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DRY BULK
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Baltic Capesize-indeks + 3,0 prosent til 19.437 dollar pr dag
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Baltic Dry Index Rises 2.98% to 2,281 in London
Capesize +2.99% to $19,437
Panamax +5.71% to $25,437
Supramax 58k tons +0.38% to $23,347
Handysize +0.26% to $22,518 -
Super. Možda ove godine i bude rasta na ATPL. 😘
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...... U 3 dana vozarina za pnmx narasla 25%, a ova dionica sa tendencijom pada.
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Fourth Consecutive Day of Large Chinese Purchase of US Corn
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) today reported sales of 800,000 tons of corn to China (exporters are required to report to the USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 tons or more of any commodity). All of the corn will be shipped during the current grain season which ends on August 31st. Today marks the fourth consecutive day of 100,000 tons + sales to China. Prior to Tuesday's initial sale, no 100,000 ton+ US corn sales to China were reported since January 29th. As we have continued to stress in our work, US corn exports remain poised to surge during the next several months. This remains extremely encouraging for the dry bulk market
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Fourth Consecutive Day of Large Chinese Purchase of US Corn
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) today reported sales of 800,000 tons of corn to China (exporters are required to report to the USDA any export sales activity of 100,000 tons or more of any commodity). All of the corn will be shipped during the current grain season which ends on August 31st. Today marks the fourth consecutive day of 100,000 tons + sales to China. Prior to Tuesday's initial sale, no 100,000 ton+ US corn sales to China were reported since January 29th. As we have continued to stress in our work, US corn exports remain poised to surge during the next several months. This remains extremely encouraging for the dry bulk market
That brings the 4-day total sales to 3.9 million tonnes (153 mln bu) and total 2020/21 U.S. corn sales to China to at least 23.2 mmt (915 mbu).
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Trebali bi uskoro stići kontejneraše po vozarinama i po vrijednosti broda. Živi bili, pa vidjeli....... https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containerships…-day/2-1-981796
Kako stvari stoje ne bih se čudio da ih stignemo.
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Trebali bi uskoro stići kontejneraše po vozarinama i po vrijednosti broda. Živi bili, pa vidjeli....... https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containerships…-day/2-1-981796
Kako stvari stoje ne bih se čudio da ih stignemo.
The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content. na dobrom smo putu osim ako se nebi htjeli siliti preko svake mjere a to prije ili kasnije nosi svoje posljedice
dali je moguće da neće biti posljedica pri profit iz tekućeg poslovanja nekih100milja + rast asseta od realno očekivanih 100 baksa po dionici
mislim uvijek vrijedi ništa nije nemoguće,može erupcija supervulkana,može asteroid,može se sunce ugasiti,mogu vanzemaljci ALI
koliko je to realno kolike su šanse da neće biti velikih ili još većih posljedica?
rezime sljedi nekad ....
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The Chinese trade restrictions on Australian grains have created a situation that is perhaps not great for trade efficiency or indeed for some consumer prices. However, it is good news for shipowners in the dry bulk sector as cargoes have to travel further afield to find their buyers, with Australian farmers seeking new export markets and Chinese buyers forced to find substitutes for the next-door producer. In light of Australia’s move to request WTO to formally engage in the dispute, it would appear that Canberra sees the trade dispute dragging on and, hence, continuing to add to the global tonne-mile demand. The already strong mid-sized segments in the dry bulk market could therefore see continued support for healthy freight rates. https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2021/…pute-with-china
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Samo neka se Australci kace s Kinezima i dalje.
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Strong sales of U.S. grains to Asian customers this marketing year has resulted in outstanding sales to Asia being around 3 times the historic average. This backlog of orders will boost tonne-mile demand, particularly for the Panamax segment, over the coming months.
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Sjajno.
Dobar support dok ne krene svjetska infrastrukturna manija. A mora.
Onda idemo na 100% utilizacije.
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Western Bulk sees firm market through 2021
Handysize and supramax operator expects a firm dry bulk market this year based on strong demand indicators as the global economic rebound continues. That, coupled with low fleet growth makes for a promising mix
Oslo-based operator expects demand from China and other Asian countries to support the Pacific market, while recovering demand from the rest of the world should help the Atlantic basin in the second half of the year......... https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1136195/West…et-through-2021
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Panamax 4 Time Charter Average
Spot 25437
MTD 19662
YTD. 16137
Supramax 10 Time Charter Average
Spot 23347
MTD 22000
YTD. 15836
Handysize 7 Time Charter Average
Spot 24484
MTD 21883
YTD. 15690
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S tim da pravi commodity supercycle na bazi infrastrukture jos nije ni krenuo.
Do 2008 je sama Kina potegnula BDi do 11.000. Zamislite kad potegne nekoliko centara odjednom.
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Prikaz konjuktura i depresija na pomorskom tržištu od 2 svj. rata:
- Prva konjuktura - od 1945. do 1948. g.
- Prva depresija - od 1948. do 1950.g.
- Druga konjuktura - od 1950. do 1952.g.
- Druga depresija - od 1952. do 1954.g.
- Treća konjuktura - od 1954. do 1957.g.
- Treća depresija - od 1957. do 1964.g.
- Četvrta konjuktura - od 1964. do 1966. g.
- Četvrta depresija - od 1966. do 1967. g.
- Peta konjuktura - od 1967. do 1970. g.
- Peta depresija - od 1971. do 1972. g.
- Šesta konjuktura - od 1972. do 1973. g.
- Šesta depresija - od 1974. do 1978. g.
- Sedma konjuktura - od 1979. do 1981. g.
- Sedma depresija - od 1982. do 1986. g.
- Osma konjuktura - od 1987. do 1989. g.
- Osma depresija - od 1990. do 1991. g.
- Deveta konjuktura - od 1991. do 1995. g.
- Deveta depresija - od 1996. do 2002. g.
- Deseta konjuktura - od 2003. do 2008. g
- Deseta depresija - od 2008. do 2020. g
- Jedanesta konjuktura -od 2020 do
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Prikaz konjuktura i depresija na pomorskom tržištu od 2 svj. rata:
- Prva konjuktura - od 1945. do 1948. g.
- Prva depresija - od 1948. do 1950.g.
- Druga konjuktura - od 1950. do 1952.g.
- Druga depresija - od 1952. do 1954.g.
- Treća konjuktura - od 1954. do 1957.g.
- Treća depresija - od 1957. do 1964.g.
- Četvrta konjuktura - od 1964. do 1966. g.
- Četvrta depresija - od 1966. do 1967. g.
- Peta konjuktura - od 1967. do 1970. g.
- Peta depresija - od 1971. do 1972. g.
- Šesta konjuktura - od 1972. do 1973. g.
- Šesta depresija - od 1974. do 1978. g.
- Sedma konjuktura - od 1979. do 1981. g.
- Sedma depresija - od 1982. do 1986. g.
- Osma konjuktura - od 1987. do 1989. g.
- Osma depresija - od 1990. do 1991. g.
- Deveta konjuktura - od 1991. do 1995. g.
- Deveta depresija - od 1996. do 2002. g.
- Deseta konjuktura - od 2003. do 2008. g
- Deseta depresija - od 2008. do 2020. g
- Jedanesta konjuktura -od 2020 do
crni scenarij 2023
srednji scenarij 2025
najbolji scenarij 2030 (još sam dužan zašto,nisam zaboravio ali nije još vrijeme,držim da će mi biti tolerirano jer je razlog opravdan)
možda i griješim,nebi bilo...
p.s.
i u crnom scenariju ima dovoljno vremena i za vatromet iz kategorije once in a....
u ostalima scenarijima još izglednije + još izgledniji jači intenzitet
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Braemar ACM The Big Picture: Chinese Economic Policy
Last week, China’s National People’s Congress approved the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan, setting out the long-term direction of the economy. We summarize the key points that will affect the dry bulk market.
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ASEAN countries all set to ramp up steel capacities in the coming years
ASEAN is one of the fastest-growing emerging markets in the world, especially for the iron and steel industry.
i "hoće li svijet stati?" aaaako bi kina....
#1135
evo malo o stahovima,kvazistrahovima,pretjeranim strahovima....
China plans to reduce output of steel, aluminum to achieve carbon neutrality.
to želi cijeli svijet pa i kina ali još 1o godina ići će se u smjeru:
China's goal to reach a carbon dioxide emissions peak by 2030.
China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has cited the plan to cut steel output no less than three times already in 2021
But this could hurt the profitability of steel end-users, or even drive up inflation.
Take China's plans for iron ore cuts....
'What the Chinese government says and what the Chinese government does are two different things
i za kraj najgori scenarij da kina i ostvari što nikad nije i ako bi ikad htjela osim na riječima,da smanji proizvodnju steela čime bi se izgubio profit,poluga moći u svjetskim ekonomskim odnosima,da u krajnjoj liniji uspori svoj ekonomski rast....
hoće li svijet stati?ako kina kaže dovoljno smo bogati da ne želimo više zarađivati na nečistoj industriji koja svakim danom postaje čišća,to je jedna posebna tema koja zahtjeva.....
uvjeren sam da svijet neće stati ako bi kojim slučajem kina...
nameće se više nego logičan odgovor,dogodit će se ono što se je dogodilo kada je i kina preuzela svjetsku proizvodnju čelika,netko drugi će reći "ne možemo si priuštiti da radi "nečiste" industrije propuštamo veliku zaradu"
zar već danas ne svjedočimo procesu tranzicije?
pri:
China steel imports surge 150% in 2020,Vietnam's steelmakers long suffered from an influx of cheap alternatives from China. But the trend reversed last year, when steel exports to China increased more than ninefold.....
Indian steel exports to China increased by a factor of 15 last year....
Japanese steelmakers also were quick to tap Chinese demand. Mini-mill producer Tokyo Steel Manufacturing resumed exports to China for the first time in a decade in July.
ukupe količine su male ali je trend više nego naglašen.
Strong MENA demand diverts high grade iron ore supply from China
znači ima onih koji bolje plačaju od kineza,koji čekaju u redu da kinezi odustanu od proizvodnje steela ali ne vjerujem da su oni baš tako....
bitno izglednije da su to iskusni glumci ,performeri....
koji nebi bili na putu da postanu gospodari svijeta da su baš tako....
vidim dva njihova primarna motiva za "svakodnevno" ponavljanje mantre smanjit ćemo proizvodnju steela...
1. da se dodvore svjetskoj zajednici kao najveći zagađivaći planete da bi oni ali....
2. direktno na trenutnoj bazi tim izjavama dižu cijene steela na svjetskom tržištu i time podižu zaradu svojih čeličana.
moj rezime:svijet ne može bez steela,treba ga više nego ikad,cijena neće biti prepreka jer alternativa je okretanje kotača u suprotnom smjeru.
ima li tko pri zdravoj pameti da to želi,da bi to dozvolio ako se može spriječiti?
neće kina odrediti koliko će se steela proizvoditi,to će odrediti DEMAND a sve upučuje da će biti jak kao nikad pa...
dry bulk će na jedinom prihvatljivom izboru profitirati u rasponu jako dobro do profitirati kao nikad u povijesti.
time will tell
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