Quote from migra

Jan 28th 2021 #313

s obzirom na brojne dokaze na dokaze koji upućuju na novi commodities super cycle koji će ako već i ne svjedočimo dovesti do renesanse dry bulka. ako vozarine u siječnju neviđene 10 godina nisu dovoljan dokaz da ima temelja za takav scenarij neznam što bi još... kako to zna biti inzenzivno u kratkom vremenskom okviru pokazuju podaci od 2001 -2010. nikad nije ista situacija,uvijek je neki novi moment,tada je kina vukla jače ali tada je orderbook bio veći ili bitno veći od današnjeg imamo izrazito niski orderbook,povijesno niski od samo 6% flote koji neće biti u stanju min. sljedeće dvije godine isporučiti tonažu,radi neizvjesnosti oko budućih pogonski rješenja će se to i dodatno prolongirati. 2g. su najcrniji scenarij,srednji 2-4g,najbolji 4-6g. hmm....nebi bio u koži onih kojima ni 2g. nije dovoljno,rezime sljedi nekad kao i uvijek...

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1135760/Dry-…-next-two-years

The dry cargo orderbook is so low that it will take at least two years before additional capacity begins to make an impact on freight rates, speakers in a Mare Forum webinar said

osobno bi još samo dodao jednu sitnicu a to je min 2g izmjena dobrih i odličnih izvješća pa neće izostati dobri ili odlični prinosi.

razmažene ZSE investitore navikle na velike prinose to za sada ne impresionira ali pomalo poznati smo da kasno krećemo ali i kad krenemo ....

Quote from migra

pogled na futurese bolji od kamilice prije spavanja

Smax ožujak prijeti da će prestići Pmax

kamilica prije spavanja na kamilicu prije spavanja,može li to izazvati ovisnost?

https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2021/…chinese-markets

...Data from Refinitiv suggest that seaborne iron ore discharged at ports outside of China grew by some three percent in January, compared to a year ago. Considering that most part of the world were still unaffected by the pandemic in January 2020, it suggests that the demand for iron ore is starting to recover outside China as well. Imported volumes in Western Europe and Japan were slightly below the levels from a year ago, but up by around 50 percent compared to the lows in June. Given the harm the pandemic caused on many economies around the worlds, even a modest year-on-year growth in demand of iron ore must be considered a major step forward and promising for the months ahead.

London — ArcelorMittal expects global apparent steel consumption in 2021 to rise between 4.5% and 5.5%, compared with a decline of 1% in 2020, the largest global steelmaker said Feb. 11.

-1%

+5%

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/surging-shipme…orts-from-usda/

Corn exports are typically strongest from March through June, so the largest volumes are likely to be observed in this window.

najbolji dio tek pred nama a s kojim posljedicama pri vrlo visokoj odskočnoj dasci?

USDA reduced domestic corn exports by 100 million bushels in January to 2.55 billion bushels, which would still be a record. The reasoning was sharply lower supplies and higher prices. But that was before China bought an unprecedented 5.85 million tonnes (230 million bushels) of the U.S. grain late last month, despite elevated prices.

znači cijena nije bitna,samo daj dok ima zar ne?

p.s.

da podsjetimo kupuje se već berba koja još nije posijana.hmmm...

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-impor…ns-of-recovery/

That may not seem like a massive increase, but in terms of the damage done to the global economy during the lockdowns to combat the spread of the coronavirus during much of 2020, it’s actually a solid rebound.

p.s.

u prilogu malo kamilice za oči i lagan san

evo nas na Pmax >16k za ožujak

Quote from jasko

The amount of soyabean exports from the US carried on bulkers has increased since the start of the marketing season, given limited containerised capacity.                                                                         

Quote from migra

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/surging-shipme…orts-from-usda/

Corn exports are typically strongest from March through June, so the largest volumes are likely to be observed in this window.

najbolji dio tek pred nama a s kojim posljedicama pri vrlo visokoj odskočnoj dasci?

USDA reduced domestic corn exports by 100 million bushels in January to 2.55 billion bushels, which would still be a record. The reasoning was sharply lower supplies and higher prices. But that was before China bought an unprecedented 5.85 million tonnes (230 million bushels) of the U.S. grain late last month, despite elevated prices.

znači cijena nije bitna,samo daj dok ima zar ne?

p.s.

da podsjetimo kupuje se već berba koja još nije posijana.hmmm...

Display More

soya,corn,wheat...i di je tome kraj

tako to ide s murphys law.

25 godina? niiista poosebnooo?

a-ha,da.....

USDA sees China’s 2020-21 wheat imports reach 10 mil mt, a 25-year high

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/usda-sees-chin…reach-10-mil-mt

Quote from jasko

Uskoro probijamo 10-godišnji vrh.....

neizbježno.

možemo čekati da dočekamo neizbježno ili iskoristiti priliku dok drugi čekaju neizbježno

nemudra dilema ali neka tika taka presudi.

to nije daleko od dileme nedavno apostrofirane ovdje,biti među onima koji predvode ili biti među onima koji sljede

sloboda izbora je zakon

a kad misliš da si vidio sve marfije tada:

Forecasts for low supplies have spurred importers and domestic processors to buy up crops ahead of potential shortfalls

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/category/shipp…ry-bulk-market/

Quote from jasko

The permutations for shipping of a muted Chinese New Year https://splash247.com/the-permutatio…inese-new-year/

znači od CNY babaroge "ništa posebno"?

tako to ide sa marfijem ništa posebno gdje netreba ali ne i gdje treba

odskočna daska se i dalje diže za izlazak iz CNY?

ako se nastavi ovako trebat će "muški" zaškrgutat sa zubima nekad po investitorski

sloboda izbora je zakon

p.s.

cijene wheat,corn soy u prilogu

https://splash247.com/castor-maritim…le-aframax-buy/

dry bulk kompanija,ok sada su tu 2 manja tankera ali do jučer čisti dry bulker,slične tonaže,sličnog sastava flote.

puno toga sličnog ALI brutalno različito vrednovano?

TK vrlo približno:

ATPL180 kn=40 Musd

CTRM 1,7usd =800 Musd

nešto je ovdje 20x precijenjeno ili podcijenjeno?

vjerujem da ćemo se složiti da je neodrživa ovakva razlika u vrednovanju?

neka napiše ako ima netko da misli da je to ok i održivo.

netko tu mora značajno dole a netko značajno gore jer sve se prije ili kasnije uravnoteži zar ne?

iz ovog se da izvući potencijalno vrlo blagonaklone posljedice za vl nočanik.

živi bili....

p.s.

izvući ćemo nekad ovo iz arhive za rezime