Evo jako dobar pregled stanja i outlooka
Major bulk: iron ore, coal, and grain
In the same report - utilization index Q4 2021, IHS Markit predicts that the global dry bulk tonne-mile demand will increase by 3.3% in 2021, mainly driven by coal (6.1%) and minor bulk trade (13.0%). It will continue to grow by 4.5% in 2022, largely supported by global economic recovery-related industrial materials including iron ore (5.5%), coal (3.4%), and agricultural goods (5.1%).
More importantly, even if mainland China steel production may cease to increase, the rest of the world will eventually need to increase steel production to meet the anticipated global steel consumption growth in line with global urbanization and economic growth by 2-3% annually. This would cause steel product and iron ore trade pattern to change. The mainland Chinese market share in global iron ore imports will drop to less than 70% in the coming years from 80% in 2020. Since most of BOF fleet are situated in east Asia including Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, iron ore tonne-mile-trade distance is expected to remain similar compared with the shipments heading to mainland China. Specifically, steel capacity constraints owing to decarbonization and environmental demands will drive the usage for higher grade and benefit Brazilian high-grade ore export growth. Also, Brazilian iron ore and pellet capacity will continue to grow and is forecast to reach about 500 metric tons in 2023 with Vale hitting about 400 metric tons, although downside risk remains with reduced production of low margin product. Therefore, we expect Brazilian ore exports to grow by 8.4% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023 as the pandemic and license-related supply constraint issues are resolved.
On the contrary, we believe that the peak coal trade had ended in 2019 with limited new investment in the coal sector. With the recovery in energy demand and high gas prices, thermal coal demand is expected to remain strong with growth of 5.4% in 2021 and 1.2% in 2022 but will remain stagnant thereafter in line with the global energy mix shift; environmental policies that favor renewables and gas over thermal coal, and favor scrap over coking coal. Metallurgical coal trade will recover from its 2020 levels and grow in 2021 (4.8% y/y) and 2022 (5.0% y/y) but annual growth will start to slow once it is near its 2019 levels.
Our assumption for the agricultural trade demand outlook remains unchanged. Agricultural shipments will continue to grow in the coming years with a structural shift in appetite of emerging countries towards meat in line with urbanization.
Soybean trade has been slow in 2021 mainly owing to limited end-stock, but the trade growth will continue during 2022-23 as mainland China will increase its meat consumption. Mainland China's soybean imports started to recover from the African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2019 and 2021/22 soybean imports are forecast to be up 10% from 2017/18. With weaker grain and soybean shipments from the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021, stronger Brazilian grain season is expected in early 2022.
Corn trade is expected to increase during 2021-23 mainly from the U.S. and mainland China routes with the trade deal, incentivizing agricultural trade. Ukrainian and U.S. corn will increase market share in the coming months until South American corn season starts in the second quarter of 2022.
Wheat trade growth has been flat in 2021 owing to the pandemic and the tax issues from Russia, but will recover during 2022-23 with high feeding demand; the strength in feed grain demand offsets the negative tonnemile impact from the recovery of Australian exports, resulting in strong Black Sea exports.
With limited newbuilding contract and orderbook, dry bulk fleet growth will slow to 3.4% in 2021, 2.3% in 2022, compared with 4.1% in 2020.