat i to, ali onda će nam najmanja briga biti koliko imamo čega u portfelju.
Brodovi u idealnim uvjetima uvijek koriste najkraći put, a ovakve opstrukcije put obično produže.
Što se tiče tajvanskog tjesnaca, tu je mnogo bitniji kontejnerski promet nego dry bulk, ako sam dobro shvatio.
Hrx84, ako je Kina zadužena za 70% morskog prometa, nije joj baš u prevelikom interesu zatvoriti to tržište. Žele li se osvetiti, moraju igrati mudro.
A tek poremecaj u novogradnjama, ionako smo previse brodogradilista izgubili u zadnjih 10 godina, poremecaj u kini koja vjerovatno predstavlja oko 40% svjetskog kapaciteta bi imao za utjecaj veliki porast cijene novogradnji, a rat jos na tom dijelu bi dodatno odgodio mozda investicije u novogradnje sta zbog cijene, sta zbog rizika, pa bi se u kasnijim godinama desila dodatna eksplozija cijena novih brodova zbog konstante potraznje, a broj brodogradilista bi bio ogranicen i dalje, a nova brodogradilsta drugdje od kine bi bila i skuplja.
Zapravo je kontra struje, zbog pada ffa svi očekuju korekciju cijena bulk dionica prema dolje, koja u pravom smislu zasad izostaje. Najveća zaštita svim bulkerima je po njemu niska knjiga narudžbi, bez obzira na promjene u svijetu. Kako bi rekli, ploviti se mora...
Pozicija fonda mu je jako pametna, ako kroz sljedećih mjesec dva potegne bulk ili tankeri na godišnjoj razini nadmašiti će tržište, a novce drži u dolarima kao relativnu zaštitu od inflacije (umjesto u norveškim krunama).
Nav je uvijek bio jedan od bitnijih stavki kod ulaganja u brodare, zauzetost brodogradilista i order book mora djelovat stabilizirajuce na ponasanje cijena SH trzista na srednji rok bez obzira na ponasanje vozarina, pa je i scenarij pada brodara dosta nize nego prijasnjih godina isto ogranicen, jos je i ovaj ciklus sada popravio dosta i izgled bilance nego zadnjih dosta godina
Broj "živih" brodogradilišta se doslovno prepolovio, prema zadnjim podacima koje je objavio Clarksons:
"The number of operational shipyards in the world, with at least one order, was 238 yards last year, down from 551 yards in 2007, a 56% decrease. Those that remain are primarily booked well into 2025."
Iskorištenost flote je za jače pomake vozarina prema gore dosta bitna, ako nema drugih slobodnih brodova, one koji su ostali platiti ćeš koliko god traže.
Joakim's current portfolio allocation for Cleaves Shipping Fund (3 August 2022 4:00 AM Oslo time).
Orderbook cheat sheet............... 
Tako je, svjetsko gospodarstvo je od 2008 do 2022 naraslo za koliko posto i ova se situacija sa BDI ne moze uporediti sa ciklusom 2008-2010 iz razloga sto je tada izaslo jako puno novogradnji a tada je svijet docekala recesija.Danas je sllika drukcija,Prvo je su se brodari opekli pa ne narucuju nove brodove tj orderbook je u podrumu i dok je takav ovaj superckilus ce potrajati i svi oni koji usporedjuju onda i sad vrijeme i imaju nekog straha po meni grijese
5TC 12271 -2571
Mister Rocco razvaljuje sa Gifs-ovima u zadnje vrijeme.......od leta na mjesec, do islakanja sa broda i potopa......
nije da nema zašto......
"oteo" je tweetanje "starog" nam Joakima.......
BDI 1603 points
nastavi li ovako bdi roniti , moglo bi biti da zatraze divku nazad
Kako se nafta prerasporedila u trenutnoj situaciji 🙂
jos kasnjenja, zaobilaženja, itd
