Ekipa...ne treba gledati grafove, bitkojn, fjucrse ni barele... we are doomed
Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?
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čeka nas dugo, dugo propadanje
barem prema ovom članku
autor pretpostavlja prema Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) TWTR na $22, tamo negdje oko Travnja 2023. tako kaže slikica
Moje je mišljenje da tržište trenutno odrađuje dno i da je velika većina stvari već uračunata u cijenu, te se čak ne bih iznenadio nekom ljetnom rally-u prije duge hladne zime i znate već onih strašnih riječi rece...a, stagfl...a, infl...a bla bla bla. Znate ono, kada svi razmišljaju na jedan način, a ono se dogodi baš suprotno i neočekivano.
Nastavno na moj post od prošlog utorka kada je sve bilo crno od oblaka i nije se vidjelo sunce.
Koliko vidim danas Crypto i USA futuresi rastu, te je moguć mini rally pred ljetnu letargiju.
Trenutno DAX na +1,53%
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGDAXI?p=^GDAXI
USA futuresi svi preko 1% u plusu
VIX volatility index pao na 24,7
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https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/cont…l-be-new-normal
Kontejneri su još uvijek profitabilni
Ali nisu na ATH, i neka nisu
Ispravnije bi bilo reći ovako:
Kontejneri su 50% od vrha.Profitabilnost će im ovaj kvartal biti najveća do sad.
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Pišu ide reli
-------https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bearis…t-flood-markets
" And until that massive wall of inflows refuses to budge, there is little risk of a liquidation flush. On the contrary, with sentiment crashing through the floor, it is far more likely that stocks are due for another (bear market) rally and/or short squeeze. All they need is a catalyst, especially since markets digested the risk of a 100bps rate hike and actually rose on the news.
That catalyst may be the return of buybacks: according to Goldman, stocks will see a whopping $300B worth of US Corporate buyback execution in Q3 (Q2 data is still TBD but Q1 was $312BN for all US stocks)."
Sve to danas na kraju dana ide na početne postavke.
Hahahahah ovo je cirkus!
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Ajde prosli smo dobro danas
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Jim Cramer is ringing the bell at the New York Stock exchange.
The last time he did it, March 10th, 2015, became, up until that point, the worst day in the market of 2015.
The Dow plummeted 332.7 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropped about 1.7%.
"
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Malo po malo pucamo po šavu, pitam se da li ce ove sad zalihe koje si napunili ipak smanjivat jer kako izgleda javlja se opet problem s nabavkom i vremenom dobave tj opet se pogorsava, da bi kompanije tek tako smanjile razine zaliha na pred covid razine, puno rizika i neizvjesnosti smanjuje produktivnost
The containership port congestion index created by UK broker Clarksons hit a new record on July 14, whereby 37.8% of the boxship fleet capacity was at port. This exceeds the previous peak level recorded in late October 2021, and stands well above the pre-covid average of 31.5% recorded between 2016 and 2019.
“There is still no fix to non-ocean bottlenecks which are big drivers of supply and demand, and not in a good way for shippers,” the latest weekly report from Danish container advisory Sea-Intelligence warned, going on to list the 70,000 truckers who have just gone on strike in California and the tens of thousands of containers clogging the US west coast ports waiting for rail to destinations, because there are not enough engineers. There are nearly 30,000 rail containers delayed on the port of Los Angeles docks alone, with rail-bound cargo sitting for an average of 7.5 days. Over on the east coast, meanwhile, congestion levels, brewing for the last two months, are closing in on record levels.
Global boxport congestion sets fresh record highs - Splash247Boxport congestion is setting new record highs, quashing talk of any imminent return to supply chain normalisation. The containership port congestion index…splash247.com -
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Pišu ide reli
-------https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bearis…t-flood-markets
" And until that massive wall of inflows refuses to budge, there is little risk of a liquidation flush. On the contrary, with sentiment crashing through the floor, it is far more likely that stocks are due for another (bear market) rally and/or short squeeze. All they need is a catalyst, especially since markets digested the risk of a 100bps rate hike and actually rose on the news.
That catalyst may be the return of buybacks: according to Goldman, stocks will see a whopping $300B worth of US Corporate buyback execution in Q3 (Q2 data is still TBD but Q1 was $312BN for all US stocks)."
Sve to danas na kraju dana ide na početne postavke.
Hahahahah ovo je cirkus!
dobra procjena, hvataju zalet za novi krug sutra?.......
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Evo što kaže J. ususret Q2 reportu DAC-a:
Per the Q1 report, the company had $2.7B in contracted revenues with an average charter duration of 3.7 years, which should result in EBITDA generation of close to $2.1B. DAC’s total gross debt position amounted to nearly $1.3B as of Q1 end; however, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $198.7M, was expected to receive net proceeds from the ZIM dividend of $110M and sold 1.5M ZIM shares for $85.3M, for a pro forma cash position of closer to $394M (to which we need to add the $130M in proceeds from forward sales). Additionally, the company continued to hold 5.7M shares in ZIM, with a current market value of $258M. Therefore, DAC’s equity had a total (undiscounted) value of around $1,580M as of Q1 end assuming all the company’s vessels were to be scrapped at $400/ldt at the end of their current contracts (we have excluded the newbuilds from the equation).
Danaos has approximately 20.6M shares outstanding, for a market cap of around $1.25B.
Dakle, to je neko stanje za Q1, s tim da se brodove broje po scrap-tonama, an e po nadrealno visokim trenutnim cijenama. Da se NAV računa na taj način, vrijednost bi bila neusporedivo veća.
A da se ta računica sruši, vozarine bi trebale jako, jako pasti, u tolikoj mjeri da se trenutni ugovori raskinu. A da vozarine jako, jako padnu, trebali bi se riješiti congestioni i to. Sve je moguće, samo je pitanje vjerojatnosti. Po trenutnoj cijeni taj rizik je u velikoj mjeri već uračunat. -
djeco, danas uživajte u rastu indexa
uhvatite malo daha
vidim da se po kanalima spominje neki ljetni rally, to je dobro i nemam ništa protiv, kao dolar pada i nafta raste...
no, pozivam na oprez zbog dvije stvari:
1) katastrofalno loša izvješća banaka (pad dobiti zbog rezervacija ugl. >30%) i
2) danas pratiti nakon zatvaranja NFLX, kažu da će izgubiti od 2 mil (konzervativno) do 2,8 mil (nezavisne procjene) pretplatnika
a to se neće dobro odraziti na NQ
moje mišljenje je trenutno može long ono što je iznad linije 50sma i konsolidira se barem tjedan-dva; ostalo niti štapom odnosno već ako morate participirati u takvima, onda radije call opcije kupiti (recimo CCL)
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za razliku od banaka, pharma se drži odlično, prva tri sasvim solidna izvješća UNH, JNJ i NVS
a vidim da ih je većina 'zajašila' 50SMA
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Evo što kaže J. ususret Q2 reportu DAC-a:
Per the Q1 report, the company had $2.7B in contracted revenues with an average charter duration of 3.7 years, which should result in EBITDA generation of close to $2.1B. DAC’s total gross debt position amounted to nearly $1.3B as of Q1 end; however, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $198.7M, was expected to receive net proceeds from the ZIM dividend of $110M and sold 1.5M ZIM shares for $85.3M, for a pro forma cash position of closer to $394M (to which we need to add the $130M in proceeds from forward sales). Additionally, the company continued to hold 5.7M shares in ZIM, with a current market value of $258M. Therefore, DAC’s equity had a total (undiscounted) value of around $1,580M as of Q1 end assuming all the company’s vessels were to be scrapped at $400/ldt at the end of their current contracts (we have excluded the newbuilds from the equation).
Danaos has approximately 20.6M shares outstanding, for a market cap of around $1.25B.
Dakle, to je neko stanje za Q1, s tim da se brodove broje po scrap-tonama, an e po nadrealno visokim trenutnim cijenama. Da se NAV računa na taj način, vrijednost bi bila neusporedivo veća.
A da se ta računica sruši, vozarine bi trebale jako, jako pasti, u tolikoj mjeri da se trenutni ugovori raskinu. A da vozarine jako, jako padnu, trebali bi se riješiti congestioni i to. Sve je moguće, samo je pitanje vjerojatnosti. Po trenutnoj cijeni taj rizik je u velikoj mjeri već uračunat.Sve ovo što pišeš znamo, ali ipak je pao na ovu razinu. Možda zato što gotovo svi uračunavaju da ćemo imati recesiju od 22-23, a iza 2024. veliku vjerojatnost za novu veliku depresiju što će uz znatno veću količinu novih brodova stvoriti novo izgubljeno desetljeće za DAC kad im postojeći izvrsni ugovori isteknu tamo 24/25 a ZIM bi tada trebao bankrotirati tamo krajem dvadesetih.
Malo sam išao daleko u crnu budućnost ali
drugog objašnjenja za cijene oko ili ispod 60$ jednostavno nema.
A opet možda budućnost ne bude crna, nego samo siva?
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Evo što kaže J. ususret Q2 reportu DAC-a:
Per the Q1 report, the company had $2.7B in contracted revenues with an average charter duration of 3.7 years, which should result in EBITDA generation of close to $2.1B. DAC’s total gross debt position amounted to nearly $1.3B as of Q1 end; however, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $198.7M, was expected to receive net proceeds from the ZIM dividend of $110M and sold 1.5M ZIM shares for $85.3M, for a pro forma cash position of closer to $394M (to which we need to add the $130M in proceeds from forward sales). Additionally, the company continued to hold 5.7M shares in ZIM, with a current market value of $258M. Therefore, DAC’s equity had a total (undiscounted) value of around $1,580M as of Q1 end assuming all the company’s vessels were to be scrapped at $400/ldt at the end of their current contracts (we have excluded the newbuilds from the equation).
Danaos has approximately 20.6M shares outstanding, for a market cap of around $1.25B.
Dakle, to je neko stanje za Q1, s tim da se brodove broje po scrap-tonama, an e po nadrealno visokim trenutnim cijenama. Da se NAV računa na taj način, vrijednost bi bila neusporedivo veća.
A da se ta računica sruši, vozarine bi trebale jako, jako pasti, u tolikoj mjeri da se trenutni ugovori raskinu. A da vozarine jako, jako padnu, trebali bi se riješiti congestioni i to. Sve je moguće, samo je pitanje vjerojatnosti. Po trenutnoj cijeni taj rizik je u velikoj mjeri već uračunat.Sve ovo što pišeš znamo, ali ipak je pao na ovu razinu. Možda zato što gotovo svi uračunavaju da ćemo imati recesiju od 22-23, a iza 2024. veliku vjerojatnost za novu veliku depresiju što će uz znatno veću količinu novih brodova stvoriti novo izgubljeno desetljeće za DAC kad im postojeći izvrsni ugovori isteknu tamo 24/25 a ZIM bi tada trebao bankrotirati tamo krajem dvadesetih.
Malo sam išao daleko u crnu budućnost ali
drugog objašnjenja za cijene oko ili ispod 60$ jednostavno nema.
A opet možda budućnost ne bude crna, nego samo siva?
To znamo ti, ja i J. Ostali to ne znaju. Ostali su generalisti.
Ovdje je dobro objašnjenje za Target i inventories:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…31784741208064/
Prije mjesec-dva sve je krenulo nizbrdo s onim člankom da potražnja pada s litice, od tad su kontejneri pali brat-bratu 50%. To se nije dogodilo. Potražnja i dalje postoji, a congestion se tek sprema udariti.
Slažem se da nema objašnjenja za DAC na 60$. Samo još tržište to treba shvatiti. -
Ovo je isto skroz očekivano, ali i dalje impresivno:
COSCO doubles operating profits as high freight rates drive marketCOSCO has announced preliminary results for the first half of this year, posting impressive revenues driven by relatively high freight rates.www.porttechnology.org -
Ovak jos 10 dana i na 0 sam
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Ovak jos 10 dana i na 0 sam
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. sad im je več i dosta za danas, nek ohlade malo i ostave goriva za sutra....... neznam da li su ovim rastom izašli iz onog downtrend kanala od početka godine ili su još malo ispod?..... zlocesti?.....
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Lijepo je napokon vidjeti ovakav dan ljeta Gospodnjeg dvijetisućedvajestidruge
Možda nešto i zaradim(pokrijem gubitak) do kraja godine, ako se ovako dalje
nastavi
DAX +2,69%
S&P 500 +2,73%
DOW 30 +2,35%
NASDAQ +3,11%
VIX 24,57 -2,89%
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