DRY BULK

Asset values still very low relative to earnings.                                                                                                            

Vrijednost brodova nastavlja rast.........

Supramax 56k dwt 10 year old 17.00 + 13,3%

BCI 5TC 19845 -613

Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping Report https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a4d1d2…2021+Report.pdf

Route Description Size Value ($) Change

BCI t 5 T/C routes 180000 19845 -613

BP 5 T/C routes 82500 26940 352

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 27264 188

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 24056 7

BDI Index 2420 -8

Coal Import Restrictions Reportedly Being Lifted at Various Chinese Provinces; New Urgent Notice on Preventing Coal Mine Accidents; Increase in Unannounced Checks on Coal Mines

• As we discussed in our client note yesterday, two new coal mine accidents and deaths occurred in China over the weekend. While extremely tragic, accidents and deaths are continuing to ensure the prioritization of safety, inspections, and restrictions over coal production growth. This remains helpful for the dry bulk market and coal import market as China's coal-derived electricity generation remains very likely to continue to far outpace domestic coal production.
• New today, and not surprising, is that the National Mine Safety Supervision Bureau issued an urgent notice on further strengthening the prevention of accidents. While the notice included typical warnings and urged companies to learn from accidents and practice better safety controls, also noteworthy to us is that the notice reportedly requires a designation at all companies naming the first person responsible for the company's anti-accident work. Ideally, mining companies (and key executives in charge and designated responsible) will become better at ensuring that accidents do not occur.
• Also of note is more unannounced checks on coal mining companies are already reportedly being carried out. In addition, some import restrictions are reportedly being temporarily lifted at various provinces to help ensure coal demand can be met this summer. As we discussed again in our most recent Weekly Dry Bulk Report, electricity consumption records have continued to be set in various provinces and summer has not yet even begun. Guangdong province remains only the latest province to have reported an all-time high in its daily electricity consumption, and the demand outlook for all of China remains very encouraging to us. Overall, we remain of our view that China's coal imports will find strength this summer.

5 reasons global shipping costs will continue to rise https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/5-reasons-glob…ntinue-to-rise/

Except from Capesize, there is absolute no more latent capacity hidden in slow-steaming, according to our theoretical optimal speed indicator" In this kind of market environment the likelihood of further rate spikes is significantly increased.

Supramax 10TC Average      

Znači znatno se povečava mogućnost dalnjih naglih skokova cijena za SUPRE , PANAMAXE i HANDYE......

Panamax 5TC je probio 30000, a ovo je Panamax 4TC Average.......                                                                         

BCI 5TC 20632 +787

Quote from jasko

BCI 5TC 20632 +787

Znači napokon smo dočekali preokret....danas bi BDI mogao potegnuti između 3 i 5 %.

Supramax Jul 21 29000                                                                                                                                              

Evo ga i Panamax 4TC Jul 21 29000

Evo malo računanja;

ako uzmemo u obzir da atpl ima 6 brodova na dugoročnom ugovoru a spominjalo se nekih 12 000 usd dnevno po brodu računica je sljedeća:

6 x 12 000 = 72 000 usd

4 supre x 27 600 = 110 400 usd

2 handy x 24 000 = 48 000 usd

dobijemo 230 400 usd / 12 brodova = 19 200 usd po brodu dnevno

za supre i handy uze sam jučerašnji prosjek po BDI...

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 27264 188

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 24056 7

....e sad ako su za ovih 6 brodova na dugoročnim ugovorima imali mogućnost korekcije onda je prosjek iznad 20 000 usd po brodu po danu....inače ATPL je do sada ugovarala brodove na spotu nešto iznad prosjeka BDI indexa....a zarada po brodu s prosječnom cijenom od 12 800 usd im je bila oko 1780 usd....pa sad nek svako dalje računa za sebe kavu dobit možemo očekivati u Q2 i Q3....

Vanka ce danas rasturiti, a vec su od pocetka tjedna odradili rast 5-10 posto.

Danasnji update..vjerojatno bdi rast danas.

Freight futures am update

Capesize up ~6%

Panamax up ~5%

https://www.braemarscreen.com/

Danas futuresi divljaju i panamaxi i supre su već za 7 mjesec prebacili 29 000 usd a i capovi su danas dosta jako krenuli up.