Posts by StatusQuo

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Quote from accountant
    Quote from Backdraft

    Ja sam ga vec krenio shortati

    iako je puno sigurnije čekat da vidiš kud će Nasdaq i S&P u ponedjeljak, da ne bi bilo ovakvih iznenađenja kao nakon jobs reporta da krenu gore zajedno s 10Y yield

    ipak...

    Jeremy Grantham for CNBC

    Quote

    The FED, in my opinion, hasn't done a thing right since Paul Volcker who was brilliant... All of the others have encouraged a chain series of really dangerous asset bubbles... AVIS rent-a-car tripled in a day just because it said: 'hey dudes we're going to buy some EVs too'

    Jos malo od Granthama

    The higher you bid up the price of the asset, the lower the long term return u get

    or

    The higher the asset price the lower the rate at which you can compound wealth


    Why Grantham Says the Next Crash Will Rival 1929, 2000

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Market ce vecinom iznenadit u smjeru suprotno od ocekivanja barem kratkorocno cilj i je da vecina bude na krivoj nozi, od koga ce zaradjivat ako svi misle isto i rade isto

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    To su toliki giganti da je jednostavno tesko pogodit sve sastavnice kako ce se ponasat osim ako kompanija redovito transparentno ne obavjestava o svemu ali to treba pratit sta bi naravno bio posao analiticara, cinjenica je da kompanije sad svoje troskove-inflaciju pokusavaju prenit na kupca i da to vise nisu mala poskupljenja isto tako tesko je procijenit kojom brzinom ce usporit ili gubit korisnike i koliko ce taj pad nadomjestit rastom svojih usluga u svakom slucaju za kompanije-growth koje su na vecim multiplama jer je uracunat veci rast ce taj trend djelovat negativno i pitanje je koja kompanije ima bolju bazu koriusnika i koja je vise osjetljivija na poskupljenja, u svako slucaju rizicno pri ovakvim vrijednostima. Sta se tice feda i dizanja koliko sam istrazivao inicijalno dizanje kamata nije negativno za trziste ali moze postat s vremenom ovisno koliko je ekonomiija osjetljiva, u svakom slucaju nije pitanje samo kamata vec i otpustanja asseta koji moze djelovat negativno zbog smanjenja likvidnosti i ovisno da li ce fed ici s brzim nego ocekivanim tighteningom, zanimljivo ECB nije poduzeo neki dan nista.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Quote from accountant

    ništa od šorta na AMZN

    operating income $3.5 billion

    više od gornje granice koju su sami dali

    spasili su sutrašnji dan, možda?

    misterij velike dobiti riješen: unatoč prosječnoj operativnoj dobiti, spasio ih je dobitak od udjela u Rivianu, sad kad škvadra skuži iz čega je dobit, počet će prodavati (trenutno ga napucavaju):

    Quote
    • Net income increased to $14.3 billion in the fourth quarter, or $27.75 per diluted share, compared with $7.2 billion, or $14.09 per diluted share, in fourth quarter 2020. Fourth quarter 2021 net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $11.8 billion included in non-operating income from our common stock investment in Rivian Automotive, Inc., which completed an initial public offering in November.

    Onda kad se odbije rivian ispada da su zaradili dosta losije nego prosle godine ?


    A i oni su lipo poceli dizat cijene odma skoro 20%

    Amazon will increase the price of a Prime membership in the U.S., with the monthly fee going from $12.99 to $14.99, and the annual membership from $119 to $139. This is the first time Amazon has raised the price of Prime since 2018.


    Po ovome u 1Q nema nekog rasta ovisno opet jel 3 ili 8 nije mala razlika u rasponu, ali s manjim operativnim taman se ponisti osim ako nije 8%

    First Quarter 2022 Guidance

    • Net sales are expected to be between $112.0 billion and $117.0 billion, or to grow between 3% and 8% compared with first quarter 2021. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately 150 basis points from foreign exchange rates.
    • Operating income is expected to be between $3.0 billion and $6.0 billion, compared with $8.9 billion in first quarter 2021. This guidance includes approximately $1.0 billion lower depreciation expense due to increases in the estimated useful lives of our servers and networking equipment beginning on January 1, 2022.

  • DRY BULK

    Quote from lebowski
    Quote from jasko

    Evo šta kaže Mintzmyer                                                       

    Mintzmyer kaže da na kontejnerima sad žanje, a na pitanje koji segment misli da ima najviše potencijala sad, između dry bulka, tankera i kontejnera bira dry bulk.

    Zanimljivo je što je rekao da je na DAC-u najviše zaradio na rastu od 30 do 50$ zbog risk rewarda, iako je ulagao od 5$ nadalje.

    Dobar je Mintzmyer.

    Jasno kontenjeri su cisto consumer demand, zbog urusavanje consumer potraznje u bliskoj buducnosti uzrokovan vecom nezaposlenoscu i inflacijom, rast gdp-a ce se vise usmjeravat na drzavnu intervenciju kroz infrastrukturno ulaganje da bi se potakla zaposlenost i rast, zato su svi odma poceli s planovima o infrastrukturi, samo pitanje je tko ce to platit, prvo ce nas dotuc kamatama da smire inflaciju, onda porezima da potaknu financiranje drzavne potrosnje, osim ako QE opet ne bude u igri, a on ce u prvom mjestu ovisit o stanju inflacije, dok je visoke inflacije nema QE sve ovisi o realnoj ekonomiji, jesmo li dosli u tu fazu ili opet postoji ali i nastavak po starom pitanje je zasad se ne bi reklo.

  • Inflacija

    Inflacija se super stvar za zaduzena drustva koju tu inflaciju mogu prenit na kranjeg potrosaca, primjer brodara za koje se i kaze da su dobri u doba inflacije jer prvo radi inflacije vrijednost asseta im raste, a s druge strane sami biznis je taj koji stvara tu istu inflaciju indirektno, a onda im zbog toga naglo nastane ogromni nesrazmjer izmedju cijelokupne imovine i duga, jer sve u njihovom biznisu je volatilno ovisno o situaciji na marketu u odnosu na dug, uostalom vidimo i zadnjih 10 godina na nasoj burzi sva prezaduzena drustva su ili bankrotirala ili se jedva odrzavaju, samo iz razloga sta je izostala inflacija jer ocito iz samog poslovanja i nakon urusavanja asseta nisu nikako mogli taj dug vratit sta god radili u svom poslovanju, da je bilo inflacije onda bi i asset s vremenom rastao zajedno sa cijenom uslugom i dug bi se lakse servisirao, npr kao sta su ameri malo drugacije dobili inflaciju, kroz QE su uspjeli napucat cijenu asseta koji je dopustao vracanje duga i stvaranje novog samo sta inflacija ne mjeri cijenu asseta, zato sad ocito imamo posljedice ove inflacije iako je bila stalno samo ne u cijeloj ekonomiji. Postoje ciklusi kada se ulaze u growth, kada u value ili oboje, drugi problem je sta mi nemamo nikakve growth kompanije pa onda imamo rupu na zse od desetljeca dok se ciklus ne okrene jer nemamo kompanije koji mogu napravit znacajan rast na temelju organskog rasta, a nismo jedini samo kod nas je to vise izarazeno.

  • Inflacija

    Inflacija se tek zagrijava s poskupljenjima, porasti u odredjenim segmentima su drasticni, energija je bitan input u svim proizvodima da ne dodje do kaskadnog efekta poskupljenja sire robe

    UK energy bills to rise by over 50% in April as regulator announces hike
    Energy bills are set to rise drastically in the U.K. after the country's energy regulator announced its cap on prices would rise by 54% in April.
    www.cnbc.com
    • The U.K. has limits on how much suppliers are able to charge consumers for energy.
    • Britain’s energy price caps are reviewed by the government’s regulator, Ofgem, every six months.
    • Ofgem, the energy sector regulator, said on Thursday that its price cap would be raised by 54%, marking a record-breaking increase.

  • DRY BULK

    Mainland Chinese key dry bulk commodities fundamental demand is projected to stable in 2022
    Mainland Chinese key dry bulk commodities fundamental demand is projected to stable in 2022
    ihsmarkit.com

    Mainland Chinese key dry bulk commodities fundamental demand is projected to stable in 2022


    With the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 Winter Olympics dampening the economy development, mainland China's GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2021 was 4%, which is lower than the 4.9% growth recorded in the previous quarter and 6.5% lower than the growth recorded in the corresponding period a year earlier. The National Bureau of Statistics said mainland China's GDP grew 8.1% in 2021, partly owing to the low base growth of only 2.2% in 2020. IHS Markit forecasts mainland China's GDP growth for 2022 will be 5.4%. Economic policy will change in 2022 to encourage growth in reaction to the slowdown. Mainland China's economy is faces challenges from COVID-19 outbreaks that are weighing on consumption and the property market downturn. Mainland China needs more stimulus in 2022 to sustain its economic recovery. Earlier this week, IHS Markit observed the government announcing monetary stimulus and a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate to help the struggling property industry.

    As economic growth is highly correlated with dry bulk freight rate, and with the government aiming for a stable GDP growth in 2022, the dry bulk industry can be expected to gain momentum and improve towards the end of this quarter.

    Mainland China's steel output has been reduced to realize the government's 'blue sky' goal for the Winter Olympics that are set to open in February 2022; Chinese steel production hub Tangshan has issued orange alerts several times in the winter to combat heavy pollution. Steel mills were forced to curb output until further notice. Dropping steel output weakened demand for raw material — iron ore. According to IHS Markit's Commodities at Sea data, total iron ore shipment arrivals to mainland China in 2021 were down 2.8% year on year (y/y) from the record high levels in 2020 although Chinese iron ore imports marginally increased 3% month on month (m/m) in December 2021 with winter restocking demand.

    After bottoming out in mid-November 2021, iron ore prices were back above $130 per metric ton (62% CFR Qingdao), hoping for the mainland Chinese government's stimulus package for the property sector amid ongoing concerns about supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil. Minor adjustment on iron ore prices is within expectation when traders become more cautious considering the approaching Chinese New Year and Winter Olympics. However, economic growth will be essential for mainland China in 2022 as the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) will be held this year. Thus in the medium-term point of view for the entire 2022, IHS Markit believes mainland China's iron ore imports will be supported at least until the third quarter of 2022

  • Tankerasi strani i domaci

    Gibsons warns Chinese import drop is draining support from big tankers | TradeWinds
    UK shipbroker notes 2021 saw the country’s first fall in crude imports for 20 years
    www.tradewindsnews.com

    UK shipbroker Gibsons has sounded a warning to tanker owners over Chinese oil trade as crude imports went into reverse for the first time in 20 years.

    Last year saw total imports drop to 513m tonnes, down 5.4% from 2020.

    This was the first fall since 2001.

    The decline in imports occurred despite an increase in refinery runs, with Chinese output up 4.3% year-on-year, reaching 703.5m tonnes, Gibsons said.

    But lower refining runs were seen towards the end of the year, as mobility restrictions and “zero-Covid” policies reduced demand for products and thus refinery throughput, the company added.

    “For the last 20 years, continuous growth in crude imports provided steady support for tankers as other regions fluctuated,” the broker said.

    “In the short term, reduced import crude quotas are likely to drag on freight levels, particularly for VLCCs and suezmaxes,” the company added.

    Gibsons also believes product tankers will ship fewer Chinese export cargoes, hitting Asian rates.

  • SPAN (SPAN d.d.)

    Ako je vec netko dao disclaimer da kao pisac postova je u sukobu interesa jer je zaposlenik, onda je svatko i upoznat s tom cinjenicom i moze tu cinjenicu ukljucit prilikom citanja postova i pravilnije se postaviti u kritickom koristenju informacije. Naravno da zaposlenik mozda ne moze bit objektivan uvijek u svim stvarima isto kao i netko tko gleda s druge pozicije ali opet sta vise razlicitih misljenja doprinose boljim informacijama, sad na svakome je kako ce iste gledat i iz njih zakljucit.

  • DLKV (Dalekovod d.d.)

    Quote from D_artagnan

    Ma ne vjerujem da ce tuzba nesto rjesiti. HR pravosuđe nije sposobno rjesiti ni neke jednostavne i banalne stvari, a kako ce ovaj financijski inzinjering.

    Pa oni ni nemaju pojma sta i kako se ovdje odigralo. A i da netko kuzi, njega se lako podmaze.

    Ne bi se slozio da ne moze nesto rijesiti, ovdje ipak ima dosta ocitijih stvari nego negdje drugdje, uvijek postoji visa instanca koja ce bit neovisnija u zadnju ruku i EU, na kraju ipak najvise ovisi o samom predmetu i odvjetnicima, iako to sve moze potrajati i 10 godina, uvijek se sjetim simensa koji je ipak rijesen u korist dionicara iako je dugo trajalo, mislim sigurno ovo nece kratkotrajno utjecat ali pitam vise kao neki dugorocni uteg za otkljucavanje neke vrijednosti, jer ipak su sad stvari ciste i otvoren je put prema tome, pa je bitno znat kolika realna steta moze bit ukoliko se dobije, da li je moguce da svoje vlasnistvo dobiju u puno vecem omjeru nego sada ili sama steta se drugacije treba regulirat kao isplata ostete itd.

  • Inflacija

    Jedan zanimljiv pogled na sve ovo i zanimljivo stivo

    Russell Napier: «We Are Entering a Time of Financial Repression» | The Market
    Market strategist Russell Napier talks about why he sees structurally rising inflation coming, why central banks are impotent – and what that means for…
    themarket.ch

    Russell Napier caused a stir in the financial world one year ago when he made the call for a regime change: After almost thirty years in which the global economy was characterized by deflation, the market observer thinks that a phase of structurally rising inflation is beginning.

    Just like after World War II, Napier believes that governments will pursue a policy of financial repression in which the interest rate level is deliberately kept below the rate of inflation to get rid of the high levels of debt.

    The Market NZZ spoke with Napier about his inflation call. In this in-depth conversation, which has been redacted for clarity, he explains which developments will shape the coming years, how investors can prepare for them – plus why trying to forecast the velocity of money is akin to juggling an incontinent squid