Mining supercycle talk back as copper, iron ore prices surge to 7-year highs https://www.mining.com/mining-supercy…o-7-year-highs/
ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)
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The unstoppable iron ore: SGX December futures continue their rally supported by a perfect storm of strong demand, tight supply and ever increasing trade war risks..
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Baltic Dry Index Falls 0.83% to 1,201
Capesize -0.08% to $12,322
Panamax -2.52% to $11,071
Supramax 58k tons -0.14% to $11,209
Handysize +0.37% to $9,919 -
Fitch upgrades 2021 shipping outlook as boxships and bulkers rebound https://www.tradewindsnews.com/finance/fitch-…ound/2-1-922793
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Vessel scrap prices have broken through the $400 per ldt https://www.tradewindsnews.com/insight/scrap-…free/2-1-922513
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Počeli su analitičari s Wall Streeta sa prognozama za brodare. Za neke i preko 1000% npr. SHIP Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target for the stock at $6, which means that the shares’ value could jump 1100% from current levels. https://marketingsentinel.com/2020/12/01/sea…win-over-bears/
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Vale on its iron ore recovery: “It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon,” CEO Eduardo Bartolomeo said Wednesday on Vale’s annual investor day presentation. “The ones that come to run with us will reap the benefits of big value creation.” https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price
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Coal prices rose to above $71 per tonne in the first week of December, close to the levels not seen since early February amid expectations of higher restocking levels and a boost in seasonal demand. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
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Počeli su analitičari s Wall Streeta sa prognozama za brodare. Za neke i preko 1000% npr. SHIP Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target for the stock at $6, which means that the shares’ value could jump 1100% from current levels. https://marketingsentinel.com/2020/12/01/sea…win-over-bears/
koliko je ovo relevantna procjena može se iščitati iz slijedećeg qoute-a.. pametnom dosta
"The SHIP stock price is -1756% off its 52-week high price of $9.28"
baš me zanima kako izračunati pad od 1756%.. ne znam nas to nisu učili u školi.. i kakve to veze ima sa ATPL?
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Baltic Dry Index Falls 1.0% to 1,189 Capesize -0.39% to $12,274
Panamax -2.74% to $10,768
Supramax 58k tons -0.42% to $11,162
Handysize +0.51% to $9,970 -
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https://www.poslovni.hr/trzista/cijene…pljenje-4261816
Zadnja rečenica.....čisto kao retrovizor.......potvrđuje da kinezi uvoze kuruza od amera ko ludi......a ovdje smo mjesecima čekali da se ti dogovori ostvare kako bi vozarine rasle a sad več mjesecima uvoze a vozarine i dalje u banani......kukuruz se pokazao kao banana....😃....i tako, čeka se, čeka a ono samo banane......za koga su banane pitam se?......soja, kuruz, banana......ko više i pamti trade deal, a vozarine, di su......
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https://www.poslovni.hr/trzista/cijene…pljenje-4261816
Zadnja rečenica.....čisto kao retrovizor.......potvrđuje da kinezi uvoze kuruza od amera ko ludi......a ovdje smo mjesecima čekali da se ti dogovori ostvare kako bi vozarine rasle a sad več mjesecima uvoze a vozarine i dalje u banani......kukuruz se pokazao kao banana....😃....i tako, čeka se, čeka a ono samo banane......za koga su banane pitam se?......soja, kuruz, banana......ko više i pamti trade deal, a vozarine, di su......
Ne bih rekao da su vozarine u banani. Ako se uzme u obzir da je rast flote u ovoj godini preko 3.5% dok je istovremeno pad svjetskog gospodarstva 4.2%, vozarine za supramaxe npr. od 11k su više nego ok u ovakvoj situaciji.
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https://www.poslovni.hr/trzista/cijene…pljenje-4261816
Zadnja rečenica.....čisto kao retrovizor.......potvrđuje da kinezi uvoze kuruza od amera ko ludi......a ovdje smo mjesecima čekali da se ti dogovori ostvare kako bi vozarine rasle a sad več mjesecima uvoze a vozarine i dalje u banani......kukuruz se pokazao kao banana....😃....i tako, čeka se, čeka a ono samo banane......za koga su banane pitam se?......soja, kuruz, banana......ko više i pamti trade deal, a vozarine, di su......
Ne bih rekao da su vozarine u banani. Ako se uzme u obzir da je rast flote u ovoj godini preko 3.5% dok je istovremeno pad svjetskog gospodarstva 4.2%, vozarine za supramaxe npr. od 11k su više nego ok u ovakvoj situaciji.
Ako se na taj način gleda to može biti utjeha, ali po mom mišljenu vozarine trenutno nisu ni približno dovoljne za prosperitet i napredak atpl kao firme ......
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Dry Bulk Shipping Update (BUY) - 'Tis the Season (88-pages)
As we are soon entering the weakest period of the year for dry bulk earnings, we see limited upside and expect rates to extend recent losses into February. Share prices are however uncorrelated with season, and could hold up quite well. We revise our target prices down in light of lower asset prices and our revised iron ore export forecast, but maintain our very positive stance on dry bulk shipping. https://5f38c3be-c80e-4113-8699-341bc56851e6.usrfiles.com/ugd/5f38c3_505…896418dabbe.pdf
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Vozarine rastu https://www.braemarscreen.com/home
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Dry Bulk Shipping Update (BUY) - 'Tis the Season (88-pages)
As we are soon entering the weakest period of the year for dry bulk earnings, we see limited upside and expect rates to extend recent losses into February. Share prices are however uncorrelated with season, and could hold up quite well. We revise our target prices down in light of lower asset prices and our revised iron ore export forecast, but maintain our very positive stance on dry bulk shipping. https://5f38c3be-c80e-4113-8699-341bc56851e6.usrfiles.com/ugd/5f38c3_505…896418dabbe.pdf
Ne znam koliko je ekipa ovdje shvatila tekst, ali evo jos jedni analiticari predvidaju nikakav ili slabi rast vozarina sljedeće godine. I oni su smanjili predviđanja i očekuju poboljšanje tek od 22. Pogotovo je los Brazil. A ekipa ovdje zna da slijedi čudo i po njima sve upucuje na rast
Ajde dobro. Ono sta je isto zanimljivo je da oni misle da GOGL vrijedi 51% više nego sad, a kako sam pisao oni voze pozitivno i to iznimno pozitivno, za razliku od ATPL-a. Imaju 2x mlađu flotu. Imaju manji dug od ATPL-a, a glavnica ne dolazi na naplatu do 2023.g. i zaduzuju se s kamatom od 2,25% iznad LIBORA, dok ATPL ima kamatu sigurno preko 12%, a dobar dio glavnice mu dolazi sljedeće godine. GOGL-ov P/NAV je oko 1 dok je od ATPL-a negativan, odnosno ne postoji. GOGL ima ugradene scrubbere i filtere, ATPL nema. Itd. itd. Po kojoj logici onda vi mislite da ATPL vrijedi recimo duplo iliti 300kn? Znam da velika vecina vas misli da to vrijedi i preko 500. Kužite logiku? -
Baltic Dry Index Rises 0.67% to 1,197
Capesize +2.7% to $12,606
Panamax -1.12% to $10,647
Supramax 58k tons -0.37% to $11,121
Handysize +0.16% to $9,986Freight futures am update Capesize up ~9%
Panamax up ~3% -
FFA Tone: Capes again better this morning lead by better physical on C5 and some short covering. Panamax and smax both remain well supported…good volume throughout
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Fleet growth in 2021/2022
https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2020/…k-supply-growth
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