Posts by lebowski

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Evo nekih brojeva o kontejnerašima s Mintzovog foruma, nisu njegovi nego od nicka frko. Valuacije su napravljene uz pretpostavku teških medvjeda. Naravno, ne znači da DAC i banda ne mogu još dole, dapače, ali ove razine su privlačne poput vjetrovke HDZ-a koja otvara sva vrata.

    DAC-GSL-ESEA-MPCC: Last week we looked at EBITDA backlog as a % of EV and market cap as one of several valuation metrics. The backlog includes material EBITDA already secured for the years after 2025, esp. in the case of DAC and GSL. However, In a stress scenario we should assume that the containership lessors won't generate material positive cash flows after 2025. Consequently, if we disregard all contracted revenues as from 2026 as these - together with future revenues not yet contracted - will barely cover each company's expenses in a stress scenario, and if we instead concentrate only on the profitable years until (and including) 2025 with fleets only valued at scrap thereafter, the picture looks like this (all numbers are in dollars per share, MPCC in NOK per share):


    ESEA:

    52.93 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 18.78 current net debt incl. capex for 2 NBs that have already secured charters

    + 23.45 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt) and 2 NBs at 20% discount

    *= 57.60 remaining value = 138% above current share price*

    *= 49.38 remaining value = 104% above share price with capex for all 9 NBs included in net debt and 20% value discount for all 9 NBs*


    DAC:

    106.86 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 51.64 current net debt excl. NB capex

    + 32.03 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt)

    + 5.96 net proceeds from sale of 2 vessels

    + 12.39 ZIM stake valued at 45/sh

    *= 105.60 remaining value = 70% above current share price*

    *= 101.75 remaining value = 64% above current share price with capex for all NBs included in net debt and 20% value discount for all NBs*


    MPCC:

    31.10 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 7.94 current net debt incl. capex for 2 NBs with secured charters

    + 7.77 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt) and 2 NBs at 20% discount

    *= 30.93 remaining value = 55% above current share price*


    GSL:

    38.98 OCF Q2 '22-Q4'25

    - 28.94 current net debt incl. preferred capital

    + 15.90 fleet valued at scrap (400lwt)

    *= 25.94 remaining value = 52% above current share price*


    The bear argument by many (not all) has been that containership lessors will trade at a (steep?) discount to a rapidly falling NAV in a bear market during which charter rates and fleet values crash. However, it is hard to imagine that the market will value the fleets even below scrap value for a sustained period of time. Therefore, imo, the aforementioned numbers should be regarded as a valuation floor that builds over time with cash flow generation, unless managements decide to keep unprofitable, cash-burning vessels in operation after 2025.


    All OCF numbers include est. dd expenses and are not discounted. For companies which have ordered newbuilds, but have not yet secured charters for all NBs, I have calculated the values separately with and without the NBs which have not yet been put on charters. For MPCC I have assumed a USD/NOK exchange rate of 9.5.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Quote from looserst
    Quote from lebowski

    Korelacija prvog bullwhip članka i pada kontejneraša je u dlaku, tako da ne bih rekao da je to nepopularan članak. Rekao bih da je jako popularan i da se upravo tim člancima objašnjava pad linera i charteraša.

    I sad je tu dvojba tko je u pravu, a ta dvojba će se početi rješavati od srpnja nadalje kad kreće božićna dostava iz Kine. Ako je ne bude, bullwhip je u pravu.

    Kazu da je uvijek market u pravu a market je dac i gsl skoro prepolovio :rolleyes:

    Šta da ti kažem, nisu brodari Bitcoin pa da stalno rastu.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Korelacija prvog bullwhip članka i pada kontejneraša je u dlaku, tako da ne bih rekao da je to nepopularan članak. Rekao bih da je jako popularan i da se upravo tim člancima objašnjava pad linera i charteraša.

    I sad je tu dvojba tko je u pravu, a ta dvojba će se početi rješavati od srpnja nadalje kad kreće božićna dostava iz Kine. Ako je ne bude, bullwhip je u pravu.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Da, a market je uvijek u pravu.

    Nego, DAC je imao masivni buyback prije jedno godinu-dvije, pronaći ću podatke pa javim konkretno, ali užasno puno su zaradili na tome.

    Nije bilo teško pronaći:

    Danaos Corporation Announces Share Repurchases
    Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC) announced it has repurchased 4,339,271 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $31.1 million in privately…
    www.danaos.com

    ATHENS, Greece, Oct. 12, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Danaos Corporation (NYSE: DAC) announced it has repurchased 4,339,271 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price of $31.1 million in privately negotiated transactions, including 2,517,013 shares from the Royal Bank of Scotland and 1,822,258 shares from Sphinx Investment Corp. These transactions will result in the Company's previously announced share repurchase program being terminated.

    Nije loše, za godinu i pol udeseterostručili ulaganje.

    A sad kupuju ponovno...

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Dok svijet juri u globalnu recenziju, evo nekih podataka o kontejnerima:

    New containership fixtures:

    - DAC: CMA CGM Musset (6,540 TEU) at 62,000 for 3 years, starting in Feb. 2023

    - Atco (Seaspan): Seaspan Chiba and Seaspan Kobe (both 4.520 TEU) at 43,000 for 5 years, starting in March 2023

    Rates are still very strong. DAC's Musset is currently on a mega lucrative market-rate charter at 152k per day until October. The charterer has an option to extend the market-rate charter for a period of up to 6 months. Looks like this option will be exercised for a period of 4 months from Nov. until Jan., considering that the new 3-y 62k charter starts in February 2023.

    Onda imamo i NAVIOS:

    https://ir.navios-mlp.com/news-releases/…acquisition-two

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from Blister
    Quote from maratonac

    Ništa ne govori količina postavljenih naloga bilo na bidu ili asku. To je trenutno promjenjiva kategorija. A ima li ili nema povjerenja u perspektivu tvrtke, to će vrijeme pokazati. Uvijek je nekome čaša napola prazna, a nekome napola puna.

    Dionica očito nije ispunila očekivanja ni rastom niti dividendom. Dobro da je i tu gdje je.

    Znači, meni recimo ATPL vrijedi 800 kn. Ta cijena se očito nije dogodila. Pa ću je prodati na 480 kn jer dobro da je i tu gdje je.

  • Stagflacija

    Quote from verdi

    ako sam dobro shvatio fed je ove kamate odredio na 2mj. slijedeća odluka negdje kraj kolovoza ili rujan. manje više krize se tad i dešavaju kad ameri dođu sa godišnjih odmora. mora se desiti neka BUUUM vijest. pravi okidač jer frka u ukraini je njima ipak daleko, a sve se režira da bi se njih dojmilo.

    Ako sam dobro shvatio, nisi dobro shvatio.

    Powell says the Fed could hike rates by 0.75 percentage point again in July
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank could raise interest rates by a similar magnitude at the next policy meeting in July.
    www.cnbc.com

  • DRY BULK

    Evo malo za proučavanje, CEO Eglea intervju o midsize bulkerima, a onda i o ukrajinskom žitu.

    GV: Sorry, no, maybe just to that point. I mean, there's a few things, right. Capesize vessels, primarily carry iron ore, coal, and then bauxite. We carry major bulk, but we derive two-thirds of our demand from minor bulk cargoes. So we have incredible number, both of the types of commodities we carry, as well as the geography. I mean, last year, as an example China was responsible for 47% of major bulk demand, and just 22% of minor bulk. Now 22% is not an insignificant number. But it pales in comparison to the 47%.

    And so because we carry so many cargoes and diverse geography as well, that's really what drives the less volatility. And so when you look at the rates, for whatever reason, your capesize vessels get all the headlines. And when they run up to $30,000 people often talk about the capesize market on the move, because these swings are quite large. But if you look at it capesize vessels and 10 year old vessels cost about 1.7 times as much. And so our ships have been earning significantly more overall so far this year. And that's without even putting in the fact that those ships cost, as I mentioned, 1.7 times more, and then you overlay that volatility. So the midsize has been a really good place to be for all of those reasons.

    ***

    GV: Yeah, so I mean, first and foremost is of course, the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine. And then secondarily, a lack of volumes is likely going to impact certain destinations and likely more developing nations than otherwise. I mean, the grain was approximately 15%. There's almost nothing moving out of Ukraine right now. And there's very little -- there is the potential, Turkey trying to negotiate and export opportunities for grain. But so far that hasn't materialized.

    So our expectation is that grain volumes overall will be negative this year, by around 3.5% to 4% year-over-year. Having said that, I've talked about it before that offset is the ton mile, as an example, about 60% of the exports from Black Sea are relatively short trade, short haul, I should say, excuse me. About one-third go to ports in the Mediterranean or the Black Sea. And then about another 25% go to Northern Europe, Middle East and Africa. And so those -- a lot of those are now getting replaced with longer haul trade. And just as an example we're moving grain from Brazil to North Africa, which clearly would have been a trade done from the Black Sea.

    And so that ties up more days on a ship. That's the ton mile, the product of tons times the distance moved that we talk about. More impactful is we've actually are moving coal cargoes from Indonesia to the Continent. That's actually a trade we at Eagle have never done before in almost seven years since I've been here. And that's an incredibly long duration voyage. Typically the coal that Eagle moves is from Indonesia to either China, Vietnam or India. So moving coal to the Continent is much, much longer. And in addition, it's historically a backhaul rate for us, which is at a discount to the index. At the moment voyages from the Pacific to the Atlantic are trading at a premium to the index because of this increased demand.

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Kupovina dionica svakako je neka vrsta poluge. Kad vrijednost brodova raste, raste i vrijednost dionice i obratno. NAV se brzo mijenja. Da nije tako, ne bi ATPL smanjila za godinu dana koeficijent zaduženosti sa 163% na 64%.
    Ja nisam za buyback ATPL po 600 kn, iako je i to ispod NAV-a. Ali kad se događaju neki ekstremni padovi poput ovih, svakako bi bilo dobro imati opciju buybacka, a još bolje bi bilo znati je iskoristiti.
    Što se tiče podjele dionica dioničarima, nisam fan. Više bih volio poništavanje dionica. Što češće i što više što se ATPL tiče. :D