”The Chinese coal market is in a deficit, and imports are trying to help plug the gap between supply and demand. Stocks are low, and will need a large restocking over the coming months in order to avoid another series of power cuts during the winter”
DRY BULK
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Jedino nas ujko Albert Trotter moze zaj…. Ako je za timunom.
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Šangaj opet solidno up danas. Znaci BDI napada 3100.
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https://www.braemarscreen.com/
Futuresi i danas svi u zelenom.....
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Mislim da je A. Trotter pok., RIP, tako da nije za kormilom.
Tako da je posloženo sve za...one day milionaires!
Živjeli!
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This time next year….
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Baltic Capesize index +8.5% to $33258 + 2618
Brazil/China +9% to $33k/dJul FFA +5% to $43k/d
Aug FFA +3% to $43k/d -
Freight futures am update
Capesize up ~3%
Panamax up ~4% -
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 33258 2618
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 31671 1007
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 29838 506
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 24790 128
BDI Index 3176 +151
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majko mila kako volim te brojeve preko 30k .... lakše računati
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BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 33258 2618
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 31671 1007
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 29838 506
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 24790 128
BDI Index 3176 +151
Panamax 4T/C + 3,4% 30335
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Oce to tako..
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majko mila kako volim te brojeve preko 30k .... lakše računati
Jednu trećinu u troškove, ostalo za napunit račune
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China's Industrial Production Growth Remains Strong; Steel Production Has Set an All-Time High
- Data released today shows China's industrial production in May rose year-on-year by 8.8%. We have seen reports stating this is disappointing (growth in April came in at 9.8%), but overall we do not find it disappointing. Crude steel production totaled a record 99.5 million tons and is up year-on-year by 8%. Overall, China's industrial sector continues to fare quite well.
On China, Bloomberg, and Bullish/Bearish Signal
- Brief note on Bloomberg reporting today that China has "ordered state firms to curb overseas commodities exposure". This refers to financial positions in overseas commodity derivative markets (and does not at all refer to imports and hard assets). Overall, the Chinese government is continuing to work to rein in commodity prices, but that nation's actual demand for commodities remains strong and in our view will stay strong.
- Also of note is it has been widely reported that the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will soon release some state stockpiles of metals including copper, aluminum and zinc into the domestic market. This is a development not seen in two years. We have seen some pundits claim that this is a bearish signal, but instead we view it as a bullish signal. By all accounts, China's demand for commodities this year has been robust (and various segments of industrial production have continued to set new records). Demand has been so strong that some reserves will now be sold into the domestic market. The strategic reserves will not come close to being fully unwound, though, and China's actual demand for imports is likely to remain very strong.
- As we have continued to examine in our Weekly China Reports and Weekly Dry Bulk Reports in recent weeks, the most significant actual change that we expect for the near term is that China's coal imports will turn soon and experience significant strength. As we also discussed most recently in the client update we published earlier today, the last three months have seen China's coal-derived electricity generation grow year-on-year by 15% while coal production has grown year-on-year by only 1%. China's coal production growth remains poised to stay under government-mandated pressure due to regional and national coal mine inspections and safety restrictions following several coal mine accidents and deaths. New today is that yet another coal mine accident has occurred -- and the nation's coal production growth is all but guaranteed to stay weak. At the same time, electricity production and consumption have already been setting records across various parts of China, and summer has not yet even begun. More records will continue to be set.
China's Coal-Derived Electricity Generation Continues to Exceed Coal Production; Yet Another Coal Mine Accident
- Data released today shows China's coal production totaled 326.3 million tons in May. This is up by 2% from a year ago. Overall, it is extremely bullish for the seaborne coal and dry bulk shipping markets that China's coal-derived electricity generation growth has continued to fare much better than coal production growth. Coal-derived electricity generation in May totaled 450.7 billion kilowatt hours. This is up year-on-year by 6%. Coal-derived electricity generation during the last three months has increased year-on-year by 15%. In comparison, coal production during the last three months has increased year-on-year by only 1%. Also of note is that overall electricity production rose year-on-year by 9% and hydropower production rose year-on-year by 11%. A full breakdown of electricity production by source will be discussed in our upcoming Weekly Dry Bulk Report.
- As we have been continuing to stress in our work, China's coal production growth has been poised to remain under government-mandated pressure due to regional and national coal mine inspections and safety restrictions following a series of tragic coal mine accidents and deaths. New today, though, is that yet another coal mine accident occurred, this time in Shanxi province. At present, 7 coal miners are trapped after a roof collapsed at the Taiye Coal Mine. Accidents like these are becoming even more of an embarrassment to the Chinese government and strict inspections and safety restrictions will continue during the upcoming months. While very tragic, the coal mine accidents and deaths are occurring at the best time for the dry bulk market as peak summer electricity demand season is about to begin. Electricity production and consumption has already been setting records across various parts of China in recent days, and more records will continue to be set. At the same time, domestic coal production growth will remain limited and we are confident Chinese coal imports will experience a large increase in upcoming weeks.
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COAL MARKET: Asian benchmark thermal coal (Newcastle, Australia) extends rally, surging to nearly $130 per metric tonne, the highest since March 2011
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India's Coal-Derived Electricity Production Remains Strong https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2021/…-remains-strong
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Can Beijing tame the iron ore trade?
The frosty relationship between China and Australia, which has affected bilateral trade for commodities such as coal, barley and cotton, now threatens to disrupt the iron ore trade https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1137175/Can-…-iron-ore-trade
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Sta god napravili tona milje idu up.
Sjajno, sjajno, sjajno.
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Another week of gains for the kamsarmax/panamax markets, spurred by a strong market in the Atlantic and a stable Pacific basin.
The smaller sizes also continued to show strength due to a strong market in Asia, after a quiet start to the week with plenty of interest in short term period fixtures reported.
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Trebali bi uskoro stići kontejneraše po vozarinama i po vrijednosti broda. Živi bili, pa vidjeli....... https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containerships…-day/2-1-981796
Kako sad stvari stoje kasnimo 3 mjeseca za kontejnerašima. To znači da bi u 9. mjesecu trebali vidjeti $100.000 per day za Panamax dry bulk .......... Živi bili, pa vidjeli... https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containerships…hip/2-1-1025708
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