DRY BULK

    So new EU #Russia #sanctions package just dropped yesterday. You're curious what's in it, but don't have the time go through it!

    Lucky for you: I've got you covered. I just spend the entire night dissecting every line. Here is what's in it.

    The first big one is the infamous oil price cap. Once a price is established, EU introduces a complete ban on transport, including ship-to-ship transfers, to third countries, of Russian crude oil (from 4/12/22) and petroleum products (from 5/2/23), unless the cap is met.

    The second big new sanction is - in my view - MONUMENTAL. This is the extension of the steel import embargo, to products "processed in third countries", but incorporating Russian iron and steel products.

    On the war front, the UN-backed grain deal that is helping Ukraine to export tonnes of wheat is under strain. A

    surge in the number of dry bulk vessels has created a backlog of about 120 bulkers, waiting to sail to or from

    Ukrainian ports. The vessels used in this trade are usually older and smaller but each one has to be inspected

    by Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and UN authorities based on the trade agreement. The times that vessels are

    having to wait for inspections in Istanbul has risen from 5 to 6 days, to between 10 and 15 days, increasing the

    demand for more inspectors from all the involved sides. Russia had been reluctant to send additional

    inspectors to help clear the backlog increasing the heat with the Ukrainian authorities. The backlog that has

    been created is a testament to the success of the trade deal as more that 6.5 million tonnes of agricultural

    commodities has been added to the trade supply and the seaborne trade in the Black Sea ports has been kept

    alive. Every 120 days, the agreement has to be renewed, and the first renewal will take place on November 19,

    when Ukrainian and Russian authorities are expected to begin a new but difficult round of negotiations.

    https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/xclusiv_weekly_2022_10_10.pdf

    2024 forecast to be first year in modern history of dry bulk where more tonnage will exit than enter the sector

    The minuscule dry bulk orderbook is set to create a series of records in the coming years with few yards willing or able to offer early delivery slots.

    New analysis by brokers Lorentzen & Co suggests that next year looks to be the first in three decades of almost net zero growth and the year thereafter the first in modern history of more tonnage going out of the market than coming in. The orderbook for bulk carriers is at only 7% of the existing fleet, a remarkably low fraction.

    “Despite the market expected to be strong, demolition of ageing bulk carriers will probably increase, as new regulations will take their toll on the vintage fleet,” the new fleet forecast from Lorentzen stated.

    Lorentzen has also given its growth prospects for all the major and minor bulks. Lumped together, it sees growth in dry bulk volumes of 3.1% next year and 2.7% the year thereafter.

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    Quote from jasko

    2024 forecast to be first year in modern history of dry bulk where more tonnage will exit than enter the sector

    The minuscule dry bulk orderbook is set to create a series of records in the coming years with few yards willing or able to offer early delivery slots.

    New analysis by brokers Lorentzen & Co suggests that next year looks to be the first in three decades of almost net zero growth and the year thereafter the first in modern history of more tonnage going out of the market than coming in. The orderbook for bulk carriers is at only 7% of the existing fleet, a remarkably low fraction.

    “Despite the market expected to be strong, demolition of ageing bulk carriers will probably increase, as new regulations will take their toll on the vintage fleet,” the new fleet forecast from Lorentzen stated.

    Lorentzen has also given its growth prospects for all the major and minor bulks. Lumped together, it sees growth in dry bulk volumes of 3.1% next year and 2.7% the year thereafter.

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    Dobar clanak, hvala, kolega.

    Kao sto vec rekoh, ako 2023 bude pozitivna, a po svoj prilici ce biti, onda ne gine 10 pozitivnih godina u nizu.

    Jer potraznja za zitom, ugljenom i rudacom u svijetu nece padati. Barem ako se uzme ova godina kao referenca.

    Bolje je jeftino kupovati nego jeftino prodavati.

    Quote from hugh
    Quote from looserst

    Kako ono bijase? Trenutni futuresi su samo to? Trenutni? 8o

    fururesi isto kao i vozarine ne znaju kud bi točno krenuli........capovi su nokautirani a supre i pane gledaju u njih na podu i misle da bi tamo mogle i trebale ali zapravo ne idu, bar ne na to "trenutno vrijeme".......cape je glavni i "busta" sentiment ali razvijeno tržište zna prepoznati strukturu brodova i više nagraditi neke brodare, možda a i vjerovatno, s obzirom na strukturu flote i ugovora dok naše to ne za, ne želi i nije dovoljno likvidno.......troboj fundanenata vs trenutno stanje vs neizvjesna budučnost se nastavlja.........

    u ovome sam totalno fulao "raspravu o 10 godina" ali mislim da o tome ne treba ni raspravljati s obzirom na sektor.....

    u svijetu prevelikih valuacija, dry bulk brodari imaju "apsolutno pravo" u nekom trenutku postati bar "realno vrednovani" ako ne i precijenjeni a nisam daleko od razmišljanja da bi se to moglo dogoditi baš kad sve "lađe potonu" pa bar dio marketa shvati da bi dobro imati neku lovu u nečemu što ipak ima makar i trenutno opravdanje u fundamentima i stvara novac.......

    brodari danas otporni na lom glavnih indexa........imaju i zašto u odnosu na ostale........možda vidimo malo od ovoga što sam napisao 09.09. :

    u svijetu prevelikih valuacija, dry bulk brodari imaju "apsolutno pravo" u nekom trenutku postati bar "realno vrednovani" ako ne i precijenjeni a nisam daleko od razmišljanja da bi se to moglo dogoditi baš kad sve "lađe potonu" pa bar dio marketa shvati da bi dobro imati neku lovu u nečemu što ipak ima makar i trenutno opravdanje u fundamentima i stvara novac.......