DRY BULK

Historically Low Orderbook

Shipping must prepare itself for market conditions in which Chinese dry bulk imports will peak very shortly

“Chinese dry bulk imports will peak in next three years and that is primarily down to coal.” Maritime CEO Forum Singapore: China the big known unknown when it comes to dry bulk - Splash247

BCI 5TC 19418 -456

Freight futures am update

Capesize down ~6%
Panamax down ~2%
#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

So new EU #Russia #sanctions package just dropped yesterday. You're curious what's in it, but don't have the time go through it!

Lucky for you: I've got you covered. I just spend the entire night dissecting every line. Here is what's in it.

The first big one is the infamous oil price cap. Once a price is established, EU introduces a complete ban on transport, including ship-to-ship transfers, to third countries, of Russian crude oil (from 4/12/22) and petroleum products (from 5/2/23), unless the cap is met.

The second big new sanction is - in my view - MONUMENTAL. This is the extension of the steel import embargo, to products "processed in third countries", but incorporating Russian iron and steel products.

On the war front, the UN-backed grain deal that is helping Ukraine to export tonnes of wheat is under strain. A

surge in the number of dry bulk vessels has created a backlog of about 120 bulkers, waiting to sail to or from

Ukrainian ports. The vessels used in this trade are usually older and smaller but each one has to be inspected

by Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and UN authorities based on the trade agreement. The times that vessels are

having to wait for inspections in Istanbul has risen from 5 to 6 days, to between 10 and 15 days, increasing the

demand for more inspectors from all the involved sides. Russia had been reluctant to send additional

inspectors to help clear the backlog increasing the heat with the Ukrainian authorities. The backlog that has

been created is a testament to the success of the trade deal as more that 6.5 million tonnes of agricultural

commodities has been added to the trade supply and the seaborne trade in the Black Sea ports has been kept

alive. Every 120 days, the agreement has to be renewed, and the first renewal will take place on November 19,

when Ukrainian and Russian authorities are expected to begin a new but difficult round of negotiations.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/xclusiv_weekly_2022_10_10.pdf

BCI 5TC 18630 -788

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 18630 -788

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 19763 -285

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 18856 6

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 18584 -23

BDI INDEX 1904 -40

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 18241 -389

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 19323 -440

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 18788 -68

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 18433 -151

BDI INDEX 1873 -31

Capesize Šangaj

TCT IndexPoint861.43

-76.07

China-Japan/Pacific Round Voyage180000DWTCapesize$/day13072

-1154

BCI 5TC 17365 -876

2024 forecast to be first year in modern history of dry bulk where more tonnage will exit than enter the sector

The minuscule dry bulk orderbook is set to create a series of records in the coming years with few yards willing or able to offer early delivery slots.

New analysis by brokers Lorentzen & Co suggests that next year looks to be the first in three decades of almost net zero growth and the year thereafter the first in modern history of more tonnage going out of the market than coming in. The orderbook for bulk carriers is at only 7% of the existing fleet, a remarkably low fraction.

“Despite the market expected to be strong, demolition of ageing bulk carriers will probably increase, as new regulations will take their toll on the vintage fleet,” the new fleet forecast from Lorentzen stated.

Lorentzen has also given its growth prospects for all the major and minor bulks. Lumped together, it sees growth in dry bulk volumes of 3.1% next year and 2.7% the year thereafter.

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 17365 -876

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 18796 -527

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 18654 -134

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 18362 -71

BDI INDEX 1818 -55

Quote from jasko

2024 forecast to be first year in modern history of dry bulk where more tonnage will exit than enter the sector

The minuscule dry bulk orderbook is set to create a series of records in the coming years with few yards willing or able to offer early delivery slots.

New analysis by brokers Lorentzen & Co suggests that next year looks to be the first in three decades of almost net zero growth and the year thereafter the first in modern history of more tonnage going out of the market than coming in. The orderbook for bulk carriers is at only 7% of the existing fleet, a remarkably low fraction.

“Despite the market expected to be strong, demolition of ageing bulk carriers will probably increase, as new regulations will take their toll on the vintage fleet,” the new fleet forecast from Lorentzen stated.

Lorentzen has also given its growth prospects for all the major and minor bulks. Lumped together, it sees growth in dry bulk volumes of 3.1% next year and 2.7% the year thereafter.

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Dobar clanak, hvala, kolega.

Kao sto vec rekoh, ako 2023 bude pozitivna, a po svoj prilici ce biti, onda ne gine 10 pozitivnih godina u nizu.

Jer potraznja za zitom, ugljenom i rudacom u svijetu nece padati. Barem ako se uzme ova godina kao referenca.

BCI 5TC 17965 +600

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 17965 600

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 18729 -67

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 18588 -66

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 18208 -154

BDI INDEX 1838 +20

Freight futures am update

Capesize up ~6%

Panamax up ~3%

Quote from hugh

Quote from looserst

Kako ono bijase? Trenutni futuresi su samo to? Trenutni?

fururesi isto kao i vozarine ne znaju kud bi točno krenuli........capovi su nokautirani a supre i pane gledaju u njih na podu i misle da bi tamo mogle i trebale ali zapravo ne idu, bar ne na to "trenutno vrijeme".......cape je glavni i "busta" sentiment ali razvijeno tržište zna prepoznati strukturu brodova i više nagraditi neke brodare, možda a i vjerovatno, s obzirom na strukturu flote i ugovora dok naše to ne za, ne želi i nije dovoljno likvidno.......troboj fundanenata vs trenutno stanje vs neizvjesna budučnost se nastavlja.........

u ovome sam totalno fulao "raspravu o 10 godina" ali mislim da o tome ne treba ni raspravljati s obzirom na sektor.....

u svijetu prevelikih valuacija, dry bulk brodari imaju "apsolutno pravo" u nekom trenutku postati bar "realno vrednovani" ako ne i precijenjeni a nisam daleko od razmišljanja da bi se to moglo dogoditi baš kad sve "lađe potonu" pa bar dio marketa shvati da bi dobro imati neku lovu u nečemu što ipak ima makar i trenutno opravdanje u fundamentima i stvara novac.......

brodari danas otporni na lom glavnih indexa........imaju i zašto u odnosu na ostale........možda vidimo malo od ovoga što sam napisao 09.09. :

u svijetu prevelikih valuacija, dry bulk brodari imaju "apsolutno pravo" u nekom trenutku postati bar "realno vrednovani" ako ne i precijenjeni a nisam daleko od razmišljanja da bi se to moglo dogoditi baš kad sve "lađe potonu" pa bar dio marketa shvati da bi dobro imati neku lovu u nečemu što ipak ima makar i trenutno opravdanje u fundamentima i stvara novac.......

Joakim dao ili dobio otkaz:

Joakim Hannisdahl and Cleaves break up over ‘irreconcilable differences’ | TradeWinds

The ex-analyst says the fund was near an all-time high on his last day running the show

www.tradewindsnews.com

Možda dođe kod Mintza!