DRY BULK

Weekly Vessel Valuations Report

Cekaju nas slatke muke....

Capesize lipnja FFA -8% na $ 36k / d

Panamax lipnja FFA -4% na $ 26k / d

Supramax lipnja FFA -3% do $ 25k / d

BCI 5TC 39055 -2976 ( - 7,1% )

MV ULTRA DWARKA 61,395DWT/2012 OPEN : BATAAN, PHIL 11TH–15TH MAY fixed indon/wci coal at 31,500 dop - cnr

Transtime (56,726 2012) delivery Singapore was placed on subjects for a trip via Indonesia to Thailand at $32,000.

Bao Qin (56,877 2010) open Singapore 13 May failed trip via Indonesia to Vietnam $33,500 - cnr

Xing Xi Hai (60,498 2017) open Malaysia 18/20 may on subs trip via Indo to China ard $37,500 - cnr

Eraclea (54,876 2010) heard fixed $29,000 dop lianyungang via skorea reedly cont- daewoo

Sheng An Hai 56k fixed indo China at 36k passing Singapore - cnr

56K VSL OPEN SPORE FIXED USD 32,000 DOP FOR A TRIP TO CHINA VIA INDONESIA

Diana Shipping Inc. has announced that, through a separate wholly-owned subsidiary, it has entered into a time charter contract with Bocimar International N.V., for one of its Kamsarmax dry bulk vessels, the m/v Myrsini. The gross charter rate is US$27 750/d, minus a 5% commission paid to third parties, for a time charter period until minimum 15 October 2021 up to maximum 30 November 2021. The charter is expected to commence on 10 May 2021.

The m/v Myrsini is currently chartered, as previously announced, to Ausca Shipping Limited, Hong Kong, at a gross charter rate of US$11 500/d, minus a 5% commission paid to third parties.

The Myrsini is a 82 117 DWT Kamsarmax dry bulk vessel built in 2010.

The employment of Myrsini is anticipated to generate approximately US$4.3 million of gross revenue for the minimum scheduled period of the time charter.

What's the opportunity in Diana Shipping?

Great news for investors – Diana Shipping is still trading at a fairly cheap price. According to my valuation, the intrinsic value for the stock is $6.52, but it is currently trading at US$4.05 on the share market, meaning that there is still an opportunity to buy now. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investiga…-073344967.html

Quote from jasko

What's the opportunity in Diana Shipping?

Great news for investors – Diana Shipping is still trading at a fairly cheap price. According to my valuation, the intrinsic value for the stock is $6.52, but it is currently trading at US$4.05 on the share market, meaning that there is still an opportunity to buy now. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investiga…-073344967.html

Tako se i ATPL trži trenutno po 350-360 kn, a realno bi se trebala tržiti po znatno višim cijenama. A i to će bit i to vrlo uskoro...

Route Description Size Value ($) Change
BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 39055 -2976
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 27606 -134
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 24963 264
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 22342 332

BDI 3139 -115

U srijedu je indeks Baltic Dry pao za 3,5 posto, na 3.139 bodova.

• Capesize pada 7,1 posto na 39.055 dolara.
• Panamax pada 0,5 posto na 26.270 dolara.
• Handysize pada 1,7 posto na 20 376 dolara.
• Supramax raste 1,1 posto na 24.963

BDI -3,5% 3.139

• Capesize - 7,1 % 39.055
  
• Panamax - 0,5 % 26.270
  
• Handysize -1,7 % 20.376
• Supramax 1,1 % 24.963
  

Quote from BabaLuji

U srijedu je indeks Baltic Dry pao za 3,5 posto, na 3.139 bodova.

• Capesize pada 7,1 posto na 39.055 dolara.
• Panamax pada 0,5 posto na 26.270 dolara.
• Handysize pada 1,7 posto na 20 376 dolara.
• Supramax raste 1,1 posto na 24.963

Quote from goldfinger

BDI -3,5% 3.139

• Capesize - 7,1 % 39.055
  
• Panamax - 0,5 % 26.270
  
• Handysize -1,7 % 20.376
• Supramax 1,1 % 24.963
  

Mala ispravka handysize +1,65%, 20.376$ +332

Cnb dokaz na dokaz na dokaz

It also announced the sale of two Chinese 2012 built, Kamsarmax class, vessels at gross sale prices of $22.5M and $22M with scheduled delivery dates within Q2 and Q3 of 2021 respectively.

Impresivno, rast SH se nastavlja i nastavlja...

Evo malo novo normalnih futuresa iron orea

Quote from gigic23

Evo malo novo normalnih futuresa iron orea

I posljedično tome steel scrap .....ode.....

The dry market continued to surge ahead this week, led by the capes. As Iron Ore prices rise, the miners are eager to transport as much of the commodity as possible.

Another strong week for the kamsarmax/panamax sector with tonnage tight in both basins thanks to the upturn in demand.

The smaller sizes have seen plenty of timecharter activity this week, particularly in the pacific as the market returned from holidays.

IRON ORE ON SGX DROPS MORE THAN 5% AS RECORD RALLY STALLS

Shipping is a seasonal business. Commodity producers and commodity consumers are subject to weather patterns that affect the flow of goods, both from a supply as well as a demand perspective. For dry bulk, seasonality is mainly focused on weather-related disruptions, seasonal construction demand, stocking cycles, heating degree days, and grain harvesting.

Most industry participants know that the first calendar quarter of each year is the weakest period of the year. Our work confirms that, although it is not universal across all asset classes. In fact, March has proven to be one of the strongest months for smaller size vessels, while during years when the rainy season is not as profound in Brazil, Capesize rates have also thrived during March.

Freight futures prices tend to reflect seasonality, with second half pricing usually above first half. However, the contango is not as wide as it should be, leaving significant upside, especially in the absence of “carry” in freight. We believe market participants should focus on sequential demand changes rather than relative pricing, to gauge the potential strength of seasonality in freight rates.

Over the last 10 years, on average, market participants have underestimated the strength on the market’s seasonality, with significant potential returns. We believe negative bias as a result of spot activity and of course the lack of “carry trade” in freight, are the main reasons for such discrepancy.

Figure 1. Futures versus Settlement. (Futures prices as of

May 1st of each year)

Capesize rates exhibit the most seasonality

When it comes to dry bulk, Capesize vessels exhibit the most seasonality. That should come at no surprise, as Capesize vessels mainly transport iron ore, which as the chart above shows, exhibits considerable seasonal fluctuations. Most market participants know that the first quarter of the year is the weakest period for Capesize rates. Both Australia and Brazil produce and export less iron ore and that has an impact on Capesize freight rates. As the year progresses, freight rates tend to improve, in line with higher exports and thus increased demand for transportation. However, as we will later discuss, the degree that such improvements are priced into the futures market is quite low, an inefficiency which we think is exploitable.

To measure seasonality, we plotted the deviation of each month average spot rates from the annual average. For example, in a year that the average Capesize spot rate is 20,000 and the average March spot rate is 15,000, we assign a 75% value to the month of March.

Figure 4: Capesize spot rate seasonality, 2011- 2019 settlements

On smaller sizes, seasonality is less profound. Except for the first quarter of the calendar year, and a brief deep in early summer (shoulder months), the year seems relatively stable in terms of fluctuations.