Tankerasi strani i domaci

Ecuador hopes to hit oil production of above 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the year, following a massive drilling campaign by multiple energy companies, Energy Minister Juan Carlos Bermeo said on Thursday.

The country’s President Guillermo Lasso, who took office in May, wants to raise average daily production to 1 million bpd

Ecuador targeting oil output above 500,000 bpd by end of 2021

Ecuador hopes to hit oil production of above 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of the year, following a massive drilling campaign by multiple energy…

www.reuters.com

Petrobras to raise capex to $60-$70 bln in 2022-2026 plan -sources

Petroleo Brasileiro SA is expected to commit between $60 billion and $70 billion in capital expenditure (capex)in its next multi-year business plan as Brazil's…

www.reuters.com

Passenger numbers are expected to rise further in November as international borders were open to fully Covid-19 vaccinated Australian citizens and permanent residents from 1 November.

Sydney airport passenger traffic bounces off low | Argus Media

Passenger traffic in October at Australia's busiest airport Sydney rebounded from a low the previous month, with increased flows on domestic routes despite…

www.argusmedia.com

Pregovori sa iranom i sa venecuelom

Da samo jedno uspije vozarine bi dobro poskocile.

Amerima bi dobro doslo povecanje proizvodnje za njihov cilj spustanja cijene nafte.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe…rbs-2021-11-18/

Ide duga hladna i mracna zima.

Panika na djelu,osjetit ce i tankerasi dio te panike.

LNG tanker rates in Asia surged to a record high as a steady flow of US cargoes to the region boosts demand for ships

LNG shipments from Australia to Japan have surged by more than 400% in the last two months to $316,750/day

Demand raste da su svi u cudu, jednom ce nestati raspolozivih tankera za prijevoz.

Tik-tak

💣

Petrobras says won't meet all fuel distributor orders in Dec. due to high demand

Brazilian state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro said in a statement on Friday that it will not be able to supply all the orders from fuel distributors in…

www.reuters.com

Demanad tako raste da su svi u strahu i prijete otpustanjem SPR-a.

Hoce li se usuditi do kraja otvoriti pandorinu kutiju?

Ako puste duha iz boce aladin(arapin) ce se zadnji smijati.

Sve sto se otpusti mora se vratiti nazad.

Po kojoj cijeni?

I za tankerase se pracka vec spana jer kinezi vec od 5 mjeseca otpustaju, vec su dosta milijardi$ sprzili.

Idemo dalje....

OIL MARKET: Currently, the world’s 1st, 2nd and 4th largest oil consumers are on-the-record saying they are **considering** tapping their strategic petroleum reserves (that’s US, China and Japan). India, the 3rd largest, is somewhat more nuanced on its position.

TC za sada sporo ali smjer je UP.

Za sada i dionice tankerasa ne prate novo normalno-pojacani interes.

Pomalo, tik-tak⏳

Jednog dana ce jako skociti i svi ce pitati"ZASTO"?

In the crude market a rebound is slowly emerging and we are seeing more and more interest in long term deals of around three years. The average rate for three years is up $1000 to an average of $36,000/pdpr.

On the clean side, there has been interest in all sectors although the short-term rates have strengthened, for most periods rate-levels have remained flat.

Although oil prices have fallen from the highs of last week, prices remain above $80/barrel as demand for oil strengthens as international travel increases with more countries now re-opening their borders.

Najveci rast demanda u tjedan dana u zadnjih 80 dana

According to gasbuddy data, Friday US gasoline demand rose 2.9% from the prior Friday and was 2.7% higher than the average of the last four Fridays. It was the highest single day for gasoline demand since the Friday before Labor Day.

Usprkos jakom rastu demamda cijena pada radi straha od koordiniranog otpustanja SPRa vise zemalja i dijelom radi rasta covid slucajeva.

WTI price fell -$4.69 (-6%) from $80.79 to $76.10 week ending November 19.
Price has fallen -$8.05 (-10%) since November 9.

Ova tablica dobro pokazuje koliki je rast demanda kada se skladista i ovako prazne a rast cijena tjera na otpustanje SPRa

Najveci rast demanda u tjedan dana u zadnjih 80 dana

According to gasbuddy data, Friday US gasoline demand rose 2.9% from the prior Friday and was 2.7% higher than the average of the last four Fridays. It was the highest single day for gasoline demand since the Friday before Labor Day.

Usprkos jakom rastu demamda cijena pada radi straha od koordiniranog otpustanja SPRa vise zemalja i dijelom radi rasta covid slucajeva.

WTI price fell -$4.69 (-6%) from $80.79 to $76.10 week ending November 19.
Price has fallen -$8.05 (-10%) since November 9.

Ova tablica dobro pokazuje koliki je rast demanda kada se skladista i ovako prazne a rast cijena tjera na otpustanje SPRa

Postcovid rast demanda svih roba,sirovina je nadmasio ocekivanja svih analiticara.

Nakon robe siroke potrosnje koja je preko kontejnera zagusila najvece luke svijeta nespremne za takav skok potraznje za prijevozom i nakon sirovina iron ore, boxit,ugljen, zitarica, soje i ostalih dosla je na red i nafta.

Iako medu zadnjima koja jos nije odradila rast i na njoj ce biti puno iznenadenih.

Napisala sam nedavno da ce nafta i tankerasi biti najbolja oklada za 2022. Da je krcanje prije bolje nego kasnije.

Jednostavno krecu sa dna demanda i zato imaju veliki potencijal rasta.

Tankerasi jos i vise od nafte iako sada kada je odluka pala da se otpustanjem SPRa pusti duh iz boce nafta >200 je moguci scenarij.

Bez otpustanja SPRa nebi mogla preko 150.

Sve robe su znacajno premasile predcovid, zasto se to nebi dogodilo i sa naftom?

Neka mi netko da razuman odgovor ako takav postoji.

U protivnom se mi ovdje kladimo na okladu koju nemozemo izgubiti.

Prije nego se netko upusti u pokusaj obrazlozenja zasto na nafti i tenkerasima ne sljedi bull cycle nebi bilo lose procitati ovo stivo.

Ovo je vrlo korisno stivo i za ulagace u dry bulk i kontejnerase jer pojasnjava sto mozemo ocekivati srednjerocno i duze od toga.

It’s Mostly a Demand Shock, Not a Supply Shock, and It’s Everywhere

Monetary Policy 3 created a self-reinforcing demand explosion that is getting harder, not easier, for supply to keep up with.

www.bridgewater.com

U cemu sve postoji veliki potencijal rasta demanda.

Avio prijevoz, procjena je na 3-4milb, to je po starom a po novom normalnom sve nadmasuje znacajno predcovid pa ce i avio prijevoz.sa ovakvim cijenama kontejnera mogao bi se dio pogodnih roba prevoziti avio transportom.

Cestovni prijevoz tereta ce se povecavati sa neizbjeznim povecanjem demanda za robu siroke potrosnje.

Cestovni prijevoz ljudi, svaki dan deseci tisuca novih vozaca koji mogu kupiti automobil,da nema zastoja sa chipovima na trziste bi bili vec izbaceni deseci miliona novih vozila, grade se tvornice za chipove, uskoro rjesenje tog problema.

S nastavkom ovakvog rasta svjetske ekonomije i brodski prijevoz ce participirati i vecoj potrosnji derivata.

Sa ovakvim omjerom izmedu fosilnih goriva gdje je nafta uvjerljivo cjenovno nakonkurentnija neizbjezan je switching za grijanje i proizvodnju el. energije.

Stanje sa plinom i ugljenom je takvo da cijene nece tako brzo dole.

Covid radi puno manje stete svj ekonomiji od prosle godine

uz cjepiva dolaze i tablete koje ce ljeciti oboljele sto znaci da ce druge godine stete od covida biti jos manje, rjesit ce se nestasica chipova,normalizirati avio promet.

2022 ce biti godina velikog rasta demanda,dostupan dohodak po glavi raste, dodatno sa stimuliranjima centralnih banaka.

Zagusenja po lukama ce rastom prijevoza jos pojacati jer za gradnju prosirenje novih luka ce proci godine.

Za godinu dana na snagu stupa EEXI i carbon tax koji ce usporiti brodove, poslati najstarije u rezalista.

Tankerasi su u najboljoj poziciji po pitanju % tonaze koja se demolira u 2021.

Orderbook je najnizi u 20g

Moguci su i dogovori USA sa venezuelom i iranom sto bi jako podrzalo tankerase.

Zima je moguci veliki kratkorocni okidac za veliki rast potraznje za fosilnim izvorima energije.

Iznad arktika se akumulira ogromna kolicina hladnog zraka i uskoro ce se spustiti na kontinente donoseci polarnu zimu.biti ce i zaledenih luka i brodova sto ce pozitivno utjecati na vozarine.

Japan ce otpustiti SPR a vec su im zalihe ne visegodisnjem dnu.

Skupo ce ih kostati ta glupost kao i druge u istoj situaciji.

a za tankerase dodatno spananje pracke.

Japan's wholesale spot power price surged to the highest level ever for this time of year

That's primarily due to:

> Several utilities curbing output from power plants to save LNG supply for winter
> Rainy weather reducing output from solar plants
> Sky-high fuel costs

Global gasoil and diesel markets are tightening at an “alarming” pace with supply shortfalls now hitting key consuming markets worldwide.

Seaborne diesel trades poised for pickup - Splash247

Global gasoil and diesel markets are tightening at an “alarming” pace with supply shortfalls now hitting key consuming markets worldwide, a new report from…

splash247.com

Ocekivano povecanje +30%

Why? 🤭

Shipments of refined products to Europe from the Middle East -- mostly diesel and jetful -- are set to surge this month to 2.26 M Tons from 1.8 M Tons last month, according to Bloomberg Tanker tracking.

Tik-tak, svaki dan smo blize jednoj posebnoj zimi.

U kojoj ce biti jedna od vecih nestasica energije kakvu je vidjela ova civilizacija,koja je pod utjecajem aktivista odbacila fosilne izvore prije nego je nasla zamjenu za iste.

Biti ce bolno i puno suza, velikih racuna za grijanje i struju.

Biti ce i visokih vozarina i zarada plinasa, bulkera i tankerasa.

⌛🛫🍿🍺

Extremely cold in Alaska right now. The first -40°C of the winter has been recorded.
This is about 2 weeks earlier than average.

EUROPEAN ENERGY CRUNCH: The electricity crisis in Europe is coming back as cold weather settles over the continent. Spain will pay the **2nd highest ever** day-ahead electricity on Monday (>€236 per MWh). France, Italy and Germany also paying high prices |

Sve se doci na svoje, samo strpljivo.

Kaze WB nestrpljivi su tu da se na njima zaradi.

Ako netko zna, on zna

Uskoro ce EEXI carbon tax srezati.

A kad bi jos iran ili venezuela bili rjeseni

Year to date, we've seen the demolition of 25 MRs, the highest number in >10 years. This compares to 12 in 2020; 17 in 2019. If the trend continues, it will help rebalance the market; the MR orderbook is 4.7% of the fleet, well below historical averages.

I ovdje tik-tak, zaostatak se smanjuje, svaki dan smo blize 2019.

Koliko ce biti prebacaj u 2022 u odnosu na 2019?

Ostatak svijeta jos ne prati USA ali nije upitno.

US air travel (TSA total traveler throughput in million passengers a day)

7-day average 12.2% below 2019 levels

Quote from brajakica

Tik-tak, svaki dan smo blize jednoj posebnoj zimi.

U kojoj ce biti jedna od vecih nestasica energije kakvu je vidjela ova civilizacija,koja je pod utjecajem aktivista odbacila fosilne izvore prije nego je nasla zamjenu za iste.

Biti ce bolno i puno suza, velikih racuna za grijanje i struju.

Biti ce i visokih vozarina i zarada plinasa, bulkera i tankerasa.

⌛🛫🍿🍺

Extremely cold in Alaska right now. The first -40°C of the winter has been recorded.
This is about 2 weeks earlier than average.

EUROPEAN ENERGY CRUNCH: The electricity crisis in Europe is coming back as cold weather settles over the continent. Spain will pay the **2nd highest ever** day-ahead electricity on Monday (>€236 per MWh). France, Italy and Germany also paying high prices |

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Skupljate drva za zimu?

Not a joke

Average Antarctica temperature from April to September hit the LOWEST on record. As these temperatures correlate well with Arctica temperatures, a record cold winter can be expected for the Northern Hemisphere as well.

"Over the past years, ice conditions in late October and early November have allowed extensive shipping along the vast Russian Arctic coast. This year, however, large parts of the remote Arctic waters were already in late October covered by sea-ice."

Ovo je jednako interesantno i za bulkerase jer utjece na potrosnju ugljena.

EUROPEAN ENERGY CRUNCH:the electricity crisis in Europe is coming back. Day ahead power prices in multiple countries are jumping to one of the top-5 ever levels. Germany, for example, will pay tomorrow €241 per MWh, the 3rd highest ever price

Besides Germany, other countries will see sky high electricity prices tomorrow, including France, Switzerland, and Belgium. And prices in Eastern Europe and the Balkans are back to painful levels, putting govs in the region in a difficult position.

Zamimljiv prilog za V. Britaniju gdje se vidi trenutan omjer izvora energije.