Malo brodarske matematike na strani ponude, ukratko procjene su da će do 2030 otprilike 30% svjetske flote biti starije od 21 godinu, tj. nedovoljno efikasni za zelene standarde, skupi za održavanje i zreli za rezališta. S druge strane, otvaraju se nova brodogradilišta, reaktiviranju stara (sa 206 na skoro 300 u zadnjih godinu dana) koja će izgraditi nove flote sljedeće generacije brodova. Plima koja dolazi…
Vise u članku ispod
Samo što gradnja novih nekako uvijek brže ide nego recikliranje starih. Poštenog scrapa nije bilo već 7-8 godina a u ovoj godini je npr. naručeno samo supramaxa dvostruko više nego je cjelokupan scrap za dry. A potražnja odnosno rast potražnje u bulku je puno neizvjesniji nego primjerice nafte ili naftnih prerađevina. Na rekordne količine ugljena koje je ove godine uvezla Kina sasvim sigurno dugoročno se ne može računati. A opet nismo imali ludilo od vozarina. Stoga rast flote od recimo 2.5% i ne mora biti tako nizak kao što se na prvi pogled čini gledajući povijesne prosjeke.
Cape Index +2,000 to 30,348
Indikativno i naravno interesantno je koliko god futuresi rastu, realna potražnja raste brže i jače...
Zašto je to tako treba "okriviti" naravno Kinu sa povjesno vrlo niskim zalihama iron orea i gotovih čeličnih proizvoda u korelaciji sa ATL orderbook/fleet capeova ispod 5% . Ajmo promatrat
Cape +5,32% mrvicu do 29 k.
E sad, budi Ti pametan pa znaj kuda će to 30k, 35k....??????
E da i gdje smo danas pa solidno preko 30 k..
Blago onom.....
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 30348 2000
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14087 112
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 14047 87
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12424 4
BDI INDEX 2058 +86
Freight Futures
Dry Bulk
Capesize: up ~4%
Panamax: up ~3%
Dobri pokazatelji iz Kine. Čak toliko da bi neki mogli posumnjati u njihovu točnost. Ali bulk vozarine ih potvrđuju. Tankerska je opet imala savršen tajming ili možda samo veliku sreću.
Cape +5,32% mrvicu do 29 k.
E sad, budi Ti pametan pa znaj kuda će to 30k, 35k....??????
E da i gdje smo danas pa solidno preko 30 k..
Cape preko 31k
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 31089 741
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14568 481
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 14139 92
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12436 12
BDI INDEX 2105 +47
Novi brodovi friško naručeni imaju rok dostave tek u 2026. godini 🫡
https://splash247.com/star-bulk-join…msarmax-orders/
No price has been disclosed, although brokers are quoting between $33m and $35m for similar tonnage in China.
BC 5 T/C routes 180000 30130 -959
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14719 151
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 14152 13
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12393 -43
BDI INDEX 2071 -34
Novi brodovi friško naručeni imaju rok dostave tek u 2026. godini 🫡
https://splash247.com/star-bulk-join…msarmax-orders/No price has been disclosed, although brokers are quoting between $33m and $35m for similar tonnage in China.
Srecom mudri ljudi su ih narucili prije, posebno panamakse i supre
2023 15th Annual New York Maritime Forum- SHIPPING MARKETS PRESENTATION
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 29493 -637
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14738 19
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 14153 1
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12352 -41
BDI INDEX 2046 -25
BC 5 T/C routes 180000 28805 -688
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 14746 8
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 14074 -79
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 12311 -41
BDI INDEX 2017 -29
According to the IFF report, the Chinese economy is projected to grow by 5.2% and 5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The global economic growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2024, with advanced economies growing by 1.3% and developing economies growing by 4.3%.
The report emphasizes that the monetary tightening cycle in most countries is likely to end in 2024. However, the tightening monetary and financial conditions will still persist, continuing to dampen demand growth and limiting the pace of global recovery.
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 15613 -138
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 13146 -252
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 12192 -119
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 11615 -117
BDI INDEX 1385 -16
Freight Futures AM Update
Dry Bulk
Capesize: up ~4%
Panamax: up ~3%
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc (EGLE) Reports Q3 2023 Earnings: Net Loss of $5. .
CEO's Commentary
Although our financial results for the third quarter are reflective of the headwinds faced by the broader industry, we were able to once again outperform the BSI (Baltic Supramax Index) by 14%, achieving a net TCE of $11,482. We remain positive about the medium-term prospects for the drybulk industry, particularly given strong supply side fundamentals, macroeconomic risks notwithstanding. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eagle-bul…-224046963.html
Cape Index up 2,077 17,690$/day.
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 17690 2077
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 13034 -112
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 12111 -81
BHS 7 T/C routes 38200 11409 -206
BDI INDEX 1462 +77
