DRY BULK

Jakarta meets with miners over coal export ban - Splash247

The Indonesian government is meeting with the nation’s top miners today with a deal to ease this month’s coal ban expected to be announced shortly. Indonesia…

splash247.com

The Indonesian government is meeting with the nation’s top miners today with a deal to ease this month’s coal ban expected to be announced shortly.

Indonesia shocked energy buyers and the dry bulk shipping community over the weekend by announcing a sudden ban of coal exports for the month of January over concerns about local power blackouts amid tight supplies. The swiftness of the announcement has left many ships bound for Indonesia in limbo.

Under Indonesia’s Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) scheme, miners are obliged to supply 25% of their output to the local market, but critically low stockpiles at power utilities have incited further action from the country’s energy ministry.

However, after much representation to government by the mining industry as well as overseas buyers this week, a deal to ease the ban is likely to be revealed later today.

Quote from proba

Pa zašto onda ne želiš demantirati gornje brojke? Napada se tko je napisao analizu i kakvi su njegovi motivi, a ne demantiraju se brojke? O čemu mi onda govorimo? Nije mi jasno. Dali ne valja analiza jer ne valjaju brojke ili zato što ju je napisao netko tko se ne slaže s ekipom? Ako je u prvih 3 kvartala prevezeno 3% manje ugljena i 3% manje zeljezne rude, kao i 8% čelika, itd., a vozarine su porasle 6x, namece se zaključak da za rast indeksa nije zaslužna potražnja, nego događaji za koje je većinom zaslužna korona, i događaji koji se možda neće ponoviti. Još jednom, vozarine su porasle u prvih 9 mjeseci, iako je prevezeno manje robe i zbog toga nije potrebno čekati zadnja dva mjeseca. Iako se brojke mogu već pronaci, ali one same po sebi ne igraju ulogu. Zašto? Još jednom, vozarine su rasle u prvih 9 mjeseci, kad je prevezeno manje robe nego 2019. a kad je prosjek vozarina bio puno manji, a uz to je sad brodova na tržištu ogromno više. Jasko može vrlo lagano dematirati brojke i to je to. Ili bilo tko. Po meni, tek ako su brojke lažne, onda je "analitičar" imao skrivene motive, jel tako?

Kako je sve poskupilo logično je da se nitko ne želi pretrpavati npr. Željeznom rudom ukoliko ne misli da ce jos dugo biti skupo ili skuplje. (Kome je trebalo masno je platio)

Ako dugo bude skupo u padu cijena 2027 😁 ce se trpati zalihe pa ce se i više prevesti.

Ako u 2022. bude skupo a potraznja galopira dvije Božje ruke će nas maziti.

Globalni cirkus,nema više pameti samo smijeh i plač.

Sastanak s rudarima odhodjen!

Indonesia talks on coal exports postponed as scores of ships in limbo

Indonesian authorities postponed a meeting with coal mining companies on Wednesday, as scores of ships moored off the coast remained in limbo as they waited to…

www.reuters.com

Evo jako dobar pregled stanja i outlooka

Shipping market outlook 2022 Container vs Dry bulk

The dry bulk and container market balance is expected to remain stable in the 2022, while freight rates may face correction when vaccines reduce pandemic…

ihsmarkit.com

Major bulk: iron ore, coal, and grain

In the same report - utilization index Q4 2021, IHS Markit predicts that the global dry bulk tonne-mile demand will increase by 3.3% in 2021, mainly driven by coal (6.1%) and minor bulk trade (13.0%). It will continue to grow by 4.5% in 2022, largely supported by global economic recovery-related industrial materials including iron ore (5.5%), coal (3.4%), and agricultural goods (5.1%).

More importantly, even if mainland China steel production may cease to increase, the rest of the world will eventually need to increase steel production to meet the anticipated global steel consumption growth in line with global urbanization and economic growth by 2-3% annually. This would cause steel product and iron ore trade pattern to change. The mainland Chinese market share in global iron ore imports will drop to less than 70% in the coming years from 80% in 2020. Since most of BOF fleet are situated in east Asia including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, iron ore tonne-mile-trade distance is expected to remain similar compared with the shipments heading to mainland China. Specifically, steel capacity constraints owing to decarbonization and environmental demands will drive the usage for higher grade and benefit Brazilian high-grade ore export growth. Also, Brazilian iron ore and pellet capacity will continue to grow and is forecast to reach about 500 metric tons in 2023 with Vale hitting about 400 metric tons, although downside risk remains with reduced production of low margin product. Therefore, we expect Brazilian ore exports to grow by 8.4% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023 as the pandemic and license-related supply constraint issues are resolved.

On the contrary, we believe that the peak coal trade had ended in 2019 with limited new investment in the coal sector. With the recovery in energy demand and high gas prices, thermal coal demand is expected to remain strong with growth of 5.4% in 2021 and 1.2% in 2022 but will remain stagnant thereafter in line with the global energy mix shift; environmental policies that favor renewables and gas over thermal coal, and favor scrap over coking coal. Metallurgical coal trade will recover from its 2020 levels and grow in 2021 (4.8% y/y) and 2022 (5.0% y/y) but annual growth will start to slow once it is near its 2019 levels.

Our assumption for the agricultural trade demand outlook remains unchanged. Agricultural shipments will continue to grow in the coming years with a structural shift in appetite of emerging countries towards meat in line with urbanization.

Soybean trade has been slow in 2021 mainly owing to limited end-stock, but the trade growth will continue during 2022-23 as mainland China will increase its meat consumption. Mainland China's soybean imports started to recover from the African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2019 and 2021/22 soybean imports are forecast to be up 10% from 2017/18. With weaker grain and soybean shipments from the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021, stronger Brazilian grain season is expected in early 2022.

Corn trade is expected to increase during 2021-23 mainly from the U.S. and mainland China routes with the trade deal, incentivizing agricultural trade. Ukrainian and U.S. corn will increase market share in the coming months until South American corn season starts in the second quarter of 2022.

Wheat trade growth has been flat in 2021 owing to the pandemic and the tax issues from Russia, but will recover during 2022-23 with high feeding demand; the strength in feed grain demand offsets the negative tonnemile impact from the recovery of Australian exports, resulting in strong Black Sea exports.

With limited newbuilding contract and orderbook, dry bulk fleet growth will slow to 3.4% in 2021, 2.3% in 2022, compared with 4.1% in 2020.

Quote from Shogun

Sastanak s rudarima odhodjen!

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe…ces-2022-01-05/

Neka bude i 7 dana stopiranja sad smo vec na 5, dodat ce nesto na supply i demand pricu u ovoj godini, a i na congestion jer ce se skupit brodovi koji ce cekat na teret.

StatusQuo

Slazem se. Indoneziji odgovara porast cijene ugljena a danas je vec preskocio 180 dolara.

A i Kina zatvara luke zbog Covida (Ningbo) tako da i tu ce doci do zastoja brodova.

Da jednu stvar razjasnimo. Ja nigdje nisam napisao da ce 2022. biti loša, nego sam samo napisao da BDI nije rastao na temelju potražnje, nego na temelju jednokratnih događaja koji se nisu mogli predvidjeti. Ne razumijem kako vama to nije jasno? Nekolicina vas je izjavila da je znala da ce BDI biti jak ove godine vec u svibnju prošle godine i da su krenuli kupovati brodare tad. Vi ste vjerojatno mislili na potražnju, jel tako? Da ce ona biti snažna. Ili?

Ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati trgovinski rat između Kine i Australije, a koji se tad još nije dogodio, onda dobro.

Ili ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati to što ce Kina zadržati oko 70 brodova u svojim lukama mjesecima, onda dobro.

Ili ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati kiše u Brazilu u siječnju i veljači, koje brodovima nisu dozvolile ukrcaj robe oko dva mjeseca, pa je veliki broj njih morao čekati na ukrcaj, onda dobro.

Ili ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati to što ce jaka zima smrznuti Kinu i pojačati potražnju za ugljenom, onda dobro. Ta ista zima ce i okovati luke. Isto i za prognozu o toplom ljetu. Tu spada i vaša prognoza o plinu iz Rusije i svađi oko Sjevernog toka 2, koja je nabila cijenu plina u Europi i ponovo učinila ugljen prihvatljivim.

Ili ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati to što ce brod zatvoriti sueski kanal, onda dobro.

Ili ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati to što ce biti izniman broj uragana, a najveci u Americi, koji ce na mjesec dana zatvoriti luke i ostaviti brodove da čekaju ispred njih, onda dobro.

Ili ako ste mislili da ce BDI pogurati to što ce ogromne kiše pogoditi kininu pokrajnu u kojoj se vadi najviše ugljena, u periodu kad im fali baš njega, onda dobro.

Uz to ste znali i za iznimnu potražnju za kontejnerima koji ce blokirati luke, i da ce potražnja za njima povisiti toliko cijene da ce mnogi prebaciti prijevoz iz kontejnera u dry bulk brodove, onda super.

Također ste naravno znali i da ce Kina držati brodove po dva tjedna ispred svojih luka u karanteni kako bi suzbila coronu i na taj način iznimno smanjila dostupnost brodova.

Ekipa koja je sve to prognozirala nije samo odličan investitor, nego i prorok.

Pokušajmo još jednom. U prvih 10 mjeseci niti jedne robe nije prevezeno više nego 2019., a BDI indeks je bio u prosjeku nekoliko puta veci. Uz to je brodova na tržištu više od 10% nego te godine. Tko ne može dokuciti da za takav rast indeksa nije „kriva“ potražnja, nego nešto sasvim drugo, njegov problem. Brojke i logika su jedno, prognoze, želje i očekivanja drugo.

Za tablicu koju je postavio StatusQuo može se vidjeti da je napravljena prije korone 2020.g i nema uporište u realnim brojkama. To su samo prognoze koje su se očekivale, a kao što znamo, 2020 je bila jako loša, a ne s rastom od 2,6%

Kakve su vrijednosti brodova ovih dana, jasko ?

U svibnju 2020. migra. Ne 2021 godine. Jer su brodari počeli vani rasti vec oko 8. mjeseca 2020.g, i rasli su do 9. mj ove godine. Svađa Kine i Australije je počela negdje u 5. mj 2020., ali je ojačala oko studenog te godine zabranom uvoza ugljena. Ali dobro. To su sve nebitne stvari, zar ne? Brojke i onako ne igraju bitnu ulogu. Datumi još manje. Pričekat cemo još dva mjeseca pa onda dajte ukupan presjek minule godine.

...a onda je u veljači 2022. godine počela Olimpijada u Kini, događaj koji nitko nije očekivao. I tko bi rekao da se gospodarska aktivnost usporila jer su Kinezi imali političku plavog neba, a nakon početka Olimpijade sve je krenulo prema gore. Božja ruka isto je u 2022. godini neočekivano povećala proizvodnju ćumura 6%, što nitko nije očekivao osim što su početkom godine svi izvijestili o tome, ali gdje su brojevi? Kontejneri ispred LA/LB luke i dalje u stotinama čekaju na istovar, ali potpuno neočekivano kava ide u break-bulk, ne bi nitko to rekao. Knjiga narudžbi za dry bulk nikad tanja, svi bi htjeli kontejneraše, ali dajte mi tu neke brojeve, brojeve mi dajte, ali samo one koji mi pašu, jer one koji mi ne pašu ne priznajem. Ajde, ajde, analizirajte, radite nešto.

Chinese Food Security Ambitions to Continue to Fuel Seaborne Imports of Grains and Oilseeds — Breakwave Advisors

Increasing the domestic output of staples for Chinese consumers

www.breakwaveadvisors.com

During the last few years, China has signalled that it aims to boost its food security by increasing the domestic output of many staples for Chinese consumers. The country’s ministry of agriculture reaffirmed the ambition in the final days of last year. Among other things, the Chinese leadership wants the nation to produce 95 per cent of the pork required for the domestic market by 2025 and be fully self-sufficient for poultry and eggs. Domestic pork production has suffered over the last few years, as the African swine flu decimated the hog herd in the world’s largest market for pork meat. However, after an extensive programme to restore the country’s pig numbers, the size of the flock has reached a six-year high and is seventeen per cent larger than when the disease struck. Pork futures in China also shed some fifty per cent during last year, as the supply situation improved in the country.

Last year’s rapid reestablishment of the hog herd helped push Chinese seaborne imports of grains and oilseeds to a new record. According to data from cargo tracking platform Oceanbolt, almost 160 million tonnes were discharged in Chinese ports during the past twelve months, beating the previous year by eight per cent.

The Panamax segment has long dominated Chinese seaborne imports of agricultural commodities, with average annual volumes accounting for 88 per cent of cargoes carried since 2015. Last year’s increasing imports primarily benefitted the Panamaxes. Especially as the largest vessels, the Capesizes, retreated following a brief foray into the trade during 2020 when their freight rates were low, and the segment clinched some five per cent of cargoes carried.

Most Recent Changes in China — Breakwave Advisors

A contraction is still not a positive development

www.breakwaveadvisors.com

The most recent data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) shows daily crude steel output at large and medium-sized mills averaged 1.89 million tons during December 11 - December 20. This is 2% lower than was seen during the previous ten days but is still well above this year's low (steel output reached a low of 1.76 million tons in late November). On a year-on-year basis, this production level is down by 14%. A 14% year-on-year contraction is still not a positive development in its own right, but remaining of note is that steel output during September, October, and November all contracted on a year-on-year basis by over 20%.

Also of note is that flat and construction steel stockpiles at warehouses in major cities began this week at 10.3 million tons. This is down week-on-week by 300,000 tons (-3%) but up year-on-year by 1.8 million tons (21%).

In the iron ore market, of note is that 155.8 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports. This is 1.7 million tons (-1%) less than was stockpiled a week ago but is up year-on-year by 28.8 million tons (23%). Previously, stockpiles had increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Also of note is that global iron ore prices have climbed even higher. Spot benchmark Australian iron ore, for example, began this week at approximately $116/ton FOB. This is up week-on-week by $7 (6%).

Elsewhere, of note is that the most recent data as of December 26th shows coal stockpiles at China's six major coastal power plants remain at 11.7 million tons. This is unchanged from the previous week and is down year-on-year by 2.8 million tons (-19%). Also of note and significant is that the daily coal burn rate at the six major coastal power plants has come in at 877,000 tons, which marks the highest daily burn rate ever seen. The previous daily burn rate record was 855,000 tons back in mid-July, and as another point of reference the daily burn rate a year ago stood at 701,000 tons. The coastal power plant stockpiles are now able to meet 13 days of demand. Prior to this week, there was no period in 2021 or 2020 where stockpiles were able to meet only 13 days of demand.

Quote from stipe_Cro

Kakve su vrijednosti brodova ovih dana, jasko ?

Bez promjena.........

Pogledajmo i orderbook.............

Pogledajte Year-over-Year (Y-o-Y)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 19535 451

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 27117 94

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 23365 -450

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 24024 -943

BDI INDEX 2296 +7