Posts by gigic23

  • JDPL (Jadroplov d.d.)

    Ova gore navedena trivijalna računica ni na koji način ne uračunava novogradnje. A samo mala opaska i sa takvom dokapitalizacijom i kupnjom cca 7 10 godisnjaka JDPL bi imao stariju flotu od AP i dug veći za cca 20 mil$.

    U svakom slučaju sve se to uz malo truda, znanja, novaca i svekoliki konsenzus brzo riješi. Izrazito sam optimističan :) :thumbup:

  • JDPL (Jadroplov d.d.)

    Uvijek je SVE moguće ali to je razlika između teorije i prakse. Razlika u veličini flote od cca 500 tis tona pr starosti 10 godina implicira po danasnjim cijenama neku razliku od cca 160 - 170 mil$. Obzirom na neke mogućnosti financiranja JDPL bi trebalo dokapitalizirati sa cca 80 - 85 mil$ da bi eventualno došao na pribliznu razinu AP. To je cca 4000000 dionica na 125 - 135 kn.

    Držimo fige.

  • DRY BULK

    Evo nekih razmišljanja i potencijalnih scenarija:

    Oil could surge above $100 in the event of a cold winter - and spark inflation that drives the next macro crisis, BofA says

    Oil could surge above $100 in the event of a cold winter - and spark inflation that drives the next macro crisis, BofA says
    And tightness in the global natural gas market could put more upward pressure on crude as high natgas prices encourage switching to oil.
    markets.businessinsider.com

  • DRY BULK

    Da se lakše odgovori na logično pitanje?

  • DRY BULK


    The Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY) increased by 14% this week and closed at another all-time high.  Sentiment has continued to drastically improve following the sudden Evergrande-related panic that was seen two weeks ago.   As we have continued to discuss in our weekly reports and client updates, actual dry bulk spot market fundamentals have all along remained very strong.  The overall spot supply/demand vessel balance remains tight.

    Quote from gigic23


    The Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY) increased by 14% this week and closed at another all-time high.  Sentiment has continued to drastically improve following the sudden Evergrande-related panic that was seen two weeks ago.   As we have continued to discuss in our weekly reports and client updates, actual dry bulk spot market fundamentals have all along remained very strong.  The overall spot supply/demand vessel balance remains tight.

    Chinese Government This Week Continues to Become More Rational

    • As we discussed in our note on Tuesday morning, by Tuesday we saw China's government finally becoming more rational in its approach to the nation's energy crisis. New more recently is that Bloomberg a few moments ago reported that government officials have ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure supplies for this winter at all costs. According to Bloomberg, the order has come directly from Vice Premier Han Zheng (who supervises the energy sector and industrial production) and power outages will no longer be tolerated. Overall, we remain of our view that previously the government was maintaining a detrimental reluctance to raise thermal coal-derived electricity generation due to coal price and emission concerns, but that this week the government is finally changing. As we discussed on Tuesday, it has been our view that China's coal imports are extremely likely to increase, thermal coal-derived electricity generation is very likely to increase, but that the ban on Australian coal imports is unlikely to end. We continue to have great conviciton and our outlook remains the same.

  • DRY BULK

    Quote from mulac

    CHINA ORDERS TOP ENERGY FIRMS TO SECURE SUPPLIES AT ALL COSTS oops...

    and energy went bid on the headline, same for freight...

    Još kad uskoro Indija krene u nabavu, kod njih je situacija još gora

    Chinese Government This Week Continues to Become More Rational

    • As we discussed in our note on Tuesday morning, by Tuesday we saw China's government finally becoming more rational in its approach to the nation's energy crisis. New more recently is that Bloomberg a few moments ago reported that government officials have ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure supplies for this winter at all costs. According to Bloomberg, the order has come directly from Vice Premier Han Zheng (who supervises the energy sector and industrial production) and power outages will no longer be tolerated. Overall, we remain of our view that previously the government was maintaining a detrimental reluctance to raise thermal coal-derived electricity generation due to coal price and emission concerns, but that this week the government is finally changing. As we discussed on Tuesday, it has been our view that China's coal imports are extremely likely to increase, thermal coal-derived electricity generation is very likely to increase, but that the ban on Australian coal imports is unlikely to end. We continue to have great conviciton and our outlook remains the same.

  • DRY BULK

    Rekao bi da je gledajući P/NAV značajna podcijenjenost CRO dry bulka

  • DRY BULK

    Quote from jasko

    Coal futures surged to a fresh record high of $210 per metric ton in late September, bringing the monthly gain to nearly 20% and the yearly to almost 160%.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
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    Čini se da se i futuresi iron orea radikalno oporavljaju. Ajmo promatrati....

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from Paulie
    Quote from jasko

    Kamsarmax 5 yrs old 32,4M usd , a ATPL naruči novogradnju po 34,2M usd.................. Svaka čast !

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    Polovni brod sada zarađuje novce, a ta novogradnja ih neće zarađivati još 3 godine, otom potom kakve će vozarine tada biti.

    Možda naručene novogradnje zaraďuju u "tišini", izmeďu razlike resale i NB price??? Koliko je ono sada resale za kamsarmaxe 39 mil$?, a contract je objavljen na cca 34,25? Hmmm matematika je jednostavna 39 - 34,25 = ????? × 4 =?????? :)

  • DRY BULK

    Shipping Outlook: Still Managing Disruption & Going Green

    By Stephen Gordon

    24 September 2021

    Six months on from our last Shipping Review & Outlook, an encouraging market recovery has since developed into a range of exceptional market conditions. And stakeholders across maritime are balancing a focus on returning volumes and management of widespread disruption with an increasing urgency to implement regulation and policy around greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

    The encouraging recovery in shipping markets we profiled six months ago has since developed into a remarkably strong year, driven by rebounding volumes and widespread logistical disruption. Reflecting this, our cross-sector ship earnings index, the ClarkSea, has risen sharply, averaging $24,942/day in Jan-Aug (up 62% y-o-y, double the 10 year trend). By September the Index reached $38,944/day, within the top 2% of all values recorded over the last 30 years!

    Demand Recovery & Disruption

    Strong economic recovery from Covid-19 (GDP projection: up 6.0% in 2021 vs -3.2% in 2020) continues to be supported by $16tn of global stimulus (perhaps two-thirds has now been “spent”), the roll-out of vaccines and “pent-up” demand. Against this backdrop, overall seaborne trade has already returned to pre-pandemic levels, with growth of 3.9% (tonne-miles: 4.4%) projected to take volumes to 12bn tonnes by year end. However, the recovery profile varies; container, gas and dry bulk trade have seen the strongest trends whilst oil trade volumes remain 10% down and may not return to pre-Covid levels until late 2022. While risks remain from Covid-19 outbreaks, “cooling” trends in China’s industrial sector and increased taxation, the trade outlook seems broadly healthy: we are projecting 3.2% growth for 2022 (12.4bn t).

    Disruption to global logistics and supply chains is widespread. Congestion at ports is now estimated to be absorbing an additional 4% of the containership fleet (today our index of containership capacity in port is up 13% y-o-y) and 3% of bulker fleet capacity. In the short term at least, continued “bottlenecks” are likely.

    Segment Review

    The container market has seen all time high freight and charter rates (up 300% this year). The short term outlook remains firm: further ahead changes in consumer spending, any easing to congestion and the newbuild backlog (heavier from 2023) may come into play. Bulker earnings have increased to their highest levels for over a decade and our supply / demand projections are positive, even if some congestion may ease. After last winter’s “spike”, LNG has again seen encouraging developments and we expect a strong winter. LPG has been better than expected but more volatile. Car carriers are seeing good rate gains (congestion again a factor); cruise (nearing 50% of pre-Covid levels) and ferry activity is gradually increasing, while offshore oil and gas are seeing slight improvements (wind remains very positive). However with floating storage having unwound and trade down, tanker markets have been very weak and any immediate improvements are likely to be modest (wildcards aside).

    Manageable Supply

    Shipping supply growth remains below trend: the orderbook is limited (9% of fleet capacity; 2008: >50%) and shipyard capacity reduced (111 active “large” yards vs 320 at peak). Newbuild ordering has increased (85m dwt in Jan-Aug, the strongest since 2014), with record containership ordering (3.4m TEU, taking the orderbook to 22% of the fleet). Sharply rising steel prices and reduced berth availability have led to higher newbuild prices (up 20% so far in 2021, more in containers, to the highest levels since 2009). Deliveries have been fairly steady (projected at 86m dwt in 2021, similar to 2020): output is expected to decline in 2022 before recovering in 2023. Recycling has been limited (16m dwt in Jan-Aug): scrap prices have surged (now at ~$600/ldt, up from $400/ldt at start year). Fleet capacity is projected to grow by a moderate 3.1% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022 (to reach 1.5bn GT). The S&P market has also seen record activity (105m dwt ytd is already an annual record). Containership and bulker S&P prices are up an impressive ~120% and ~70% since start year.

    Green & Tech...

    ‘Green and Tech’ are dominating post-Covid planning, with the focus intensifying on reducing the industry’s emissions (2021: ~855mt of CO2). The framework is ramping up: the IMO’s EEXI and CII measures come into force in 2023 (potential impacts: speed, EST retrofitting, recycling?) while the inclusion of shipping in the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme and the bloc’s ‘FuelEU Maritime’ initiative are also set to impact. Debate continues over the policies and technology to drive the long term Fuelling Transition. For the moment, 30% of the orderbook by GT is alternative fuel and 27% of the fleet is ‘eco’. Energy Transition will also impact trade patterns long-term.

    With the recovery from Covid-19 continuing and disruption likely to take time to unwind, market sentiment remains positive. While risks remain and progress may be uneven, the improving economy, limited orderbook in many sectors and the Green Transition seem supportive tailwinds for the moment.

    The author of this feature article is Stephen Gordon. Any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Clarksons group.

  • DRY BULK

    Containerization of Dry Bulk Vessels Update

    • Genco Shipping, long one of the best run dry bulk shipping companies in the world in our opinion, announced this week that it is close to receiving class approval to be able to carry containers aboard its dry bulk vessels. Receiving class approval will allow the company to explore the option of carrying containers in selective situations. Overall, it remains very significant that another blue chip dry bulk owner is exploring the containerization of dry bulk vessels. Dry bulk vessels already remain in great demand worldwide, and the further containerization in our market will only increase vessel demand.

    Chinese Steel / Electricity / Coal Update

    • Data released today shows that daily crude steel output at large and medium-sized mills in China averaged 1.99 million tons from September 11 - September 20. This is down by 3% from the prior ten days and is down year-on-year by 7%. Steel output has continued to decline due to both emissions regulations and also power rationing. As we discussed earlier this month, China's total electricity generation increased year-on-year by only 2% last month as power rationing has continued to intensify. Power rationing will remain in effect, but electricity production is of course still set to stay very strong. China's electricity generation is very likely to set a new record this winter, but year-on-year growth will likely be lower than seen in years past. We continue to view there being a very solid chance that both China and the world at large will experience an energy crisis this winter. All energy assets (including coal) are very likely to be in great demand
    • Also of note is that yet another coal mine accident occurred in China today -- this time in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Three workers very tragically died. Today's accident is sadly only the latest coal mine accident to occur recently, and China's overall coal production is all but certain to remain under some degree of government-directed pressure (due to regional and national inspections and restrictions). These accidents remain extremely tragic but also are helpful for the seaborne coal and dry bulk market as they are causing China's coal production to remain under government-directed pressure. Chinese coal import prospects remain very encouraging.

  • DRY BULK

    Indian and Chinese Power Plant Coal Stockpiles Have Fallen Even Further


    • India’s power plant coal stockpiles have now fallen to 9.6 million tons. This is down week-on-week by 1.7 million tons (-15%), down year-on-year by 25.1 million tons (-72%), and marks the lowest amount seen since October 2018. The stockpiles are now able to meet only 5 days of demand, even though the normal requirement for this time of year is to meet 21 days of demand. The last time that stockpiles were able to meet only 5 days of demand was back in 2017. Overall, India's near-term coal import prospects remain very encouraging. We remain of our view that there is a fair chance that the world could see a global energy crisis this winter, during which time all energy assets (including coal) will be in great demand. Demand for energy is already outpacing supply, and the dry bulk market continues to stand to benefit.
    • Also of note is that coal stockpiles at China's six major coastal power plants now stand at 11.3 million tons. This is down week-on-week by 1 million tons (-8%), down year-on-year by 3.9 million tons (-26%), and matches this year's 11.3 million ton low first seen on August 8th. The stockpiles can meet 15 days of demand. China's near-term coal import prospects remain very encouraging.