DRY BULK

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 29278 -1658
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 17252 21
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 15363 -128
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 16134 -125

BDI INDEX 2150 -69

Greece has advised commercial vessels sailing in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to avoid Yemeni waters, keep only the necessary crew on the bridge and follow alerts issued by maritime authorities to avoid attacks in the area.

Greek ship-owners control about 20% of the world’s commercial vessels in terms of carrying capacity.…

Članak

And yet, bulk danas u padu..

Širi se radius,

Drone hits merchant ship in Indian Ocean

A merchant ship in the Indian Ocean fell victim to a drone strike, causing a fire onboard, as reported by the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations and maritime security firm Ambrey.

The Liberian-flagged tanker, affiliated with Israel, had recently visited Saudi Arabia and was en route to India. The incident occurred 200 kilometers southwest of Veraval, India, resulting in structural damage and water intake.

The vessel's Israel affiliation raises questions about motives, as it bears resemblance to previous drone and missile attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement in the Red Sea.

Moglo bi sve eksplodirati. Doslovno.

Zadar je ovih dana molitveni centar za mir u svijetu.🙏😇

Uvik kontra svita

Doće maca na vratanca 😉🤟

In 2024, grain exports from the southern hemisphere could increase by 5-6%, driven by Argentina’s large harvests. This, paired with the above average sailing distances for Argentinian grain shipments, would support demand for ships in the panamax and supramax segments.

Cape vozarine na početku godine zadnjih 10g

cape up 4%

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 31497 1215
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14993 -550
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 13337 -263
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12518 -365

BDI INDEX 2110 +24

U Crvenom moru problemi sa Hutima, u Africi se probudili Somalski pirati. Ratni rizici na Crnom moru zbog rata, suša u Panamskom kanalu. Ne ulazeći u stanje ponude i potražnje za brodskim prostorom, već se sad nazire da će vozarine biti jako dobre čak i u prvom kvartalu. Kruh sa sedam kora, ali nitko ne nosi glavu u torbi besplatno…

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As of January 5, 389 container vessels accounting for 5.4 million TEUs of capacity (~22% of global capacity) are actively diverting, will divert, or have already diverted the Suez Canal. This is out of ~664 vessels that typically transit the Suez Canal.

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India’s navy said its commandos have secured a bulk carrier after its attempted hijack in the Arabian Sea.

The Liberian-flagged capesize Lila Norfolk was boarded on January 4 by six armed people while underway in waters some 460 nautical miles off Somalia.

S tim u vezi, od prosinca su troškovi dostave robe iz Azije u Sjevernu Europu porasli za 173% i sada iznose oko 9.000 tisuća dolara po kontejneru.

■ U 10 dana počevši od 23. prosinca 2023., tranzit kroz Sueski kanal smanjio se za 28%, što je 3,1% od 14% globalnog brodskog prometa koji se odvija kroz Sueski kanal.

■ Osiguranje na ruti Sueski kanal-Bab el-Mandebski tjesnac poraslo je za 300–500%.

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 29851 -1646
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14449 -544
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 13138 -199
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12247 -271
BDI INDEX 2022 -88

Freight Futures AM Update

Dry Bulk
Capesize: down ~9%
Panamax: down ~6%

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 26941 -2910
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 13810 -639
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 12780 -358
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 11907 -340
BDI INDEX 1875 -147

Freight Futures AM Update

Dry Bulk
Capesize: down ~7%
Panamax: down ~4%

Prosle godine u ovo vrime vozarine za capove su bile 10 000 dolara, ove godine su na 22 000 dolara. Kineska nova godina je ove godine malo kasnije, 10.2. Ovo sto trenutno pratimo je klasican pad zbog sezonalnosti, ali su vozarine odlicne za ovo doba godine. Pareto je nakon dvije godine, upravo stavio Google na buy, na 13 dolara. To ga je povuklo danas gore 5 posto. Vjerojatno ce vecina dry bulk dionica danas rasti jer je i po njima nakon dvi godine ovo godina u kojoj ce dry bulkeri zaradivati. Zalihe u Kini su na niskim razinama. Takoder se i ja kladim na ozbiljan rast nakon kineske nove godine.

U Cleavesu su izgleda napravili grešku i pod prognoze za 2024. su podvalili vozarine iz 2023. na str1

Str1

Na str 13 trebala bi biti stvarna prognoza

Str 13

A mnogi pogledaju samo prvu stranicu....

Kod većine analitičara još vlada oprez, npr. Cleaves u većini slučajeva drži hold preporuku za bulk. Ali trguju se na bitno višem P/NAV-u nego naši brodari.

Stvari su malo zakuhali norvežani (HSHO NO; 2020 NO iz tablice), njihov CEO g. Herman Billung koji se slaže sa KicanCRO pa je izjavio prije 5 dana "Mislim da 2024. godina može biti dobra, ali 2025. i poslije toga mislim može biti ekstremno dobra. Gotovo nema naručenih brodova.... trenutno se nalazim u Kini i ovdje je maksimalni pritisak.... gledajući capesize indeks preskočio je 31.000 usd u trenutku kada su očekivanja za siječanj bila tek između 10.000-12.000 usd pred nekoliko mjeseci. To pokazuje koliko je uski raskorak između ponude i potražnje, tako malo je potrebno... normalno, u ovom periodu imamo sezonalnu slabost, ali to je daleko od slučaja ove godine."

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A razlog njegovom dugoročnom optimizmu je između ostalog:

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World’s biggest mining project to start after 27 years of setbacks and scandals

Rio Tinto hopes $20bn Guinea iron ore, rail and port plan will pave way for ‘new era’ of mining

Groundworks have already started along the rail corridor and once Beijing approves Chinalco’s investment, Rio Tinto plans to begin mine construction. The first ore is expected to be shipped in 2025, ramping up to full production of 60mn tonnes a year by 2028, representing about 5 per cent of the global seaborne iron ore market.

Cijeli članak koga zanima više.

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 22362 -4579
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 13173 -637
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 12485 -295
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 11600 -307
BDI INDEX 1664 -211