BCI 5TC 31317 -377
DRY BULK
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Pacific-basin benchmark coal prices have risen 14% this week to a four-week high with Chinese efforts to boost domestic production unlikely to completely offset import requirements this winter, analysts said on Thursday.
Broker Global Coal’s Newcastle index, a reference price for high-grade (6,000 kcal/kg) Australian coal, was assessed last up USD 20.31 on the week at USD 169/t but was still well below mid-October record highs in excess of USD 250/t.A 25,000t cargo for loading in December traded earlier this week at USD 163.50/t, via Global Coal.
Market participants said while Chinese domestic production had increased in recent weeks, there were limits to its potential output volumes, so it would still be in part reliant on imports to weather the winter demand season.
Falling stocks
“China seems to have reached top of it’s potential to ramp up [production] and now stocks at coastal utilities are also starting to come down,” said a coal analyst with a large producer.
ANZ Bank analysts agreed, noting “even though China has been able to boost daily output to more than 12m tonnes, it’s likely to need more stock if it’s to stave off power shortages this winter”.
As such, the Zhengzhou exchange’s most liquid thermal coal contract, for January 2022, settled last nearly 13% higher week on week at CNY 934.40/t (USD 146.30/t).
“The Chinese think they have enough for the winter but I think they will be buying later,” said a coal analyst with a Singapore-based trading house.
“I don’t think it’s that easy [for China] to maintain those production and transportation levels,” he added.
Meanwhile, the La Nina weather pattern – which has now become “established” and can result in heavy rainfall/flooding for key producing nations such as Australia and Indonesia – could further underpin prices, market participants said.
“Flooding in Australia could dent supply,” noted the first analyst.
ANZ analysts also said the weather system could push temperatures in China to well below seasonal norms and create another “energy crunch”.
Indian demand upturn
Meanwhile, in India, there had been some rise in imports, as generators continued to replenish stocks from recent multi-year low last month of just over 7m tonnes.
Coal inventories at plants were pegged last at 18.6m tonnes, up by almost a quarter on the week, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data showed.
“Imports are up, as prices have fallen from highs,” said one India-based coal trader, adding, however, a majority of the imports at present were of lower grade material from Indonesia.
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A fire at a Russian coal mine could impact 0.4m tonnes/month of coal supply to the seaborne market, amid an already tight market, sources said on Thursday.
The blaze broke out this morning at SDS-Ugol’s Listvyazhnaya mine in western Siberia, according to the region’s governor Sergei Tsivilev.“That’s approximately 0.4m tonnes/month out of the market,” said a Russian coal trader, close to the situation, adding the mine’s produce – of high-grade thermal coal – was mainly sold for export.
This comes at a time of already tight supply to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, which has seen front-quarter API 2 prices gain more than 20% since the start of the week to USD 156/t, at the time of writing.
An analyst with a utility also said the mine's output was predominantly shipped to European destinations, including Germany and Poland.
In a post to his Telegram account, Tsivilev said the ministry of emergency situations had received reports of smoke from the mine shortly after 09:00 local time.
He said 49 miners were still trapped underground, with one having died, although local media reported six deaths.
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China seems to have reached top of it’s potential to ramp up [production] and now stocks at coastal utilities are also starting to come down
To sam pokusavala objasniti nekima nedavno na temu china-coal. Tada su jos bili na bidu, sada se klade na suprotno.
He said 49 miners were still trapped underground, with one having died, although local media reported six deaths.
I najvavljivala sam novi val rudarskih nesreca u kini i drugdje kao posljedicu prenapregnutosti u proizvodnji.
Zima tek treba poceti ovih dana.
Kina je mogla ali nije htjela povecavati zalihe ugljena cijelo ljeto i jesen.
Veliki voda se zainatio da spusti cijenu koja ce bas sada jos vise explodirati radi te nezdrave opsesije da se manipulira svjetskim trzistem.
To su radili na iron ore i sada otpustaju SPR nafte.
Sljedeca je na redu nafta na 200$.
Tankerasi su na redu da pokupe plodove 🇨🇳CCP
Idemo dalje....
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Route Description Size Value($) Change
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 31317 -377
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 22404 999
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 25119 317
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 27640 -14
BDI INDEX 2678 +24
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Sta nas nisu ovdje neki uvjeravali jos u listopadu da kina moze proizvesti ugljena koliko treba, da su zalihe za 3 zime
Bla, bla...
Kao sto sam i tada pisala a moze biti samo gore.
Kina ima ugljena u slikovnicama i bajkama promo materijala🇨🇳CCPa.
CHINA ENERGY CRUNCH: A local government in China is resurrecting coal coupons -- a relic of Mao Zedong’s planned economy days -- to ensure its citizens have access to heating fuel. The coupons are good for 2 tonnes.
Bilo bi tragicno da nije presmijesno koliki godisnji suficit ostvaruju u razmjeni sa svijetom.medu zadnjima su koji nebi mogli platiti.
Nedavno sam napisala ako se zele smrznuti i zivjeti u mraku a nije im sila "tko ih....
Biti ce pametniji druge zime
Na proljece jer ce za ljeto biti bez frizidera i klime, tvornice zatvorene,kao nedavno pa je rast GDPa potonou.
Uskoro moraju pokrenuti visoke peci i opet ce iron ore >200$
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🇨🇳Drugovi i drugarice se samo mogu moliti svevisnjem da se ne zalede luke i brodovi a veliki dio meteorologa bas to najavljuje >2 mjeseca za ovu zimu.
Da ce biti jedna od najgorih.
Skupljajte drva, napravite zalihe hrane,kokica i pive i uzivajmo u najboljem hedgu na zimu.
Plinasi, kontejnerasi, bulkeri i tankerasi koji se tek bude a nafta je daleko najjeftiniji fosilni izvor tako da nece biti iznenadenje veliki rast demanda za heating oil.
A plina i ugljena ima manje tako da nema alternative.
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🇨🇳Drugovi i drugarice se samo mogu moliti svevisnjem da se ne zalede luke i brodovi a veliki dio meteorologa bas to najavljuje >2 mjeseca za ovu zimu.
Nemoj im to zeljeti jer ce onda i vozarine u podrum.
Ovdje kaze da su im zalihe skroz fajn.
Coal inventory recovered to level close to previous years for China major power plants
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. -
Ajmo opet na pozitivu: unatoč zalihama ugljena koje su na razini prošlih godina, vozarine su još $$$
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🇨🇳Drugovi i drugarice se samo mogu moliti svevisnjem da se ne zalede luke i brodovi a veliki dio meteorologa bas to najavljuje >2 mjeseca za ovu zimu.
Nemoj im to zeljeti jer ce onda i vozarine u podrum.
Ovdje kaze da su im zalihe skroz fajn.
Coal inventory recovered to level close to previous years for China major power plants
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. Dobar graf. Gdje ste to nasli?
Zanimljivo kako nakon D320 krene pad zaliha. Logicno, kuri se vise po zimi pa onda restock na proljece.
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Meni je zanimljiviji ovaj pad na D70. Kako to objasniti?
Kineska nova godina uzrokuje rast zaliha koji se brzo potroši zbog još uvijek jake zime i zahuktavanja industrije?
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🇨🇳Drugovi i drugarice se samo mogu moliti svevisnjem da se ne zalede luke i brodovi a veliki dio meteorologa bas to najavljuje >2 mjeseca za ovu zimu.
Nemoj im to zeljeti jer ce onda i vozarine u podrum.
Ovdje kaze da su im zalihe skroz fajn.
Coal inventory recovered to level close to previous years for China major power plants
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. Administrative Divisions
The People's Republic of China is divided into 33 administrative regions, there are 22 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities, and two special administrative regions (SAR).
Additionally, China claims sovereignty over the territory administered by Taiwan (Republic of China ), claiming most of it as its Taiwan Province.Možda sakrivaju podatke za ostale provincije? 🤨
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Nemoj im to zeljeti jer ce onda i vozarine u podrum.
Ovdje kaze da su im zalihe skroz fajn.
Coal inventory recovered to level close to previous years for China major power plants
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. Administrative Divisions
The People's Republic of China is divided into 33 administrative regions, there are 22 provinces, five autonomous regions, four municipalities, and two special administrative regions (SAR).
Additionally, China claims sovereignty over the territory administered by Taiwan (Republic of China ), claiming most of it as its Taiwan Province.Možda sakrivaju podatke za ostale provincije? 🤨
Kad smo vec kod sakrivanja igraju se sa AISom:
Analysis: China's disappearing ships: The latest headache for the global supply chainShips in Chinese waters are disappearing from industry tracking systems, creating yet another headache for the global supply chain. China's growing isolation…edition.cnn.comNe samo da neznamo di je ugljen nego i di su brodovi
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Meni je zanimljiviji ovaj pad na D70. Kako to objasniti?
Kineska nova godina uzrokuje rast zaliha koji se brzo potroši zbog još uvijek jake zime i zahuktavanja industrije?
Rekao bih da je tako. Natrpaju zalihe pred blagdane, uvoz je tada na pauzi, a potrosnja struje i potrebe za grijanjem su i dalje velike pa se zalihe tope. Tako onda poslije opet pred ljeto povecavaju zalihe jer je tada opet povecanja potrosnja struje.
Pozitivno danas je ovo kako si rekao - unatoc rastu zaliha su uvoz i vozarine i dalje visoke, to je dobar signal. Ugljen bi se trebao pojacano uvoziti cijelu zimu jer:
- zima ce vjerojatno biti ekstremna pa ce se ugljen trositi brze nego inace,
- zalihe su se povecale ali ne treba zaboraviti da je to, izmedju ostaloga, naustrb redukcija struje industriji, sto nece vjecno trajati, tako da ce vjerojatno gledati da zalihe ugljena i povecaju u odnosu na prosjek za ovo doba godine, sto ce naravno biti podrska uvozu.
Opet, sa druge strane, treba biti svjestan cinjenice i da se proizvodnja ugljena bez obzira na veliki demand ne moze samo tako preko noci povecati, pa onda uz gledanje demanda treba pratiti sta se dogadja i sa supplyem.
Display MoreNemoj im to zeljeti jer ce onda i vozarine u podrum.
Ovdje kaze da su im zalihe skroz fajn.
Coal inventory recovered to level close to previous years for China major power plants
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. Dobar graf. Gdje ste to nasli?
Zanimljivo kako nakon D320 krene pad zaliha. Logicno, kuri se vise po zimi pa onda restock na proljece.
90% vijesti pokupim sa twittera. Pratim valjda sve shipping analiticare, novinare i CEO-e u svijetu
Dodjes do najnovijih informacija cesto danima prije nego sto one izadju u mainstream medijima. To je jedina drustvena mreza na kojoj sam registriran i stvarno bih ju preporucio svakome. -
Takoder, sve korisno nađem na twiteru. Stavim hashtag#drybulk ili tako nesto sto te zanima i izbaci ti svasta korisno. I ono manje korisno. Pa filtriraj.
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Meni je isto Twitter apsolutno otkriće što se brzine informacija tiče.
A da budem ontopic, Joakim je jučer šortao GOGL, u danu kada je rastao 14%, pa je napisao da je bio intraday šort pa je nešto malo i zaradio. Joakime, Joakime, kao da si se u HDZ učlanio.
Više Joakim nije Bogisus. Pokvario se otkako je postao hedžer. -
U sijecnju ove godine je malo stisla zima i bila je totalna panika.
Ove godine ce biti jaca ili puno jaca zima, pocinje rano, biti ce duga.
Iste zalihe ugljena bi bile puno premale i da su iste ali nisu jer lazu.
Dokaz je uvodenje bonova za ugljen.
Potrosnja struje i energije za grijanje je >+5% u odnosu na proslu zimu i jos 15-20%radi jace zime.
🇨🇳drugovi su opet pali na osnovnoj marematici.
Zaledeni brodovi i luke(port congestion) ce utjecati pozitivno na vozarine a ne negativno.
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U sijecnju ove godine je malo stisla zima i bila je totalna panika.
Ove godine ce biti jaca ili puno jaca zima, pocinje rano, biti ce duga.
Iste zalihe ugljena bi bile puno premale i da su iste ali nisu jer lazu.
Dokaz je uvodenje bonova za ugljen.
Potrosnja struje i energije za grijanje je >+5% u odnosu na proslu zimu i jos 15-20%radi jace zime.
🇨🇳drugovi su opet pali na osnovnoj marematici.
Zaledeni brodovi i luke(port congestion) ce utjecati pozitivno na vozarine a ne negativno.
Nije potrosnja zbog grijanja jedina varijabla... gdje ti je u toj jednadzbi potrosnja industrije? Nisam siguran tko tu pada na osnovnoj matematici.
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Apsolutno twitter!
Malo off topic ali pogledajmo kako pravi asevi to rade. Dakle CEO FLNG-a Oystein Kalleklev cestita GOGL-u na rezultatu i baca izazov na iznos dividende:
Well done Golden Ocean Management AS! In FLEX LNG we raised our quarterly dividend per share from $0.4 in Q2 to $0.75 in Q3. Golden Ocean see our raise and call us by raising from $0.5 in Q2 to $0.85 in Q3. This is good poker play, race is on guys!
E sad ja zamisljam kako nas djedica iz stecajuse salje cestitke celavome u dubrovnik pa mu nabija na nos kako isplacuje male dividende, da ce on dat jace i tako
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Meni je isto Twitter apsolutno otkriće što se brzine informacija tiče.
A da budem ontopic, Joakim je jučer šortao GOGL, u danu kada je rastao 14%, pa je napisao da je bio intraday šort pa je nešto malo i zaradio. Joakime, Joakime, kao da si se u HDZ učlanio.
Više Joakim nije Bogisus. Pokvario se otkako je postao hedžer.Dakle, Joakim je postao trejder
I neka je, bravo za njega. Sada kada vodi fond primarni cilj je zaraditi novce. Pokazao je da dosta dobro zna predvidjeti trendove pa zasto onda ne profitirati i na rastu i na padu. To sto danas shorta ne znaci da nece sutra ici long, i obrnuto, A to naravno ne znaci da na vecem timeframe-u mozda nije i dalje bullish.Samo mi ovdje se zenimo za dionicu. Samo kod nas je grijeh prodati dionicu i opet ju kupiti nize, kada vec nemamo mogucnost shortanja. Odmah si heretik
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