Posts by lebowski

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Container ships still renting for $160,000 a day despite import fears
    Spot freight rates are easing, but in a sign of resilience, container-ship charter rates remain near all-time highs.
    www.freightwaves.com

    Kad čovjek pročita sve te falling-of-a-cliff članke, pomislio bi da vlasnici brodova trebaju platiti nekom da ih iznajme, kad ono, mauna!

    “This rate … is not far off the historical high of $175,000 per day [for that size category] obtained in January,” said Alphaliner.

    Palo sa 175.000 dolara dnevno na mizernih 149.000 dolara.

    Brokerage Harper Peterson & Co. publishes the Harpex index. The index (covering 700- to 8,500-TEU ships) peaked in mid-March, dipped slightly through April, held steady in May and began rising again this month. The Harpex is currently down 3% versus its peak, but still more than double its level at this time last year.

    Ja sam početkom tjedna dokupio DAC koji mi je smiješno jeftin, a kako izgleda, ovih dana bit će još smješnije jeftin.

    Već sad je globalni congestion (uključujući Europu) veći nego što je bio prošle godine, a svi ovi novi brodovi i strahovi vezani uz njih dolaze tek sredinom iduće godine. Sad kad se Kina otvorila, treba čekati mjesec-dva pa ćemo vidjeti što će se događati. Po meni, bit će još gore nego prošle godine, jer sad imamo congestion i na istočnoj obali i u pola Europe.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Evo malo još o kontejnerima:

    Splash Extra June 2022


    While there is now strong evidence that container shipping's record bull run has peaked, analysts argue that unlike the last time the sector went from peak to trough this time around there is little chance of tough charter renegotiations.

    In the wake of 2008's global financial crisis, many liners found themselves in a precarious financial position.

    A famous story from that period saw one of the best known names in container shipping - now deceased - take a suite at the Atlantic Hotel in Hamburg and summon in a host of German tonnage providers to rip up his charter contracts with them in front of their faces. Similar abrupt charter renegotiations were widespread at the time.

    In 2022, liners have taken on a huge swathe of tonnage under onerous circumstances - at very high prices, and for longer periods than normal. The difference this time around as the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index and other indices show signs of slumping? Liners are in an extraordinary cash-rich position, something that should provide some reassurance to tonnage providers as the container market unwinds.

    Softening spot rates have fallen below long-term contracted rates this month, historically a firm pointer that the container sector is set to fall. Multiple surveys point towards a decrease in consumer demand on the back of soaring inflation. Major retailers have indicated lately inventory overstocking, something that is also pushing rates south.

    We are indeed at a turning point in the market, Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, told Splash Extra. However, Sand said the key difference this time compared to previous turns in the cycle is simple: Liners are loaded with cash. No one is at the brink of bankruptcy because the blanket has been removed from underneath them.

    In 2021 and 2022, container shipping operators are on track to record all time high combined profits in excess of $400bn, with operating margins in the most recent quarterly reports on average above 50%.

    The kind of money operating owners have made in 2021 and will make in 2022 and 2023 have already paid for future charter hires, Sand said.

    Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at UK analyst Drewry, concurred, saying the current situation is vastly different to the period following the global financial crisis.

    Liners will not be able to plead poverty after the bounty of the previous two years, with more to come in our view, Heaney said, adding: There is a growing risk for carriers to be stuck with expensive long-term fixtures after the freight rates boom has ended, but they now at least have a very plump cushion to fall back on.

    Hua Joo Tan, who heads up research outfit Linerlytica, said there was no charterer at risk of insolvency at the moment.

    Jan Tiedemann, a shipping analyst at Alphaliner, agreed with his peers, telling Splash Extra: Most carriers are sitting on a big fat pile of cash. So even when the economy turns sour, they should be able to pay their bills for the next few years.

    Drewry's World Container Index composite index decreased by 3% last week to $7,285.89 per feu, and is 10% lower than the same week in 2021, but still remains more than $3,500 higher than the five-year average.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Evo nekih brojeva o kontejnerašima s Mintzovog foruma, nisu njegovi nego od nicka frko. Valuacije su napravljene uz pretpostavku teških medvjeda. Naravno, ne znači da DAC i banda ne mogu još dole, dapače, ali ove razine su privlačne poput vjetrovke HDZ-a koja otvara sva vrata.

    DAC-GSL-ESEA-MPCC: Last week we looked at EBITDA backlog as a % of EV and market cap as one of several valuation metrics. The backlog includes material EBITDA already secured for the years after 2025, esp. in the case of DAC and GSL. However, In a stress scenario we should assume that the containership lessors won't generate material positive cash flows after 2025. Consequently, if we disregard all contracted revenues as from 2026 as these - together with future revenues not yet contracted - will barely cover each company's expenses in a stress scenario, and if we instead concentrate only on the profitable years until (and including) 2025 with fleets only valued at scrap thereafter, the picture looks like this (all numbers are in dollars per share, MPCC in NOK per share):


    ESEA:

    52.93 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 18.78 current net debt incl. capex for 2 NBs that have already secured charters

    + 23.45 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt) and 2 NBs at 20% discount

    *= 57.60 remaining value = 138% above current share price*

    *= 49.38 remaining value = 104% above share price with capex for all 9 NBs included in net debt and 20% value discount for all 9 NBs*


    DAC:

    106.86 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 51.64 current net debt excl. NB capex

    + 32.03 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt)

    + 5.96 net proceeds from sale of 2 vessels

    + 12.39 ZIM stake valued at 45/sh

    *= 105.60 remaining value = 70% above current share price*

    *= 101.75 remaining value = 64% above current share price with capex for all NBs included in net debt and 20% value discount for all NBs*


    MPCC:

    31.10 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 7.94 current net debt incl. capex for 2 NBs with secured charters

    + 7.77 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt) and 2 NBs at 20% discount

    *= 30.93 remaining value = 55% above current share price*


    GSL:

    38.98 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 28.94 current net debt incl. preferred capital

    + 15.90 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt)

    *= 25.94 remaining value = 52% above current share price*


    The bear argument by many (not all) has been that containership lessors will trade at a (steep?) discount to a rapidly falling NAV in a bear market during which charter rates and fleet values crash. However, it is hard to imagine that the market will value the fleets even below scrap value for a sustained period of time. Therefore, imo, the aforementioned numbers should be regarded as a valuation floor that builds over time with cash flow generation, unless managements decide to keep unprofitable, cash-burning vessels in operation after 2025.


    All OCF numbers include est. dd expenses and are not discounted. For companies which have ordered newbuilds, but have not yet secured charters for all NBs, I have calculated the values separately with and without the NBs which have not yet been put on charters. For MPCC I have assumed a USD/NOK exchange rate of 9.5.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Quote from looserst
    Quote from lebowski

    Korelacija prvog bullwhip članka i pada kontejneraša je u dlaku, tako da ne bih rekao da je to nepopularan članak. Rekao bih da je jako popularan i da se upravo tim člancima objašnjava pad linera i charteraša.

    I sad je tu dvojba tko je u pravu, a ta dvojba će se početi rješavati od srpnja nadalje kad kreće božićna dostava iz Kine. Ako je ne bude, bullwhip je u pravu.

    Kazu da je uvijek market u pravu a market je dac i gsl skoro prepolovio :rolleyes:

    Šta da ti kažem, nisu brodari Bitcoin pa da stalno rastu.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Korelacija prvog bullwhip članka i pada kontejneraša je u dlaku, tako da ne bih rekao da je to nepopularan članak. Rekao bih da je jako popularan i da se upravo tim člancima objašnjava pad linera i charteraša.

    I sad je tu dvojba tko je u pravu, a ta dvojba će se početi rješavati od srpnja nadalje kad kreće božićna dostava iz Kine. Ako je ne bude, bullwhip je u pravu.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Da, a market je uvijek u pravu.

    Nego, DAC je imao masivni buyback prije jedno godinu-dvije, pronaći ću podatke pa javim konkretno, ali užasno puno su zaradili na tome.

    Nije bilo teško pronaći:

    Danaos Corporation Announces Share Repurchases
    Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC) announced it has repurchased 4,339,271 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $31.1 million in privately…
    www.danaos.com

    ATHENS, Greece, Oct. 12, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC) announced it has repurchased 4,339,271 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $31.1 million in privately negotiated transactions, including 2,517,013 shares from the Royal Bank of Scotland and 1,822,258 shares from Sphinx Investment Corp. These transactions will result in the Company's previously announced share repurchase program being terminated.

    Nije loše, za godinu i pol udeseterostručili ulaganje.

    A sad kupuju ponovno...

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Dok svijet juri u globalnu recenziju, evo nekih podataka o kontejnerima:

    New containership fixtures:

    - DAC: CMA CGM Musset (6,540 TEU) at 62,000 for 3 years, starting in Feb. 2023

    - Atco (Seaspan): Seaspan Chiba and Seaspan Kobe (both 4.520 TEU) at 43,000 for 5 years, starting in March 2023

    Rates are still very strong. DAC's Musset is currently on a mega lucrative market-rate charter at 152k per day until October. The charterer has an option to extend the market-rate charter for a period of up to 6 months. Looks like this option will be exercised for a period of 4 months from Nov. until Jan., considering that the new 3-y 62k charter starts in February 2023.

    Onda imamo i NAVIOS:

    https://ir.navios-mlp.com/news-releases/…acquisition-two

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from Blister
    Quote from maratonac

    Ništa ne govori količina postavljenih naloga bilo na bidu ili asku. To je trenutno promjenjiva kategorija. A ima li ili nema povjerenja u perspektivu tvrtke, to će vrijeme pokazati. Uvijek je nekome čaša napola prazna, a nekome napola puna.

    Dionica očito nije ispunila očekivanja ni rastom niti dividendom. Dobro da je i tu gdje je.

    Znači, meni recimo ATPL vrijedi 800 kn. Ta cijena se očito nije dogodila. Pa ću je prodati na 480 kn jer dobro da je i tu gdje je.