DRY BULK

    Baltic Dry Index up 3.2% to 2,805 points

    Capesize +8.78% to $30,475

    Panamax +0.74% to $26,423

    Supramax 58k tons -2.14% to $25,120

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    Znaci imamo:🧐🤔

    150mkn dobit iz poslovanja 2021✔️

    150mkn ((min procjena) iz poslovanja 2022✔️

    150 mkn na revalorizaciji za 2021✔️

    150mkn na ugovorenim novogradnjama✔️

    =600mlk na 1.4 ml dionica =430

    Danas cijena halo bing kako brat?ujutro 415, nekidan 360-370.

    Ide jaka zima vuglena samo u 🇨🇳CCP slikovnicama i bajkama.

    Za godinu dana smo blizu mojeg targeta i cekamo da EEXI i carbon tax zaliju benzinom pozar na dry bulku. 💣💥🎉

    🤪Brrr.... ne zvuci lose? 😅

    Da vidimo sto je bolje:

    Trejd,netrejd ili nijedno od toga.

    kolega maratonac kaze da se na kraju mrtvi broje. 👍

    Uskakaci🚂 i iskakaci 🚄u vlakove polomili ruke i noge 🚑ali ne odustaju. 🤭

    Milina za pratiti pa promatrajmo i uzivajmo uz kokice🍿🍺

    😇

    Prvo na bojanje a onda na spot. Neznam pratite li ali njihovi brodovi ovako izgledaju

    Bolesnici :S

    Dry bulk rates drop back down to earth. Is the worst over? – As volatility in the dry bulk space returned with a vengeance, so did potential trading opportunities, and the last leg of this year’s spectacular journey might prove a great one. However, the direction of the next move is, as always, a big unknown. On one hand, the reasons that recently pushed rates to decade-highs remain in place: Congestion is still elevated, fluctuating at levels that correspond to a much higher utilization for the overall trading fleet; coal demand remains robust, reflecting supply shortages in the energy markets; while at the same time winter weather is ahead of us which can cause further delays but also push coal demand even higher. On the other hand, the significant curbs in Chinese steel production combined with highly volatile commodity prices remain an obstacle to increased trading activity. The balance of the above factors will determine the short-term direction of rates as a spectacular year comes to an end. We remain on the camp of a stabilization in spot rates around current levels before another potential tradable rally towards the end of the month emerges. The highs of the year have clearly been set for dry bulk, but current rates are very profitable, and owners’ sentiment remains upbeat, after having seen rates that were unimaginable just a few months ago. Futures continue to be skeptical of such a scenario, and obviously that’s where the opportunity lies. As always, one must keep in mind the high risk involved in dry bulk trading given the vast range of outcomes and the

    sensitivity of dry bulk shipping to China’s policy towards commodities. Thus, one must remain quite focused on the continuous news flow out of the country and the potential implications for end user commodity demand.

    • Coal prices stabilize, winter demand will determine the commodity flow balance – Following a rapid drop of some 50%, coal prices seem to have found a temporary bottom at levels that are still relatively elevated versus recent history. China’s dramatic intervention in the coal markets was the main reason for the drop, given the country’s dominant position in global coal consumption. Yet, the peak demand season for electricity is ahead of us, and it seems early to call an end to what conceivably might end up being power shortages in both Europe and China alike. Interestingly, commodities that require a lot of energy to process, such as iron ore and copper, have recently seen weak flows into China, while commodities that are part of the power generation chain, such as coal and LNG have witnessed strong flows. The above import mix tells a lot about the current industrial situation on the ground, and until a balance is restored, flows into China will remain tilted towards the later type of bulk commodities.

    • Dry bulk upcycle to continue in 2022 – Although the high level of volatility in 2021 might be slowing down, the dry bulk sector remains in an upcycle driven by relatively low growth in supply, strong demand for bulk commodities, and continuing infrastructure bottlenecks and supply chain constraints that affect the whole shipping universe. We anticipate government actions as it relates to energy security combined with ongoing decarbonization efforts to drive the flows of commodities transported by dry bulk, and thus, indirectly determine the path of freight rates.

    Kocka je bačena, alea iacta est :!:

    Kolo srece se okrece🙃😇

    Cargill tbn fixed 170/10, Sevis/Oita, 26 Nov/2 Dec, 60c/55c, 12/12, 5%ttl - 30.50 via suez / $31.50 via cape (RTSA) which to be tc eqv to 42k via COGH / $47k via Suez

    Rmr Vale paid low 26 last night for 20/30 Nov laycan. When was the last time we saw Vale pay above index?

    Strong China Coastal Bulk Coal Freight Index abt 1550 rmb/pmt

    Sta nisu ovdje neki proglasili da je zima vec zavrsila?🙃🤭🤣

    Gledam danas objavljeni kineski PPI y/y koji ima najveci rast od 2005 koliko ovi graf pokazuje, ovakav rast se jos ni blizu ne preljeva na CPI, pitanje je koliko dugo se to moze odgadjat, ali bar kod kineza ne vidim da bi taj cpi trebao tako brzo past s obzirom da je u zaostatku za PPI, pitanje kako ce partija to sve iskontrolirat i na ciji trosak na kraju ili ce uspit iskontrolirat da PPI i padne ako iskontroliraju cijenu inputa, ali opcenito jednom dignute cijene je jako tesko posli spustit.


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    Cpi u totalnom nestrazmjeru ili je pitanje samo lag efekta gotovo vrlo vjerovatno

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    Tu svakako treba dodati EBITDA..koja će ove godine iznositi cca 240 mil.kn...ako i 2022.g bude na istom nivou...to je gotovo 500 mil.kn.

    Quote from accountant

    da, u teoriji bi se rast proizvođačkih cijena, obično zbog rasta inputa, trebao preliti na rast potrošačkih cijena

    jel tako?

    no to je Kina

    oni imaju svoju crvenu verziju kapitalizma

    Da, po slici do 2012 su se savrseno pratili, kasniji ppi 2018, onda je cpi sa lagom pocea rast, sada je mozda razlika sta je PPI drasticno narastao sumnjam da u tolikoj mjeri mogu na sebe preuzet taj trosak bez da ga prebace na cpi

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