DRY BULK

Quote from StatusQuo

Quote from Chuck

Ovo je strašno kako je Dry Bulk ETF pao na razinu iz 2. ili 3. mjeseca 2021. Nema baš previše optimizma za budućnost u Dry Bulku sudeći po futuresima koji padaju i ETF-u koji ih prati u padu.

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BDRY

Da, moram priznat bas su strasne ove vozarine od preko 20 000 $

Koje konstantno padaju već preko mjesec dana, te nema naznake preokreta i to u najboljem dijelu godine za bulkere. Čak je i propaganda od pojedinih kolega (i kolegica) utihnula, a to je siguran znak da svi bježe što dalje od ZSE, a jako je usko grlo za izlazak i cijena stalno pada.

Quote from Chuck

Quote from StatusQuo

Da, moram priznat bas su strasne ove vozarine od preko 20 000 $

Koje konstantno padaju već preko mjesec dana i nema naznake preokreta. Čak je i propaganda od pojedinih kolega (i kolegica) utihnula, a to je siguran znak da svi bježe što dalje od ZSE, a jako je usko grlo za izlazak i cijena stalno pada.

Odakle trebaju tocno preokrenit, vozarine od 22-25k $ su izrazito dobre vozarine, da je malo objektivnosti pa izracunat dobit na tako losim vozarinama i onda stavit u kontekst cijene, ali naravno crnjacenje je pozeljnije, lakse se hvatat na dnevne vijesti i upast u crnilo i pretjerivanje oko prirodne volatilnosti sektora, a market cesto daje privid stanja sad ga ima sad ga nema, sve ce to doci na svoje za one kojima doseg nije mjesec dana i mogu malo duze sagledat stvari jer oni obicno kolo vode, a tebi je ionako sve crno zadnjih godinu ipo dana pa tu nema nista cudno to sta imas svojih 5 minuta etera i sta te vecina ne dozivljava, ocito imaju razloge za to, evo ja sam se malo uhvatio na to ne brini necu vise .

Futuresi i danas padaju, ovo izgleda nema dna

https://www.braemarscreen.com/

Da zahebano kad sa takvim cijenama recimo atpl zaradi preko 200 kn/dionici, baš za zabrinuti se

Trebat će nam ovakvih vijesti, navodno je congestion na dry bulku ove godine na 3%, a lani je bio 6%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/coal-imports-pour-into-energy-starved-europe-from-around-globe

Soaring differentials between European and Australian prices have made it viable for traders to send cargoes from the Asia-Pacific region, even after taking into account the high shipping cost for the longer journey. Some low-quality Indonesian coal has also made its way into Europe, although Kpler said they were likely blended with US material with higher calorific value. The heavy inflow of coal shipments is exacerbating gridlock at the ports.  “We are seeing very high congestion for the main European ports,” said Abhinav Gupta, a drybulk shipping analyst at Braemar. There were 71 drybulk ships waiting at anchor at the area off Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam as of June 29, triple the five-year average of 24 ships for this time of the year. Current waiting time for coal vessels amounts to about 10 days, according to Kpler, who said low river levels on the Rhine also contributed to delays. It expects that will improve to about eight days by mid-July. Coal terminals are currently at full storage capacity, and transporting large volumes of the fuel inland “has become a challenge over the past few weeks,” the Rotterdam port said. The situation has been complicated by a shortage of barges, it said, as many vessels are tied up with Ukrainian iron ore and grain exports.

Quote from Chuck

Futuresi i danas padaju, ovo izgleda nema dna

https://www.braemarscreen.com/

hebeš futurese, od njih nema kruha . neki dan su bili totalno zeleni, a drugi dan totalno crveni. ko da se netko igra Picassa , jedan dan mu je sve zeleno, drugi dan ga sunce opalilo u glavu.

Quote from Chuck

Quote from StatusQuo

Da, moram priznat bas su strasne ove vozarine od preko 20 000 $

Koje konstantno padaju već preko mjesec dana, te nema naznake preokreta i to u najboljem dijelu godine za bulkere. Čak je i propaganda od pojedinih kolega (i kolegica) utihnula, a to je siguran znak da svi bježe što dalje od ZSE, a jako je usko grlo za izlazak i cijena stalno pada.

Najjaci rast bdia je krajem ljeta i u jesen.

Bilo bi sada zanimljivo vidjeti vrijednost brodova i time charter estimates.

Jasko, help?

Neću pisati sadašnje brojke da ne pokvarim kolegama priliku kupit jeftinije

Ovdje za svaki brod se može izvući okvirna vrijednost.

Ship AP LIBERTAS (Bulk Carrier) Registered in Malta - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 9465734, MMSI 256818000, Call Sign 9HA4015

Vessel AP LIBERTAS is a Bulk Carrier, Registered in Malta. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the…

www.marinetraffic.com

Na zadnjem fin. izvješlu je NAV -obveze bio oko 600kn, a tada su brodovi bili jeftiniji

5TC 17283 -1198

Capesize down ~4%
Panamax down ~4%

Quote from D_artagnan

Neću pisati sadašnje brojke da ne pokvarim kolegama priliku kupit jeftinije

Ovdje za svaki brod se može izvući okvirna vrijednost.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…sel:AP_LIBERTAS

Na zadnjem fin. izvješlu je NAV -obveze bio oko 600kn, a tada su brodovi bili jeftiniji

Ne mislim na brodove ATPL-a, nego općenito svih klasa brodova, rast ili pad u odnosu na prethodno razdoblje.

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 17283 -1198

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 21965 -254

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 24917 -186

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 22309 -300

BDI INDEX 2098 -61

Je li vrijeme za UP?

Quote from stipe_Cro

BCI 5 T/C rute 180000 17283 -1198

BPI 5 T/C rute 82500 21965 -254

BSI 10 T/C rute 58328 24917 -186

BHSI 7 T/C rute 38200 22309 -300

BDI INDEKS 2098 -61

Je li vrijeme za UP?

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još malo bi trebalo sačakati, pratiti srozarine i usput dokupljivati, a onda........................

Iako ovo zvuči preoptimistično, stavit ćemo:

Erdogan says Ukraine, Russia close on grain deal.
“Negotiations are going ahead so that this grain, and sunflower oil, everything can reach the world," Turkish President Erdogan said.

Italian Prime Minister Draghi said that Turkey had "a central role" in the plan. (Kyev Independent)

Nije lahko gledati kako brodari konstantno padaju, bez obzira radilo se o dry bulku ili kontejnerima, no sreća prati hrabre.

Ovdje je thread o rezalištima i tome da će zbog novih eko pravila dio flote u dry bulku morati završiti na rezalištima. Istovremeno, negdje sam slušao da će nova regulacija od sljedeće godine manje pogoditi dry bulk jer na ovim razinama ionako voze sporo, a što sporije voziš, to manje zagađuješ. Kontejneraši voze brzo jer imaju visoke vozarine pa bi oni trebali usporiti. Ali oni imaju veliku knjigu narudžbi.

BCI 5TC 16588 -695

Izašao je novi Breakwave report i koliko vidim očekuju povećanje (Capesize) vozarina u ostatku godine i nastavak rastućeg ciklusa.

Capesize futures curve now points to peak rates later in the year

..we expect the fourth quarter of the year to be the peak period for the spot Capesize market, and now the futures curve
starts to reflect such a scenario.

China continues to signal increasing economic stimulus spending

Recent signaling out of major Chinese policy meetings point to an increase of velocity on infrastructure funding which could

provide some much-needed support for the steel sector that is currently faced with low demand, high input prices and negative

margins. Although the 5.5% GDP growth for the whole year seems a far-fetched target, recent remarks out of senior officials

continue to imply a sizable acceleration in economic activity for the rest of the year

Dry bulk upcycle to continue in 2022

Although the high level of volatility of 2021 might slow down, the dry bulk sector remains in an upcycle driven by relatively low

growth in supply, strong demand for bulk commodities, and continuing infrastructure bottlenecks and supply chain constraints

that affect the whole shipping universe. We anticipate government actions as it relates to energy security combined with

geopolitical developments to drive the flows of commodities transported by dry bulk, and thus, indirectly determine the path

of freight rates.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a4d1d26e5dd5b537a6647c5/t/62c3d96f0bf4cc740f747fd3/1657002352220/Breakwave+July+5+2022+Report.pdf

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 16588 -695
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 21270 -695
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 24712 -205
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 21946 -363

BDI INDEX 2043 -55

Freight futures am update

Capesize flat

Panamax down ~5%

ovaj pad brodara vani prilično je brutalan......i danas rone kao da im je prvi dan pada a ne "sto prvi".........no good......u odnosu na pad od vrha naši se brodari prilično dobro drže ali to moramo pripisati našem ultra razvijenom tržištu gdje smo uvijek veći vjernici od Pape.......

Zadnjh dana me buni kad provjerim listu brodara,uvik pomislim da je neka crypto lista