DRY BULK

Netko me u jednom postu posjetio na ovaj problem BWTS s nekim komentarom ne znam tko je bio da sad repliciram, htio sam replicirat ali nisam se odma sitio kakvo je stanje tocno znam da sam jednom prije par mjeseci komentirao, sad sam malo jos osvjezio znanje kakvo je stanje, mislim da se ne dovoljno to spominje, a ocito ce to bit jedan od dodatnih razloga zbog cega ce suply biti nizi jos dodatno kroz naredne dvi godine, a vjerovatno s peakom u 2022 zbog toga, a moguce je ocekivat i delay u brodogradilistima i bottleneck, s tim da i EEXI brzo stize uz to.

ClassNK: Large number of ships still waiting for 2022 to install BWM systems

ClassNK said that the installation deadlines based on the BWMS Convention for many of its registered ships are still concentrated in 2022.

www.offshore-energy.biz

January 5, 2021, by Jasmina Ovcina

Ship classification society Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (ClassNK) said that the installation deadlines based on the BWMS Convention for many of its registered ships are still concentrated in the year 2022.

As of the end of November 2020, 7,220 of the 9,159 ships registered with ClassNK are obligated to install BWMS in accordance with the BWM Convention. Among these, 3,982 ships have completed the installation, leaving 3,238 ships that still require attention.

Global BWTS retrofit orders to rise by 700 pct

In the coming period, global yards are expected to carry out 875 ballast water treatment system (BWTS) installations per month - a roughly 700% increase on the…

www.offshore-energy.biz

June 29, 2021, by Fatima Bahtić

In the coming period, global yards are expected to carry out 875 ballast water treatment system (BWTS) installations per month – a roughly 700% increase on the level of recent years.

According to Clarksons Research, around 35,000 vessels still need to install BWTS with only 40 months remaining until IMO’s 2024 deadline.

Large part of global fleet may miss D-2 standard deadline

There are only 1,000 days left until the D-2 ballast water treatment standard deadline, so why do so many vessels still require BWMS installations?

www.rivieramm.com

Large part of global fleet may miss D-2 standard deadline

14 Dec 2021by Craig Jallal

One criteria to meet the D-2 standard ballast water treatment standard is to have an effective ballast water management system (BWMS) installed. With 1,000 days to go, only 22% of the global fleet has done so

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 24003 -3134

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 23630 -1063

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 27649 -311

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 28030 -129

BDI INDEX 2498 -167

bdi -6,27%

bci -11,55%

bpi -4,30%

bsi -1,10%

bhsi -0,45%

LOW growth supply is likely to be a driver of the dry bulk market next year, according to Arrow Shipbroking.

New deliveries are expected to slow significantly over the next two years, leading to a sharp drop in fleet growth, it said in its outlook presentation, and despite higher contracting this year, the orderbook is at the lowest level since 2005.

Average trade growth of 2.5% per year between 2022 and 2024 would outweigh a fleet expansion of 2.1% over the same period, which should support vessel earnings, it said.

The widest gap in trade to fleet growth in 2022 was in the handysize segment, at a respective 4.9% versus 0.9%, followed by supramax, and panamax. Capesizes had the narrowest ratio, at 2.1% versus 1.9%, the brokerage's research showed. https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1139298/Dry-…d-supply-growth

Taylor Maritime Investments (TMI) expects the buoyant bulker market to last another two to three years. https://www.tradewindsnews.com/bulkers/taylor…22m/2-1-1123762

Što se tiče ovih mojih jučerašnjih komentara o proizvodnji čelika u Kini, možemo se ne slagati sa pogledom u budućnost po tom pitanju, ali prozivati me da crnjačim jer ne očekujem spektakl u proizvodnji čelika, a time se onda krivo implicira da time podrazumijevam da će i vozarine padati je stupidno, što ću pokušati u dvije-tri rečenice pojasniti.

Vozarine ovise o balansu PONUDE i POTRAŽNJE - ponude brodova i potražnje za brodovima. Taj odnos se manifestira kroz promjenu globalne utilizaciju flote, pa se onda odražava i na vozarine. Imamo dakle dvije osnovne varijable - rekli bi da je to jednadžba sa dvije nepoznanice.

Proizvodnja čelika je samo jedna od komponenti varijable potražnje, a koja opet ovisi o mnogim sub varijablama. U slučaju da recimo baš ta proizvodnja čelika u jednom trenutku padne, to ne implicira da će automatski i vozarine pasti, jer se nešto ipak pita i drugu stranu, stranu ponude, ali također i sve druge sub komponentne te strane potražnje koje mogu potencijalno možda baš rasti (ugljen, žitarice, stimulusi, divljanje energenata i slično).

Ponuda brodova opet ovisi o mnogočemu, a o čemu manje-više svemu i ovdje pišemo. Tu su orderbook, scrap, congestion, brzina flote, cijena goriva, razni pročišćivati i novi standardi... svašta nešto.

Zato, moguće je da vozarine budu ili ostanu visoke usprkos potencijalnom padu proizvodnje čelika u Kini. Pad prozvodnje čelika ne implicira automatski pad vozarina.

Neću dalje.

PS. Vidim da uz kolegicu Ivana7 ima još frustiranih individua. Puno pozdrava kolegi BudFox.

Od dry bulka nema interesantnijeg ulaganja na zse.

Bilo dugoročnije ili trade.

Pošto toliko tog treba vrtiti, pratiti livo oko me boli već 6 dana od piljenja po ekranima pa ako ima neko preporuku za neku mast ili kapi 😂

Osušiti ćemo se isprid ekrana potraje li dobar ciklus do 2026+

Samo veselo,biti će za svih

A što se ograničavati na zse kad na svijetu imaš šta hoćeš.

A zamisli da na zse imaš kontejneraša na p/e 2.5 sa 90% ugovorene 2022 i 70% ugovorene 2023 po odličnim cijenama, da nema velika straha gdje će harpex sutra ili bdi.

Quote from Hrx84

A što se ograničavati na zse kad na svijetu imaš šta hoćeš.

A zamisli da na zse imaš kontejneraša na p/e 2.5 sa 90% ugovorene 2022 i 70% ugovorene 2023 po odličnim cijenama, da nema velika straha gdje će harpex sutra ili bdi.

Krivo si se izrazio. Sve stoji što si napisao, ali negdje moraš reći i da možeš gledati kako pada. Znači, vani imaš kontejneraša na p/e 2.5 itd i nema straha da će harpex pasti ili bdi, pa ga možeš gledati kako pada. Jel.

Volatilan je kao i sve ostalo, naravno da pada, možda otrese 30% dolje ako padne market ozbiljnije. Samo kažem čega vani ima.

Zašto se držati Atpl i tpng ko pijan plota kad ima boljeg izbora vani od njih koliko hoćeš.

Quote from Hrx84

Volatilan je kao i sve ostalo, naravno da pada, možda otrese 30% dolje ako padne market ozbiljnije. Samo kažem čega vani ima.

Zašto se držati Atpl i tpng ko pijan plota kad ima boljeg izbora vani od njih koliko hoćeš.

I volatilnosti. Iako u posljednje vrijeme lokalni špekulanti se vode tržištem preko oceana za donošenje lokalnih investicijskih odluka što nije baš do kraja opravdano. Sve je manje dugoročnih investitora. Većina njih su špekulanti. Spekukacija je slatka al na njoj ne možeš iz manjeg kapitala ostvariti višestruke zarade (rijetki mogu).

Kad se okrenete iza sebe gdje ste većinu kapitala stekli? Na razvijenim tržištima ili lokalno odnosno regionalno?

Quote from Hrx84

A što se ograničavati na zse kad na svijetu imaš šta hoćeš.

A zamisli da na zse imaš kontejneraša na p/e 2.5 sa 90% ugovorene 2022 i 70% ugovorene 2023 po odličnim cijenama, da nema velika straha gdje će harpex sutra ili bdi.

Pa vjerovatno je i atlantska bar min na 3,3 p/e ove godine s ovom cijenom i vjerovatno bar oko 60-65 % ugovorene 2022 po nekim mojim pretpostavkama i Jdpl 2 p/e al s manjom % ugovorenoscu u 2022. s tim da moguce da bude nize i za jednu i drugu p/e ovo sam onako na brzinu bacio racunicu, a trebalo bi gledat i Ebitda isto kad se tako usporedjuje.

Lokalno, u vremenima kad je kod nas gotovo sve bilo podcijenjeno.

I puno je vremena trebalo. Vani tek nešto ozbiljnije pokušavam zadnje dvije-tri godine.

In a survey conducted by the Chamber, about 95% contractors said they are experiencing at least one product shortage in the fourth quarter, with steel representing the most-reported product shortage by 27% of respondents, according to a statement.

Nearly half of the contractors pegged the steel supply and pricing problems on the US' Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs. About 47% of respondents said the tariffs will have a high to very-high degree of impact on their business over the next three years.

The US is set to replace the tariffs on the EU with a tariff-rate quota system in January. Additionally, the government is now in talks with the UK, Japan and South Korea to negotiate similar adjustments to the tariffs.

China's steel output rebounded on a monthly basis for the first time in seven months in November, and this upward trend is likely to continue in December and beyond as steelmakers ramp up after completing 2021 output cut requirements in November and see an improvement in margins.

Expectations of additional monetary easing and supportive policies in the property and infrastructure sectors in 2022 were boosting sentiment for steel demand, and these would help offset the rise in supply, industry sources said.

China is expected to continue to cap its steel production in 2022 within 2021 levels as it aims to achieve its carbon goals.But steelmakers, who completed their mandatory output cut requirements for 2021 by the end of November would try to boost their production in December, so that there will be more output quotas for 2022, some market sources said.

China's crude steel output in the first quarter of 2022 may remain close to but would not exceed the level of 3.01 million mt/day seen in Q1 2021, sources said, adding that Q1 2022 output would be still much higher than November's level.

Some sources said the key problem behind the slowdown in construction in both the property and infrastructure sectors was lack of financing or funding. China tightened liquidity for the two sectors for most of 2021 in a bid to address debt risks. However, in order to ensure steady economic growth for 2022, China in December started loosening its monetary policy, eased financing restrictions in the property sector and accelerated fiscal spending.

More of such proactive policies are expected to be introduced in 2022, aimed at cushioning the slowdown in property investment, while at the same time, boosting infrastructure investment to stabilize economic growth, market participants said.

Although all these stimulus policies can only reach the property and infrastructure sectors by the end of Q1 or even Q2 2022, some sources said the steel market outlook has improved due to anticipation of further monetary policy easing next year.

China's recent pledge to make stabilizing economic growth its top priority in 2022 and reserve ratio cuts are leading to signals of further monetary policy easing in 2022, with policies on both steel demand and supply side expected to be eased in a bid to support stable economic growth next year, market participants and industry watchers told S&P Global Platts.

China's top decision-making body the Politburo in a Dec. 6 meeting came out in support of economic growth through more proactive fiscal and monetary policies.

On the same day, China's central bank announced lowering banks' reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and on Dec. 7 cut interest rates on relending to rural and small local banks by 0.25 percentage points.

Nick Ristic

It’s that time of year again - happy holidays

Quote from mulac

Nick Ristic

It’s that time of year again - happy holidays

Izvrstan osvrt u sroku i stihu. Pohvale Ristiću.

Coal stocks across key global hubs remained at a historic low at the end of August, driven by a global supply shortfall and recovery in demand

Global coal stocks extend decline | Argus Media

Coal stocks across key global hubs remained at a historic low at the end of August, driven by a global supply shortfall and recovery in demand, according to…

www.argusmedia.com

Coal output seen rising to record highs in 2022

Coal-fired electricity generation will hit this year a record of 10,350 terawatt-hours, according to new @IEA
report

Baltic CAPESIZE index -6%

Brazil/China -7% to $17k/d
Jan FFA -5% to $18k/d

16.11.2021

Route Description Size Value($) Change

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 25406 -2653

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 22277 -1795

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 24863 -27

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 28474 -214

BDI INDEX 2430 -161

17.12.2021

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 24003 -3134

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 23630 -1063

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 27649 -311

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 28030 -129

BDI INDEX 2498 -167

Sve osim capova izgleda bolje ili isto nego prije mjesec dana...stabilne i dobre vozarine za brodove domaćih kompanija za cijeli Q4

Bdi - 4,76%

BCI - 5,76%

Bpi - 6,93%

Bhi - 0,64%

Bhsi - 1,79%