DRY BULK

Quote from migra

Quote from migra

DA,osim ako nemaš škrge ronjenje na dah znači i brzi izron

Good Morning,

Iron ore prices have rallied in the latest session, up $11.10 or 5.9% to US$198.75 a tonne. (CFR Tianjin port)

hm.... hm...

Good Morning,

Iron ore surged by 10.3% or $19.55 to US$209.10 a tonne. (CFR Tianjin port)

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Good morning, Iron ore has firmed by 0.2% or $0.35 to US$209.45 a tonne

"coal is dead"

The world's coal producers are currently planning as many as 432 new mine projects with 2.28 billion tonnes of annual output capacity, research published on Thursday showed, putting targets for slowing global climate change at risk.

China, Australia, India and Russia account for more than three quarters of the new projects, according to a study by U.S. think-tank Global Energy Monitor. China alone is now building another 452 million tonnes of annual production capacity,

nedavno smo ovdje postali o problemima na Parana river radi vodostaja,situacija se dodatno pogoršala,ali za dry bulk poboljšala.

Brazil’s worst water crisis in almost a century will impact river navigation and make transportation of goods more expensive in the world’s largest exporter of commodities ranging from soybeans to coffee and sugar.

Quote from migra

Quote from migra

hm.... hm...

Good Morning,

Iron ore surged by 10.3% or $19.55 to US$209.10 a tonne. (CFR Tianjin port)

Good morning, Iron ore has firmed by 0.2% or $0.35 to US$209.45 a tonne

Good morning

Iron ore pushed higher in the last day, up by 0.8% or $1.75 to US$211.20 a tonne (CFR Tianjin port)

Increasing US Coal movements bucking prior years declining trends on high export prices. Asia is short on coal. US to Asia coal trade = mega drybulk ton miles.

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Very high thermal coal prices in Asia

https://t.co/4bPI90TLm1?amp=1

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India steel production growth will need massive amounts of imported coking coal. 40 million tons of new production from the Elga mine in Russia seems destined for India

poduže štivo ali puno zanimljive materije  ¸

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rus…a-idUSKBN2CG18W

DA, za capesize "su ključna sljedeća 2 tjedna" ali svi znamo da on može u danu up 10-20% pa....

manja braća "plove" više nego stabilno pa..

Baltic Capesize index -5% to $21k/d
Brazil/China -4% to $21k/d

Jul FFA -4% to $30k/d
Aug FFA -0% to $33k/d

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-main-in…pesize-segment/

Capesize futures are at a steep contango versus spot, but in reality the spot index is approaching an important inflection point that in the past has turned rates around. As chart below shows, early-to-mid June has been a consolidation period for Capesizes (bold line is 2021)

demand na svjetskoj razini jača svakim danom i taj trend će još dodatno pojačati kako će covid utjecaj slabiti.

kina ne može spriječiti glad svijeta za čelikom,ona može samo nešto smanjiti vlastitu ali to bi imaloi svoju veliku cijenu.

time bi i prepustili drugima ono za što se desetljećima borili,za dominaciju u tom sektoru koji je i močna poluga međunarodnih odnosa.

ma ne vjerujem,bojim se da su oni premudri za "zapad",iz ničega su se zapadnjačkom tehnologijom i svim ostalim izdigli iznad.

toliko da već ima naznake paranoje na zapadu,pri tome ne ulazim u to koliko je opravdana.

nije se pazilo,duh je izašao iz boce i sada ostaje da vidimo kakva mu je narav?

obično su svi duhovi dobri dok moraju biti takvi a kada više ne moraju,manje željeni scenarij je izgledniji....

to je iz današnje perspektive ipak daleka budućnost pa.....

da vidimo tko će prije toga uzeti ono što se nudi na dry bulku....

i tko će koliko uzeti a sve upućuje da i dalje tika taka radi protiv onih koji drže da se stigne ...

2/3 Q2 su iza nas ,vozarine odlične,posebice za manju braću i bez naznaka popuštanja i usprkos značajnom psihološkom pritisku capesize segmenta.

prilično predvidljivo već danas za cijeli 2Q kada su avg vozarine u pitanju.

tik-tak,tik-tok ili tako nekako...

p.s.

trebalo bi biti nešto lakše donjeni odluku kada je i za 3Q po futuresima izgledan nastavak vrlo visokih vozarina.

moj naklon onima koji mogu i to ignorirati iz svojih razloga kao izgovor za nepreuzimanje ovog risk/rewarda.

možda i ja griješim,nebi bilo....

izrazito važnu ulogu oduvijek su u svjetskoj trgovini imali međunarodni odnosi,geopolitika....

ono sa Trumpom ne ponovilo se nikad više,upravo on je krivac što se je onaj rast dry bulka 2016-2017 prekinuo,praktično odgodilo se neizbježno,prolongiralo,samo je sada intenzitet tog oporavka bitno jači,mnogi ga drže nerealnim radi tog intenziteta ali to je upravo radi zanemarivanja te odgode gdje se sada sinergiziraju dodatno efekti odgode.

odnosi australija -kina odigrali su i dalje to čine sa velikom izglednošću da će toj i pojačati,veliku pozitivnu ulogu za dry bulk.

odnosi usa-kina su se izrazito poboljšali i sve upućuje da sljede još veće blagodati,da će kinezi voziti iz usa sve što je teoretski moguće,uključujući i coal a to su dodatne tonmilje od kojih ti se zavrti....

vrlo izgledno da će i to potrajati min o kraja bidenovog mandata,znači još 4 g.

više nego dovoljno da se na dry bulku materijalizira iz kategorije once in a lifetime opportunity.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-upbeat-o…-common-ground/

China hailed on Thursday the resumption of “normal discussions” with the United States on the trade and economic fronts, apparently keen to move beyond a trade war as it said both sides aimed to resolve issues pragmatically....

https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2021/…supramax-market

.....The Supramax market has gone from strength to strength so far this year, with these vessels now earning a premium over all of the other designs assessed by the Baltic Exchange. Since the start of the year, freight rates for these ships have surged by 138% to over $27,000 per day. This is the greatest YTD percentage gain of all of the dry asset classes, and while these ships often outperform Capes in weak markets, this kind of premium while the wider market is so strong is almost unheard of. Over the last few weeks, the Baltic’s assessed 58k dwt ship has also clawed back a premium to the 38k dwt Handy, after trading at near-parity last year.....