LNG

    Jedna dodatna tema za raspravu, nemamo domacih brodara koji se bave s time osim kroz inu i janaf ali s obzirom na ovo dogadjanje oko plina s rusijom malo sam gledao ovih dana taj sektor tj vanjske brodare posebno LNG koji se bave s tim cini mi se da tu ima sad zanimljivih prilika


    Ovdje je jedna lista brodara LNG koji se nalaze u indexu za one koji zele istrazivat


    Weight of Constituents | UP Indices


    Trenutno me zaintrigrirao LNG brodar FLNG (Flex LNG), imaju 13 LNG brodova starih prosjecno samo dvije godine, cini mi se da bi bili dobri za jedno dugorocno ulaganje trenutno bacite oko


    Press releases – FLEX LNG



    Tu kod brodara isto imamo drugacije vrste brodova recimo LNG, FSRU, FLNG

    Na prvu me odbija već velik Mcap od 1.3B$ za firmu koja ima samo 13 brodova, a onda i dug je velik, od tih 13 brodova, 9 ih je ugovoreno na cca 2 godine, ako dođe do nekog spikea na vozarinama, ovi to ne bi iskoristili. TCE of 74500$ in 2021-vidio ovaj podatak, vjerojatno ovih 9 brodova će voziti po odprilike toliko do kraja 2024. Nisu to bulkeri, ali premala mi je flota da bi to toliko koštalo, a ne vidim da imaju neke 300k$ vozarine. Ima lijepu dividendu, to je plus.

    Nisam ništa detaljno proučavao, a nemam nekog znanja o tom sektoru. Ovo bi bilo super kad bi im vozarine tamo 2024 išle na neke jako visoke razine, ali moguće da se do tada ova situacija s plinom riješi.

    Quote from Hrx84

    Na prvu me odbija već velik Mcap od 1.3B$ za firmu koja ima samo 13 brodova, a onda i dug je velik, od tih 13 brodova, 9 ih je ugovoreno na cca 2 godine, ako dođe do nekog spikea na vozarinama, ovi to ne bi iskoristili. TCE of 74500$ in 2021-vidio ovaj podatak, vjerojatno ovih 9 brodova će voziti po odprilike toliko do kraja 2024. Nisu to bulkeri, ali premala mi je flota da bi to toliko koštalo, a ne vidim da imaju neke 300k$ vozarine. Ima lijepu dividendu, to je plus.

    Nisam ništa detaljno proučavao, a nemam nekog znanja o tom sektoru. Ovo bi bilo super kad bi im vozarine tamo 2024 išle na neke jako visoke razine, ali moguće da se do tada ova situacija s plinom riješi.

    Nemoj gledati samo velicinu duga, bitna je amortizacija duga, prosjecna starost brodova je 2 godine, nema dodatnih ulaganja sva dobit moze ici dionicarima, outlook je odlican, cijena jednog takvog novog broda je preko 220mil, vrijednost imovine brodova je bar 10-20% veca nisam jos detaljno proucio, a 20% razlike na njihovoj imovini brodova je 500mil, a to im je trecina duga, uvijek su bitni omjeri i vremenski period kad stavis u kontekst, meni se ovo cini jako dobro za dugorocno ulaganje i dobrim povratom na dividendu i ja sam tek u istrazivanju, meni se ovo cini dobro za sada.

    LNG & COAL up


    U.S. to Boost Gas Deliveries to Europe Amid Scramble for New Supplies
    The U.S. is ramping up shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe this year as the continent hunts for new supplies around the globe to phase out its…
    www.wsj.com


    The U.S. is ramping up shipments of liquefied natural gas to Europe this year as the continent mounts a worldwide hunt for new supplies to phase out its reliance on Russian energy after the invasion of Ukraine.

    The globe-spanning effort to wean Europe off Russian energy supplies was at the center of President Biden’s summit with European Union leaders this week in Brussels. The U.S. aims to ship 50 billion cubic meters of LNG to Europe annually through at least 2030, officials said Friday, making up for about a third of the gas the EU receives from Russia. The EU imported a record 22 billion cubic meters of LNG from the U.S. last year.

    The boost in U.S. gas deliveries goes only part of the way in covering the shortfall Europe faces in turning away from Russian gas. Officials across the continent are racing to sign new contracts with producers in the Middle East and Africa before next winter. France has ended subsidies for new gas heaters in homes and will instead subsidize electric heat pumps. Italy, the second-largest consumer of Russian gas after Germany, is considering burning coal at some power plants rather than natural gas.


    To help close the gap, Europe is stocking up on natural gas from other producers such as Algeria and Qatar. It is also moving to tamp down demand for the fuel, by cutting subsidies for gas heaters and possibly restarting coal-burning plants that had been closed to cut Europe’s greenhouse-gas emissions. The high price of natural gas has already pushed Germany and other countries to run their coal-burning plants harder since last year.

    Gledao sam GLOP, površno jer nemam ni vremena.

    Ali mi se čini da su vlasnici muljatori, a i to "partners" me podsjeća na NMM samo plinaški. Je li tko ovo proučavao

    European Union countries agree to jointly purchase gas.
    European leaders announced the agreement Friday, an effort to ease their reliance on Russia and contain energy costs.
    www.nytimes.com


    European Union countries have agreed to jointly buy and store gas, hydrogen and liquefied natural gas to address the challenge of reducing energy dependence on Russia while protecting Europeans from spiraling energy costs. They stopped short of imposing a ceiling on energy prices, however.


    Willing E.U. members can team up and jointly negotiate gas purchases, increasing their bargaining power with the hope of influencing energy prices. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, as well as countries of the western Balkans, can join the collective gas purchasing.

    Storage capacity can be shared so that all E.U. nations are prepared with sufficient supplies for next winter. Leaders also endorsed a proposal by the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, to fill up 80 percent of their underground storage facilities by November, and 90 percent by 2023, requiring mass purchases in the coming months. That would be a big jump from current storage levels, now about 25 percent, commission officials said.


    “We will now use our collective bargaining power,” Ms. von der Leyen told reporters on Friday evening. “Instead of outbidding each other and driving up prices, we will pool our demand.”

    “We are effectively in a war economy,” Mr. Tagliapietra said. “Politics is taking over many economic decisions. In extraordinary times, we need extraordinary measures.”

    LNG Market Update


    At start of the fourth quarter, the spread between the spot LNG price in Asian markets and European markets,West/East arbitrage (Dutch European Title Transfer Facility ("TTF") vs. Japan/Korea Marker (“JKM”)) widenedconsiderably. During the second and third quarters, this spread fluctuated between $1 to $3 per metric million Britishthermal units ("mmbtu"), which effectively put a cap on vessel spot earnings in this period, but during October andNovember, this spread increased to $5 to $7 per mmbtu. The increased West/East spread drove Atlantic cargoes to Asia, together with generally high cargo prices and strong demand growth. This reduced the number of shipsavailable in the market and spot freight rates therefore increased to all time high levels. The spot rate surpassed thelevels recorded at the beginning of the year, which had headline rates close to $300,000 but where round-tripeconomics were considerably above headline rate as quoted by Baltic LNG and Spark Commodities.In our third quarter earnings report, we pointed out that the JKM-TTF spread will be affected by Gazprom’s exportvolumes to Europe as well as potential shortage of gas in Europe as key factors for the length of the spot marketspike. By early December, the European gas security situation became critical, sparked by security concerns inUkraine with speculation that flows of Russian natural gas through pipelines could be curtailed in the event ofescalation of the conflict. As a consequence, the European natural gas price doubled during the first three weeks ofDecember, hitting an all-time high of approximately $60 per mmbtu on December 21, 2021 equivalent toapproximately $350 per barrel of oil equivalent. Although Asian LNG prices also increased as a consequence ofthis, the increase in price was less severe, with JKM prices increasing from only $37 per mmbtu at the end ofNovember to $45 per mmbtu on December 21, 2021. This resulted in the West/East arbitrage closing withcharterers and traders therefore electing to sell their flexible cargoes, predominately US cargoes, into Europeinstead the Asian markets. During the period July 2021 to January 2022, European LNG imports grew about 400%and in this time frame, Europe’s share of US cargoes grew from 15% in July 2021 to 75% in January 2022. With agreater share of cargoes going to Europe, this decreased sailing distances and freed up more shipping capacity inthe market resulting in lower freight rates during December and January. As charterers had less need to access thespot market for tonnage, this also dried up liquidity in spot and short-term fixtures.Export growth tapered off at the end of 2021, but growth for the year was healthy at approximately 5 per cent with19 million tonnes ("MT") volume growth compared to 2020, according to Kpler data. The US provided more than100 per cent of the volume growth, recording 23 million tonnes of export growth. There were two key contributors forthe rapid rise in US trade. Firstly, there has been no commercial cargo cancellations, in comparison to an estimated180 cargo cancellations during 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic which resulted in a short, but sharp demandslump in LNG during the second and third quarters of 2020. Secondly, the US has delivered significant organicgrowth of LNG exports due to an increase of capacity. US cargoes are beneficial for freight demand as thesecargoes typically travel longer distances to end consumers when compared to the average LNG cargo. Supplydisruptions in Nigeria, Trinidad & Tobago and Norway were the main reason for export growth being a bit lower thanwe expected.


    Demand growth during 2021 was primarily driven by China, South Korea and Brazil, which grew their imports byabout 21 MT. During 2021, Chinese imports grew by 10 MT and China, for the first-time, surpassed Japan as theworld’s largest LNG importer, according to Kpler data. LNG demand in South Korea was also strong in 2021 withimport growth of 6 MT. However, as European gas buyers started to price out Asian buyers at the end of 2021 into2022, Chinese and South Korean demand during the period November 2021 to January 2022 was down by about13 and 11 per cent respectively, as more cargoes were flowing to Europe, which had a detrimental effect on the spotfreight market, as explained above. The outlier in 2021 was Brazil, which grew its imports from 2.6 MT to 7.3 MTduring 2021 due to drought affecting hydro balances adversely due to La Niña conditions.The spot shipping markets are currently in the doldrums, however looking ahead, volume growth for 2022 isexpected to be stronger than 2021 according to industry sources with the US again being the main driver for exportgrowth with 17 per cent export growth assumed by Energy Information Agency. Additionally, LNGC newbuildingdeliveries will be significantly less in 2022 compared to 2021 with 27 LNGC newbuildings set for delivery in 2022,compared to 53 in 2021, according to Fearnleys. So, while the spot market rates have been tumbling since earlyDecember, term rates for one year time charter have been fairly stable. Fearnleys is currently quoting the one-yeartime charter rate at $100,000 per day which is only down from $125,000 in November when the spot market wasvery firm; illustrating that charterers are willing to pay considerable premium to the spot rates to secure tonnage for 2022

    The European Union demand response to high natural gas prices | Bruegel
    Even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high natural gas prices triggered an estimated European Union demand cut of about 7%.
    www.bruegel.org



    European gas markets are in turmoil. Supplies from Russia in the first quarter of 2022 (289 terawatt hours) were 30% lower than the same period of 2021 (408 TWh). Policymakers in both Russia and the European Union are discussing the possibility of a complete stop to Russian gas flows to the EU. Markets are extremely nervous, resulting in a six-fold gas price increase in the first quarter of 2022 compared to one year earlier.


    High EU gas prices (and benign global market conditions) saw the EU import 305 TWh of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 170 TWh a year previously (see tracker). But high prices have not only lured new gas supply into Europe. They have also encouraged consumers to reduce gas demand significantly. We estimate a 7% drop in Q1 2022 compared to Q1 2021 (1402 TWh versus 1507 TWh; see Annex 1). This can only partly be explained by milder weather.

    Russia's Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of 'extraordinary' circumstances, according to a letter seen by Reuters, upping the ante in an economic tit-for-tat with the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

    Dated July 14, the letter from the Russian state gas monopoly, said it was declaring force majeure on supplies, starting from June 14.

    Known as an 'act of God' clause, force majeure is standard in business contracts and spells out extreme circumstances that excuse a party from their legal obligations.


    Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells Europe gas halt beyond its control
    Russia's Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of 'extraordinary' circumstances, according to a letter seen by Reuters,…
    www.reuters.com

    Heavy Norwegian gas maintenance adds to energy price pressure


    OSLO, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Norway, which has overtaken Russia as the biggest gas supplier to Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine, will curtail its gas exports significantly next month due to heavy maintenance activity, with some work deferred from earlier this year.


    Reuters Graphics


    Heavy Norwegian gas maintenance adds to energy price pressure
    Norway, which has overtaken Russia as the biggest gas supplier to Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine, will curtail its gas exports significantly next…
    www.reuters.com