DRY BULK

BCI 5TC 30972 +712

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 30972 712
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 36912 -240
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 31798 -74
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 29720 255

BDI Index 3300 +19

Orderbook za cape-ove je trenutno navodno najniži u povijesti.

Current orderbook:

Capesize: 5.9%

Panamax: 6.15%

We are now at levels for Capesize not seen since EVER (my data goes back to 1996).

Ovako izgleda za flotu, trend je za sada stabilan

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/no-letup-yet-i…markable-rally/

“We believe a perfect storm of underlying supply and demand fundamentals is shaping up in the dry bulk segment, which could boost charter rates and asset values in the coming years,”

Još malo vezano za EEXI i procjenu usporavanja flote do 2030.

Even with the very weak current IMO regulations, UNCTAD expects the fleet to slow by 6.7% this decade. An extra ~1% of new ship capacity per year will be needed to offset in addition to ~2% per year to replace old ships. Compare this to a drybulk orderbook of just 5.6% today.

Quote from mitkko

Još malo vezano za EEXI i procjenu usporavanja flote do 2030.

Even with the very weak current IMO regulations, UNCTAD expects the fleet to slow by 6.7% this decade. An extra ~1% of new ship capacity per year will be needed to offset in addition to ~2% per year to replace old ships. Compare this to a drybulk orderbook of just 5.6% today.

Prenosim razmisljanje jednog analiticara:

Drybulk demand grew at a CAGR of 4.7% per year since China was admitted to the WTO. Even if this slows SIGNIFICANTLY to 2.5%, this means to maintain the very tight supply/demand balance we see today, we will need 5%+ of new ship capacity to deliver each year this decade.

In DWT (capacity terms) this 5%+ per year of new ships needed is equivalent to ~50M DWT. This is more ship capacity than has been built in each of the past 8 years. Although not a problem in isolation, shipyards are already full through 2023 ships from other fast growing sectors.

Over the same 8 year period shipbuilding capacity has actually been contracting and expected to contract further. All other sectors will need the same extra ~1% of new capacity per year to offset slow steaming and shipbuilding capacity is already sold out before this effect.

With shipbuilding capacity for large ships sold out through 2023 despite one of the lowest cross-sector orderbooks in history on a percentage basis of the global fleet, it is clear that shipbuilding capacity will be grossly insufficient by 2024.

Despite persistently high rates in the last cycle starting in 2003, it took many years to build enough shipbuilding capacity and then many more years to build enough ships to meet demand leading to a 7 year period of very high drybulk shipping profits.

Although every cycle is different and this is NOT the last cycle, many of the same forces are at work. I expect an extended period of high profitability as forces constraining supply will cause supply to consistently lag demand making shipping a top performer in the coming years.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/no-letup-yet-i…markable-rally/

Zanimljiv clanak posebno detalj o porastu cijene brodova

I nasi dnevni portali su poceli pisati o rastu brodarskih dionica na burzi.

Brodarske kompanije lani grebale po dnu, a ove godine njihove su dionice pravi burzovni hit

https://www.tportal.hr/biznis/clanak/…-burzi-20210712

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 31266 294

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 36626 -286

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 31702 -96

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 29735 15

BDI Index 3300 flat

Freight futures am update

Capesize down ~2%

Panamax down ~1%

Quote from mitkko

I nasi dnevni portali su poceli pisati o rastu brodarskih dionica na burzi.

Brodarske kompanije lani grebale po dnu, a ove godine njihove su dionice pravi burzovni hit

https://www.tportal.hr/biznis/clanak/…-burzi-20210712

dobra reklama, ove brojke i postoci vrijede više nego svi postovi na forumu, koje nitko nije vidio od onih što štede u bankama, ovo ipak djeluje razumljivo i jasnije

Ma nema pomame na zse u nicemu. To vam je kao sa turizmom svatko je u to krenio kad je doslo na vrhunac, tako ocekujte sa brodarima kad mi krenemo izlazit na xxxx dragi citaoci ce pocet ulazit jer ce o tome citat u slobodnoj i indexu. Strpljivo

Zalihe ugljena su jako nisko, i to sve usred toplinskog vala. Izgleda da nam uskoro slijedi još jedan nagli skok potražnje za ugljenom.

Coal stocks slumped below 4 Mt at Qinhuangdao port, a major thermal coal transfer hub in northern China, as long-term contract deliveries gained strength in the week ending on Jul 9.

Kalkuliraju zbog visokih vozarina.. pa kad bude da nema čekanja, bit će veselo

bdi i vozarine danas?.....imal' tko?.....

Quote from hugh

bdi i vozarine danas?.....imal' tko?.....

Route Description Size Value ($) Change
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 30272 -994
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 35734 -892
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 31512 -190
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 29881 146

BDI INDEX 3228 -72

SENTIMENT DEFINES SHIPPING

https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2021/…behind-shipping

Vrijednost brodova raste 2% tjedno, stvarno ludo! Trenutno stvarno ne vidim bolje ulaganje od bulkera. Sta jos raste 2% tjedno?

Quote from mitkko

Vrijednost brodova raste 2% tjedno, stvarno ludo! Trenutno stvarno ne vidim bolje ulaganje od bulkera. Sta jos raste 2% tjedno?

A ništa, kupi jedan brod i s njim u garažu. Prodaš ga iduće godine po duplo višoj cijeni. 🙂

Quote from mitkko

Vrijednost brodova raste 2% tjedno, stvarno ludo! Trenutno stvarno ne vidim bolje ulaganje od bulkera. Sta jos raste 2% tjedno?

Pa sad kad vec pitate...ako pogledate skroz desno vidite da nesto raste i vise od 2% tjedno a to su kontejnerasi. Onda pogledamo njihove relevantne indekse i vidimo da su na ath, rastu iz tjedna u tjedan do razina da nas bdi izgleda smijesan a recimo da (neke) dionice to bas i nisu popratile