Objavio break wave na twiteru, moguće vrlo dobra vijest EVERGRANDE HAS RESUMED CONSTRUCTION 668 OF 706 CHINA PROJECTS

EVERGRANDE ASKS REST OF PROJECTS TO RESUME CONSTRUCTION END-SEP

Smax Index 10tc $16,355: Sep 16900 +700 Oct 17250 +1250 Nov 17000 +1800 Q4 16500 +1400 Q1 11500 +350 Cal23 12300 +450 Cal24 11750 +100 Cal25 12150 +200

Weekly Vessel Valuations Report, August 30 2022

in Weekly Vessel Valuations Report 30/08/2022

Bulkers: Bulker values have softened.

No Bulker sales reported last week.

Tankers: MR values have firmed.

VLCC DHT Edelweiss (301,000 DWT, Jan 2008, Daewoo) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 37.00 mil, VV Value USD 40.93 mil – SS Due.

Suezmax Ridgebury Captain Drogin (166,500 DWT, Jul 2007, Hyundai Heavy Ind) sold to unknown Greek buyers for USD 28.75 mil, VV Value USD 29.97 mil – SS Due.

Aframax Imperia (114,800 DWT, May 2006, Samsung) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 31.50 mil, VV Value USD 27.66 mil – SS Passed.

MR2 FSL Singapore (47,500 DWT, Jul 2006, Hyundai Mipo) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 18.00 mil, VV Value USD 16.37 mil.

Nije nešto ali čovjeka veseli malo zelenila nakon duže suše na budućnosnicama

Freight futures am update

Capesize up ~4%

Panamax flat

#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

Today: 8,783 -321

MTD avg 12,661

YTD avg 17,952 vs '21 YTD 25,804

'22 bal FFA 15K

Green figures on the Cape FFA at least.

Could backhaul coal trade make it up, or will the extra tonnage in Atlantic worsen C3 potential. Time will show

#dividends #drybulk #capesize #2020bulkers

Za sada ovako, parcijalno

Freight futures am update

Capesize down ~7%

Panamax down ~2%

#shipping #drybulk $BDRY

Today: 9,104 -1,794

MTD avg 13,013

YTD avg 18,011 vs '21 YTD 25,712

'22 bal FFA 15K

It's almost embarrassing to present today's index.

Could this downturn encourage more scrapping?

#2020bulkers fleet outperforming BCI by +100%

#dividends #drybulk #capesize

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 10898 -1859

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 17161 -178

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 17526 22

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 17598 -125

BDI INDEX 1477 -79

#shipping #drybulk #FFA $BDRY

#capesize #panamax # supermax

$DSX $EGLE $GBLK $GNK $GOGL $SBLK $SHIP $PANL

BPI timecharter average Weighted average of the 5 T/C routes 82500 17339 -46

BSI timecharter average Weighted average of the 10 T/C routes 58328 17504 -250

BHSI timecharter average Weighted average of the 7 T/C routes 38200 17723 -429

Za one koji idu na GS predlažem da se proba iskomunicirati prijedlog kvartalne isplate dividende u odnosu na ostvarenu kvartalnu dobit, kao što uostalom rade i većina tvrtki iz bulk sektora.

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 14842 -1505

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 18047 -188

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 19854 -673

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 20099 -437

BDI INDEX 1731 -86

#shipping #drybulk #FFA $BDRY

#capesize #panamax # supermax

$DSX $EGLE $GBLK $GNK $GOGL $SBLK $SHIP $PANL

Nije skupa, dapače, ali je poprilično rizična, kratkoročne obveze se ne samo ne pokrivaju kratkoročnom imovinom već ih i nadmašuju. Inače taj odnos bi trebao biti 2 puta veći u korist imovine. Taj odnos duga i imovine meni je neprihvatljiv. Sa druge strane nav je smiješno mali i kad bi se firma prodala svi koji su u njoj bi masno zaradili. Ako se doba visokih vozarina nastavi super ali ako se trend pokvari vrlo brzo upadaju u probleme. Špekulativno vjerojatno najpotentnija tvrtka dugoročnije izrazito rizična i za sada poprilično nelikvidna. Btw odnos krat. imovine i krat. duga kod sestrinske Atpl je oko 2,5 a i ona se zbog općeg stanja na tržištu muči i trži daleko ispod fer vrijednosti. Na kraju, volio bih znati tko i sa kojom kamatom će Jdpl dati kredit za nove brodove. Moje mišljenje je da će kamata biti opasno visoka jer se kreditira tvrtka koja je već sada jako zadužena i time će još više povećati buduću rizičnost poslovanja. Kolateral imaju, vozarine za sada odlične i omogućavaju servisiranje duga te akumuliraju dobit ali.... Ako se trend promijeni bit će do viđenja bez mogućnosti države da ih ovaj put spasi.

C3 Tubarao Qingdao 29.728 $/ton -1.055
C5 West Australia Qingdao 10.715 $/ton -0.455
C7 Bolivar Rotterdam 16.139 $/ton -0.178 C17 20.956 $/ton -0.277

5TC 21526 -836

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 21999 -553

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 18455 709

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 22800 169

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 21820 110

BDI INDEX 2118 +5

#shipping #drybulk #FFA $BDRY

#capesize #panamax # supermax

$DSX $EGLE $GBLK $GNK $GOGL $SBLK $SHIP $PANL

Outlook

We expect a continued strong market for 2022 with 2.1% tonne mile growth for minor bulk and 2.7% for 2023 expected against net fleet supply growth of 1.9% and -2.2% respectively and subject to actual fleet removals (Clarksons Research). The short-term impact of the war in Ukraine has seen a shift in trading patterns for the shipping of necessity goods, both to source alternative suppliers and with Russia exports shipping to different destinations. So far, the net change to demand seems to be negligible for our segment, once the decrease in volumes is offset by increased tonne-miles. We expect current Covid lockdowns in China to be transitory and for demand to rebound, as experienced following previous lockdowns. Acknowledging uncertainty in the wider economy, we remain optimistic about the Handysize segment given tightening supply over the next two years and possibly longer. The orderbook remains at historical lows and a significant uptick in newbuild contracting remains unlikely for now given both cost inflation and pending more deep-seated change to ship designs to meet evolving environmental demands. This dynamic will continue to support firm asset valuations and charter rates.

Source: Taylor Maritime

Vrijednost brodova od 12.07.

U prvoj polovici 2022. kinesko gospodarstvo bilo je pogođeno slabom potražnjom i niskim gospodarskim rastom, djelomično vođenom njihovom politikom nultog COVID-a. Slabije gospodarstvo zemlje uzrokovalo je manju potražnju za čelikom, što znači da je proizvodnja pala za 8,7% na godišnjoj razini od svibnja.

S obzirom na manje zahtjeve za željeznom rudačom, ne samo da je opao izvoz u Kinu, već je došlo i do povećanja zaliha u čeličanama i lukama. To će vjerojatno odgoditi oporavak izvoza željezne rude u Kinu.

„Budući da Kina čini 71% ukupne trgovine željeznom rudačom, a željezna rudača čini 74% tereta kojim upravlja Capesizes, ovo usporavanje je uvelike utjecalo na segment. Baltic Capesize Index ostao je volatilan do sada u 2022., dostigavši vrhunac 23. svibnja na 4602 boda nakon čega je uslijedio nagli pad tijekom lipnja na prosječnih 2518 bodova,” kaže Niels Rasmussen, glavni analitičar za otpremu u BIMCO-u.

U stambenom sektoru, važnom sektoru krajnje upotrebe kineskog čelika, građevinsko područje razvoja nekretnina palo je 1,0% na godišnjoj razini u prvih pet mjeseci. Kako bi se potaknuo oporavak sektora, ograničenja tržišta nekretnina su olabavljena u cijeloj zemlji, a developeri su pokazali neke znakove oporavka u lipnju.

U još jednom potezu za pokretanje gospodarstva, kineska vlada je ubrzala izdavanje obveznica posebne namjene, izdajući većinu svoje kvote za 2022. od 3,6 bilijuna juana u prvih šest mjeseci ove godine.

„Osim toga, kinesko Ministarstvo financija razmatra izdavanje dodatnih 1,5 trilijuna juana iz svoje kvote za 2023. u drugoj polovici godine kako bi potaknulo rast,” kaže Rasmussen, „Budući da je većina tih obveznica dodijeljena infrastrukturnim projektima, ako Vlada odobri ovaj dodatni poticaj, kineski sektor čelika trebao bi se oporaviti u drugoj polovici godine.”

Izvor: BIMCO, glavni analitičar za brodarstvo, Niels Rasmussen

Bulkers: Older Panamax values have firmed

Post Panamax BC Celine Oldendorff (93,000 DWT, Jan 2010, COSCO Dalian) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 20.00 mil, VV Value USD 17.48 mil.

Panamax Van Continent (74,500 DWT, Jan 2007, Hudong Zhonghua) sold to HNA Technology Investments Holdings for USD 18.50 mil, VV Value USD 15.49 mil – SS Passed.

Ultramaxes Golden Cathrine and Golden Cecilie (60,300 DWT, Jan/Feb 2015, Japan Marine United) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 63.00 mil, VV Value USD 59.60 mil – DD Passed.

Supramaxes Van Duffy (52,400 DWT, Aug 2006, Tsuneishi Cebu) and Van General (57,300 DWT, Jul 2011, STX Dalian) sold to HNA Technology Investments Holdings for USD 36.20 mil, VV Value USD 34.96 mil – En Bloc.

Supramax Medi Bangkok (53,500 DWT, Sep 2006, Imabari) sold to unknown Chinese buyers for USD 17.50 mil, VV Value USD 16.61 mil – BBHP.

Handy BCs Venture Ocean and Venture Team (38,900 DWT, Oct/Nov 2015, Jiangmen Nanyang) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 50.00 mil, VV Value USD 49.15 mil – En Bloc.

Handy BC Omnia (36,800 DWT, Aug 2011, Hyundai Mipo) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 19.60 mil, VV Value USD 21.86 mil – BWTS Fitted.

Tankers: Aframax and LR1 values have firmed

Aframax Matterhorn Spirit (114,800 DWT, Nov 2005, Daewoo) sold to undisclosed buyers for USD 24.75 mil, VV Value USD 22.23 mil.

Post Panamax (Clean) Stena Paris (65,200 DWT, Dec 2005, Brodosplit) sold to Union Maritime for USD 15.50 mil, VV Value USD 12.96 mil – BWTS Fitted.

Containers: Post Panamax values have softened

Post Panamax Conts Northern Jasper and Northern Jupiter (8,814 TEU, Aug 2009/Feb 2010, Daewoo) sold to Moller Maersk AS for USD 268.00 mil, VV Value USD 273.98 mil – En Bloc.

We are seeing 2-3 Capes being fixed daily on C3 by miners and operators. If this trend continues, 20-30 ballasters will be cleared off the once-long ballaster list before 20 July, then we will start seeing a totally different market outlook than now. Positive tide arriving. https://t.co/cfBIs5zylO

Goldman Sachs cuts #China's 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 4.0%.

Quote from diokidina

Ne razumijem ovu paniku na prodavanju.

Nije to prvi put da se panicari na ovoj dionici. Ovo se cesto desava. Previse je malih, ali pocetnika.

Ali ovo je dobro za nas iskusne.

Npr i kod Lenca prije neki dan panika zbog ne isplate dividende, i vec sutra se vrati.

Jedna i druga dionica su firme u usponu, cemu panika. 🤷‍♂️

Jednom je netko rekao ( mislim da je iz knjige Inteligentni investitor) - Ako ne možeš gledati kako ti novci gore ne možeš ni ulagati na burzi. Fundamenti su jedno, cijena i sentiment su drugo. Navodno fundamenti pobjeđuju na duže staze. Vrijeme će pokazati.