DRY BULK

    Quote from looserst

    Da vidimo prati li neko novu kinesku real estate sagu:

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/c…ted-2023-08-14/

    Volio bi cuti misljenja ovih koji racionalno razmisljaju (dakle onih koji NEznaju da se bulk vozarine oporavljaju u 2024) :S

    prema informacijama koje iz prve ruke imam sa ovog foruma i teme, vozarine su krenule na mjesec još početkom ove godine i otvaranjem Kine.......međutim raketa se raspala pri poletanju ali zbog spama i ovogodišnjeg hakiranja Haka nismo dobili info zašto i gdje se srušila jel u svijetu iluzija ona još uvijek leti......bez bitnijih promjena koje se sad več mjere u 100% up vozarina u 2024 ide skupljanje krhotina rakete i problemi sa "komunalijama" jel do Božića će Djed Mraz popapati keš za poklone, reparaciju sanjki i kupovinu novih a sobove i snobove neće imati čime hranit......dok u svijetu iluzija dolazi princ na bijelom konju i pita snobove, pardon sobove koliko novaca žele za let, ovi kažu "100", princ plati i žive zajedno do kraja života pa ni ne umru nego opet prožive još 100 života u neprekidnom letu na mjesec tamo negdje do 5023 godine......

    Nisam u ATPL i drybulku, ali najbolji hedge je prazna knjiga narudžbi brodovlja u dry bulku, a i trenutne cijene dionica, barem kad je u itanju GOGL na 7,x $.

    Quote from lebowski
    Quote from looserst

    Drzava tj partija svako malo intervenira ali "dzaba krece". Niko ni stapom da takne povoljne kredite za stanove. Mene zanima kako bi se neko hedgao od ovih problema. Jasno je da to nisu commodities ni drybulk. Tu smo prvi naj....li

    Nisam u ATPL i drybulku, ali najbolji hedge je prazna knjiga narudžbi brodovlja u dry bulku, a i trenutne cijene dionica, barem kad je u itanju GOGL na 7,x $.

    Prazna knjiga narudzbi je mantra i veca je nego projicirani rast tonmilja. Uostalom orderbook se nije promjenio u odnosu na lani pa vidimo kakve su vozarine. Brodova ima i bit ce ih dovoljno da ronimo oko breakevena ako se ne dogode congestioni (npr ovaj nedavni skok na panamaxima uzrokovan...bas panama kanal zagusenjem kojeg su neki protumacili kao oporavak pmx vozarina na duge staze) ili naravno ako neko dobro povuce sa importom.

    Gogl na 7.x moze biti "skuplji" nego na 10, stvar je perspektive, kuda ce vozarine...to smo na ZIM-u apsolvirali, zar ne? ;)

    Pitao sam za hedge jer su neke procjene da je dobar hedge ako kihne ova firma i bude contagiona nekakvog... energija sta mi je malo cudno. Los su naravno financije, real estate, metali, prolaz dinama itd...

    • 116.5 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports. This is 4 million tons (-3%) less than was stockpiled a week ago and is down year-on-year by 22.1 million tons (-16%). Stockpiles have fallen during twenty-three of the last twenty-four weeks and are at the lowest level since August 2020. Significant, too, is that last week's decline has marked the largest drop in iron ore stockpiles since the Week Ending April 19, 2019. This is particularly noteworthy considering that stockpiles are already relatively low. We continue to expect that China's iron ore imports will climb further through the end of this year.
    • China's electricity production totaled a record 846.2 billion kilowatt hours last month. This marks an increase of 106.3 billion kilowatt hours (14%) from June and is up year-on-year by 40.3 billion kilowatt hours (5%). The previous record was 824.8 billion kilowatt hours produced in August 2022.  
    • While China's economy remains rife with significant issues, we continue to stress that things that matter for the dry bulk spot market remain very positive. A huge amount of thermal coal continues to be consumed in China, and a healthy amount of steel continues to be produced. China's coal and iron ore imports remain strong, and we continue to stress that there are still no signs that China's robust appetite for commodity imports is set to suddenly reverse.

    China's Coal-Derived Electricity Generation Remains Much Stronger Than Coal Output; Hydropower Output Remains Weak

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    • China's coal production totaled 377.5 million tons last month. This marks a decrease of 12.6 million tons (-3%) from June and is up year-on-year by only 4.8 million tons (1%). A large amount of coal is continuing to be produced in China, but significant is that coal-derived electricity generation again grew year-on-year last month by much more than coal production.
    • Coal-derived electricity generation, which makes up the bulk of China's electricity output, totaled a record 599.7 billion kilowatt hours. This is up from June by 76.9 billion kilowatt hours (15%) and is up year-on-year by 43.7 billion kilowatt hours (8%). The previous record was 598.9 billion kilowatt hours produced in August 2022. China's coal-derived electricity generation growth has now exceeded coal production growth for five straight months. Previously, coal production growth had exceeded coal-derived electricity generation growth during fourteen of the prior sixteen months. It remains supportive for Chinese coal imports prospects that coal-derived electricity generation growth has continued to far exceed coal production growth.
    Quote

    China's steel output has most recently come in at a level that is up year-on-year by 11%.

    Coal-derived electricity generation most recently came in at a level that is up year-on-year by 8%.

    Demand is strong.

    Za naše je dosta bitna kineska proizvodnja struje iz ugljena, jer će morati obnavljati zalihe koje uvoze brodovima. A ukupne vozarine prate još razinu čelika i željezne rudače što je vezano za građevinu, tu su globalne najave povećanje proizvodnje. Netko će sve to trebati prevesti do nekih kupaca…

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    2+2=4

    Onaj bolji ugljen koji se uvozi ce se uvoziti neovisno o kineskoj domacoj proizvodnji ugljena jer je njihov uglavno los. To je da ne podave clanove Partije u velikim gradovima. Za ove na selu ih nije briga, njima loze njihov cumur.

    Bolje je jeftino kupovati nego jeftino prodavati.

    Evo nešto pomalo indikativno

    ‘Big Short’ investor going long again on shipping stocks
    Michael Burry’s Scion Capital has returned to bets on public shipowners after taking a pause
    www.tradewindsnews.com

    One of the key components of Michael Burry’s portfolio is his investment in bulk shippers, companies engaged in transporting raw materials and commodities across oceans. This move underscores his confidence in the global trade and shipping sector.

    As economies rebound from the challenges posed by the pandemic, the demand for raw materials is soaring, potentially driving growth in the bulk shipping industry.

    Burry’s portfolio also includes investments in oil and gas companies. While the industry has faced volatility due to factors such as fluctuating oil prices and the transition toward renewable energy sources, Burry’s investment indicates his belief that established oil and gas companies have the potential to weather these challenges and recover in the mid to long term.

    Big Short Michael Burry's Portfolio Unveiled, Here are His Current Bets
    The portfolio of popular Big Shorts Michael Burry has been revealed, showcasing the Wall Street star investor's stock bets
    coingape.com

    Panamax spot rates shine as grain and mineral demand increases – The past few weeks have been quite positive for the smaller size dry bulk vessels, with Panamax spot rates up more than 60% from recent lows while Supramax spot rates also have followed the move higher, though to a lesser extent. Strong demand for grains but also for coal are the main reasons for the recovery, which should remain in place for the foreseeable future as the North Atlantic market appears tight in tonnage.

    koliko vidim iz liste, jedan čarteraš, dva bulkera i jedan tankeraš

    izostavio je kontejneraše? osim posredno kroz CMRE

    zanimljivo...

    btw na CMRE se vijori neki bulflagić koji upravo sjedi na 21(day)MA