The ratio between Capesize and Panamax spot rates has averaged about 1.45 over the years. Currently it stands at 0.79. Historically the ratio tends to revert back to the mean. Question is in which manner the reversion will happen this time around...
Freight futures am update
Capesize up ~8%
Panamax up ~4%
Baltic Dry Index Falls 0.23% to 1,303 in London
Capesize -5.37% to $10,749 Mar FFA +13% to $9,350 Feb FFA +11% to $11,650
Panamax +3.55% to $14,836
Supramax 58k tons +1.65% to $12,930
Handysize +1.22% to $11,371
The ratio between Capesize and Panamax spot rates has averaged about 1.45 over the years. Currently it stands at 0.79. Historically the ratio tends to revert back to the mean. Question is in which manner the reversion will happen this time around...
s obzirom da su capeovi bili u siječnju 25k bitno izglednije da će opet up gdje su i bili za početak.
a što se tiće ovog omjera ako pmax i smax nastave ovako kako su krenuli zanjih dana neće capeovima biti lagan posao dostići taj AVG.
da vidimo do kada će kinezi sanjati spuštanje cijene za iron ore,što duže će otezati dalje će katapult dobaciti.
zadnjih godinu dana to je dokazano promašena strategija ali neka opet pokušaju ako moraju ako je to jače od njih.
nekad kasnije u godini dry bulk će na krilima tog pokušaja dodatno profitirati baš kao i u 2020.
Ironore futures advanced today as global economic recovery hopes spurred risk appetite, with prices over $161 in London morning. Mar was seen trading up from $159.25 to $161
Ironore futures advanced today as global economic recovery hopes spurred risk appetite, with prices over $161 in London morning. Mar was seen trading up from $159.25 to $161
iron ore ide >200 to neće nikakve igrice spriječiti,dapače još će si kinezi pogoršaršati posljedice ako neće uzimati max kolko je na raspolaganju.
sada će bolje planirati u budućnosti,ima već dokaza da to rade,samo godine su potrebne da bi se i sprovelo.
svijet će trebati steel i svaka cijena će biti prihvatljiva jer nema druge prihvatljive alternative.
svijet ima izbor da i si sam bolje planira,otvara rudinike i čeličane,
evo prilike da se obogate oni koji imaju resurse samo nije to baš samo tako.....
to je igra samo za velike.....
kinezi samo nekih 13 % iron ore vade iz rudnika koje imaju pod koncesijom,hmmm....
slabo je to bilo planiranje do sada...
ovako je bolje za dry bulk,više volatilnosti ali idu u paketu veći vrhunci a i avg.
kad smo kod volatilnosti zanimljiv prilog koji potkrijepljuje izrečeno.
za sada je sve u granicama dugogodišnjeg avg.
Diana Shipping Inc.'s (NYSE:DSX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 68% Above Its Share Price https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diana-shi…-062809419.html
Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BDRY/
Diana Shipping Inc.'s (NYSE:DSX) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 68% Above Its Share Price https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diana-shi…-062809419.html
pričekajmo koji kvartal za isporuku pa će ta očekivanja biti bitno optimističnija.
već nakon Q1 očekujem značajne promjene po pitanju očekivanja šire investitorske zajednice.
What do you make of a year that has started with a new US administration, continuing geopolitical tensions, an ongoing health crisis and dry bulk shipping rates at historical highs? https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2021/…ook-like-a-bull
Ovdje je the name of the game Biden.
Ceka se da odrapi stimulus za infrastrukturu, sveobuhvatno. A to onda ide u nebesa. Vozarine ravno duplo, u prosjeku, a mozda i vise. Tika, taka...
U medjuvremenu ova kineska glad za zitaricama podrzavat ce manje brodove, sto je takodjer sjajno.
Weekly Dry Time Charter Estimates, February 10 2021
Weekly Dry Time Charter Estimates, February 10 2021
zanimljivo koliko je 2Y pmax jači od 1Y?
nema ovdje lošeg scenarija samo dobar-jako dobar.
2022 će biti još bolje od dugo godina neviđenog u 2021.
to nisu želje brodara već strahovi onih koji unajmljuju brodove.
hmmm....nebi bio u koži onih koji ignoriraju te strahove kada dođe dan za rezime. 
p.s.
pogled na futurese bolji od kamilice prije spavanja
Smax ožujak prijeti da će prestići Pmax
JP Morgan on commodities: " We believe that the last supercycle peaked in 2008 (after 12 years of expansion), bottomed in 2020 (after a 12-year contraction) and that we likely entered an upswing phase of a new commodity supercycle". The BDI all-time high was in '08.
With agricultural prices soaring, metal prices hitting the highest in years and oil well above $50 a barrel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is calling it: Commodities appear to have begun a new supercycle of years-long gains. Everyone from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Bank of America Corp. to Ospraie Management LLC are calling for a commodities bull market as government stimulus kicks in and vaccines are deployed around the world to fight the coronavirus. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…ady-kicking-off
With agricultural prices soaring, metal prices hitting the highest in years and oil well above $50 a barrel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is calling it: Commodities appear to have begun a new supercycle of years-long gains. Everyone from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Bank of America Corp. to Ospraie Management LLC are calling for a commodities bull market as government stimulus kicks in and vaccines are deployed around the world to fight the coronavirus. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…ady-kicking-off
Commodities supercycle ispada iz paštete na dnevnoj bazi već neko vrijeme i tako će se nastaviti mjesecima,godinama ali
i za par godina će jednom broju ZSE investitora biti iznenađenje
a i posljedce će biti ono što nebi smjelo
hmm...samo ako će biti više od "ništa posebno"..
a evo kako radi ničeg posebnog "paničare" kinezi
a tek kada se vrate na posao,zima ide prema kraju kreće građevina punom parom u kini a i svijet ima puno toga za odraditi.hmmm....
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dalian-iron-or…ee-week-high-on
Dalian iron ore jumped to its highest in three weeks on Wednesday and was set for a weekly gain of more than 5%, buoyed by hopes of improved demand for the steelmaking ingredient after the Lunar New Year holiday in China....
Evo malo CnB potvrde kroz brojeve gornjih najava i usporedbe sa 2021 sa 10 god AVG na isti dan
Opet se pokazuje da je dry bulk ogledalo svjetske ekonomije.
ovdje je usporedba poslovično najlošijeg kvartala u godini sa cijelogodišnim prosjecima
što daje ovim brojevima nemalu dodatnu težinu
p.s.
na dry bulku sada već puno toga nije uračunato u cijene dionica a morat će se,tika taka je neumoljiva...
a sloboda izbora zakon.
ovo je početak a tik tka će učiniti svoje,troškovi goriva će rasti a to će smanjiti brzinu.
posljedice ništa posebno ali u sinergiji sa već puno puta ništa posebno = ? 
