ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

Vozarine na Dalekom istoku panamaxa i supri su nastavile rasti, pad vozarina capeova drastično je usporio.

Razlika u cijeni VLSFO i IFO380 i dalje se smanjuje.

Badava sve priče ovdje oko vozarina kada ATPL već godinama i na daleko većim vozarinama nije imala godišnje dobiti. Jedino što je ovdje sigurno je topljenje kapitala iz godine u godinu.

Vani se brodari već dva dana zelene, bez obzira na pad ostatka tržišta, a koliko vidim i GOGL danas raste u Oslo-u.

GOGL +2.78%

Vidim da je i tržište vani danas okrenulo u plus, a Panamaxi i Supramaxi nastavljaju rast u Kini.

Broj novozaraženih u Kini se smanjuje i sa dolaskom toplijeg vremena bi moglo krenuti na bolje.

02.03.2020.

Cape - 4.5 % $ 2.172

huh.., nikako na zelenu granu

Baltic Dry Index Rises 0.75% to 539 in London
•Capesize -4.49% to $2,172
•Panamax +1.25% to $6,896
•Supramax 58k tons +2.4% to $6,827
•Handysize +1.29% to $3,915

jurazeleni,

na zelenoj grani smo već neko vrijeme...

Hi5? More like Lo5

For a significant minority of people, the way of dealing with the IMO’s new sulphur regulation was to use scrubbers to make sure they fulfilled the requirements. This meant that they could use the cheaper High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) and yet still be compliant with the regulation.

At the start of the year they must have seemed like absolute Kings. $300+ in their pockets per tonne compared to non-scrubber-fitted vessels, hailed as Gods with deistic forecasting powers. However, like starting the week back at work after a festival, the high doesn’t last forever. This ‘scrubber spread’ has collapsed, with March levels currently at around $113 for Rotterdam and $115 for Singapore. The spread has lost around 65% of its value in just two months.

Many of these divine predictors will now be staring-wide eyed at their credit bill for scrubber installations with very much reduced smiles this week. This will be especially true if they did not hedge in the Hi5 levels in January. They really did miss a trick if not.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/hi5-more-like-lo5/

Quote from BudFox

Vani brodari zeleni, usprkos sveopcoj panici zbog Corona virusa

https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/gogl%2C…ue&guccounter=1

Sve se crveni u ovom trenutku.

Kako to da su vozarine za dva puta veći brod (capesize) dva i pol puta manje od manjeg broda (panamax)? Nisam pratio, možda netko može pojasniti što se događa?

Posljednji put pad bdi bio je 10. veljače. To je bilo najnize od 29. ožujka 2016

Quote from Normani

Quote from BudFox

Vani brodari zeleni, usprkos sveopcoj panici zbog Corona virusa

https://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/gogl%2C…ue&guccounter=1

Sve se crveni u ovom trenutku.

Ameri rastu 5% danas (dobro ste procitali DOW +5.09%), a brodarima se pale motori, jer i Kina ima aduta u rukavu:

Thurlestone on Capes: “Another encouraging piece of news is that China announced $3.5T worth of infrastructure investment today... It will take time for normal service to resume across the Capesize market but for the first time there are signs that we could be turning a corner..”

Uskoro bi mogao krenuti i oporavak capeova:

Benchmark Dalian and Singapore iron ore futures rose sharply in morning trade on Monday, rebounding from last week’s slump as declining stockpiles at Chinese ports suggested a recovery in steel mills’ appetite for the raw material.

Factory operations and construction activities are gradually resuming in China, the world’s top steel producer, after a prolonged Lunar New Year holiday, work stoppages and travel restrictions aimed at containing the virus epidemic.

https://in.reuters.com/article/asia-i…s-idINL4N2AV0UD

"Some very interesting charts on almost real time shipping data out of China. Seems volumes are normalizing. Source: Cargometrics"

I dalje ohrabrujući brojevi dolaze iz Kine, a vezani uz epidemiju.

Drastično se smanjuje opterećenje na zdravstvene djelatnike i bolničke kapacitete. Mortalitet oboljelih takođeru je u padu.

8:10 am Mar 3

Hubei Province reported 114 new cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia on Mar 2, with 31 new deaths and 2,410 cases of recovery. The total number of infections in the province climbed to 67,217 with 36,167 recovered and 2,834 dead.

125 new coronavirus infections, 31 new deaths were reported on Mar 2 in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 80,151 with 2,943 deaths.

Kina kreće sa ogromnim stimuliranjem svog gospodarstva i pokušat će nadoknaditi pad u prvom kvartalu u preostala 3 kvartala

China opening the stimulus taps for $3.5 trillion, according to a state owned news agency. For comparison, the 2009 stimulus was $586 billion.

Brazil’s soybean exports spike in February

"Brazil, the world’s largest soy producer and supplier, shipped 3.55 million mt of soybeans in the first three weeks of February, up 367% month on month, according to a report from the Brazilian foreign trade department.

Soybean traders in Brazil are bullish despite prevailing global issues, such as economic slowdown and epidemic outbreaks, sources said."

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/brazils-soybea…ke-in-february/

"Breakwave Advisors, which created the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF BDRY, -0.32% to mimic the Baltic Dry Index with an exchange-traded fund, opined in a report on Tuesday, “If history is a guide, expect an impressive rally later this year. Given the severity of the decline, such a potential upturn could be significant … once conditions begin to improve in China.”

“Given that other major asset classes have been only mildly impacted by the epidemic while shipping is close to record lows, investors view such a discrepancy as an opportunity to invest in a potential recovery as the epidemic eases,” Kartsonas says, adding: “Shipping is cyclical, and any improvement in fundamentals can lead to a sharp increase in freight rates, which in turn will have a positive impact on BDRY.”

Kartsonas and his team are predicting a strong bounce back in shipping volumes, starting sometime over the next two to three months as the virus eases.

“The accumulated demand for transportation is significant and will coincide with seasonal pick up in activity. An inventory rebuilding cycle for bulk commodities could further boost volumes, aiding mainly tankers and dry bulk,” he says, predicting a “sharp” rebound in freight rates towards more sustainable levels in term of cash breakevens.

Dakle, istovremeno bi mogli imati pojacan promet roba kada se situacija sa virusom smiri jer ce biti potrebno nadoknaditi zalihe i to u vrijeme ionako jake sezonalne potraznje. Drugi dio godine bi mogao biti zanimljiv, zato sada treba zauzimati pozicije.

https://splash247.com/breakwave-advi…he-coronavirus/

Panamaxi i Supre i dalje u plusu u Kini.

The Baltic Dry Index rose 1.86% to 549 points in London to make it 13 straight days of incremental gains for the measure of dry bulking shipping rates with port activity in China improving from a near standstill at certain locations.

The Baltic Dry Index bottomed out at 411 on February 10.

Capesize rates were up 1.2% in the latest read and Panamax rates rose 2.7%.