Posts by brajakica

  • Tankerasi strani i domaci

    ASC

    gubitak u skladu sa konsenzusom.

    Ardmore Shipping (ASC) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.25 per share in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. This compares to loss of $0.39 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

  • TPNG (tankerska plovidba next generation)

    Quote from havi
    Quote from Marin83

    Pitanje je samo koliko dionica misli prodat i po kojoj cijeni, drugo me ništa ne zanima???

    To cemo vidjet, mozemo samo nagadjat.

    Mozemo nagadati zasto sada ovaj skrbnicki bjezi na cijenovnom dnu i na pocetku bulla na produktasima.

    Jedna od mogucnosti je da moze ovo biti i prebacivanje izmedu racuna za potrebe skupljanja sada kada su USA produktasi u 2022. vec na +20%

    Isto je bilo i na Atpl.

    Ovdje je sada puno manje novaca na raspolaganju.

    10 mil moze pokupiti par jacih igraca.

    Voljela bi da me prodavac demantira, da postavi sve na ask i da svi mozemo kupovati.

    Kada je pbz skrbnicki izlazio sve je pokupljeno u 2-3 dana po 42.

    Ako nece dozvoliti da te dionice mogu svi ravnopravno kupiti to bi moglo znaciti da ne zeli prodati nego stopati.

    Promatrajmo kako ce proci ova teorija zavjere :/ :saint:

    Sa teorijom ili bez nje usa produktasi i BCTI idu dalje. ;)

  • DRY BULK

    National Development and Reform Comm (NDRC) starting

    inqvisition 17th feb for inside trading leading to ore price driven witout fundamentals....big names on the list.

    Inkvizicija ide dalje🤭 ;(

    jednog dana ce shvatiti da dok svijet trazi vise celika,vuglena i ostalog proganjanje trgovaca ne spusta cijene.

    Ako prestanu upotrebljavati sirovine i cijene ce dole bez inkvizicije.

    umjesto da im je prioritet vlastiti gdp rast njima je vaznije da izvoznici sirovina ne zarade vise.

    Po principu neka mi krepaju dvije krave ako ce susjedu tri.

    Vece cijene sirovina se ionako prebacuju na krajnjeg potrosaca.

    Ima drugih koji ne razmisljaju tako ograniceno pa ce proizvoditi umjesto kine.

    Kinezima je postalo predobro kada si mogu priustiti pokusaje ovakvih "debilana".

    Vrijeme je i neizbjezno da proizvodnja krene prema indiji, africi, da se dio vrati u europu i usa.

    BHP on steel: “End-use demand in China is expected to firm over the course of the 2022 calendar year, as easier policy gradually takes hold. As is common at the start of a new five-year plan, infrastructure is expected to be supportive of steel demand.”

    BHP on steel production:”Our starting point for thinking about calendar 22 is that a continuation of China’s policy stance of “zero growth” ought to be the baseline… A 4th year above 1 billion tonnes accordingly seems likely, as the nation’s “plateau phase” extends.”

    diokidina

    Ako nece ugljen iz rusije ici ce iz juzne i sjeverne amerike, ako nece zito iz ukrajine opet ce iz juzne i sjeverne amerike.

    To bi bilo povecanje tonmilja za bulkerase ;)

  • DRY BULK

    Sebe ne prepoznajem u tendencioznom i jednostranom. :/

    Ako netko ipak da voljela bi vidjeti dokaze.

    Vidjela sam mjesecima dugo crnjacenje pojedinaca na vozarinama za kejpove i na neznam cemu sve ne sto nas je uveseljavalo.

    Zar prosjecna visina vozarina u sijecnju i veljaci za pmax smax handy nije sudac koji je presudio dobronamjernim siriteljima "opreza"? :)

    Sada imamo sirenje opreza od WW3.

    Promatrajmo :saint:

  • DRY BULK

    Najnoviji kineski nasilni obracun sa "spekulantima" i cijena ugljena govori vise od CCP slikovnica i bajki.

    Prije toga dijelili su se i kuponi za ogranicavanje kupnje ugljena.

    Zima ide prema kraju i treba sada puniti skladista za ljeto.

    U prosincu su kinezi namjerno sabotirali kupnju ugljena.

    Sada placaju skuplje nego su mogli.

    Mogu oni opet sada nakon zime sabotirati ali samo sebe.

    Bulkeri imaju sta voziti a kada usred ljeta ostanu bez ugljena za klime opet ce bulkerasi dodatno profitirati.

    Sve isto vrijedi i za iron ore.

    Vale je namjerno smanjivao proizvodnju jer kinezi nisu htjeli preuzimati vec su rusili cijenu.

    Kao sto vidimo i na iron ore su napravili odlican posao a sezona nije jos ni pocela :S :saint:

  • Tankerasi strani i domaci

    "Slotovi popunjeni"

    CII

    Sve isto vrijedi i za bulkere, tankerase, kontejnerase ;) :love:

    LNG fleet seriously exposed to CII impact.

    The world fleet of LNG carriers is expanding fast. A record 85 newbuilding contracts agreed at substantially higher prices in 2021 will boost today’s 610 deep sea trade LNG ships and we expect another year of record contracting in 2022. Ten more LNG carriers were ordered in the first few days of January, taking the orderbook up to more than 130 ships, close to 20% of existing fleet capacity. With projects lined up however this number could easily triple soon.

    In these conditions, concerns are raised about regulatory compliance. We are likely to have a shortage of ships that comply with the IMO’s carbon intensity indicator (CII) from 2025 onwards. This could limit charterers’ options, propel rates for compliant ships to new highs, and ultimately put a brake on the world’s decarbonisation process to the extent that this is driven from the coal to gas shift.

    The supply squeeze is inevitable despite the arrival of several newcomers in LNG construction. The handful of specialist builders, including South Korea’s Daewoo, Hyundai, Samsung and China’s Hudong, have been joined recently by Dalian Shipbuilding and Jiangnan Shipbuilding. Despite the newcomers, LNG builders are full until 2025 for a sector which historically presented a capacity of approximately 30 units a year.

    Meanwhile LNG trade is predicted to grow by 250 million tonnes per annum, until 2030, according to MSI and IGU forecasts putting even more pressure on the shipbuilding sector.

    Older technology steamers

    Here are the challenges to today’s existing fleet. There are about 250 elderly steam turbine vessels which typically have a daily boil-off rate (BOR) of about 0.15% of cargo. These ships were designed to use ‘Boil-Off’ for propulsion. In this manner their propulsion arrangements did not look on efficiency but to the productive consumption of liquid turning into gas. For this reason, boilers coupled with steam turbines seemed like a good match despite its efficiency being marginally over 30%, or even lower when away from the optimum operating point like in ‘slow steaming’ conditions.

    The next stage of LNG ship design moved from steamers to four-stroke, dual- or tri-fuel diesel-electric propulsion systems, using types of marine fuels or LNG. These vessels, with lower BORs of around 0.1%, have smaller engines and better efficiency of more than 40%. There are about 150 of these ships in the fleet today.

    The latest generation of two-stroke LNG vessels have BORs as low as 0.07%. Their efficiency is almost or marginally below 50% and these vessels are equipped with reliquefaction plants on board to convert any excess boil-off back into liquid cargo.

    So, during a slow canal transit, for example, or port operations when propulsion power is not required, operators of such vessels can conserve cargo and its value. There are about 210 of these ships in operation today, making up the balance of the fleet.

    CII fleet impact

    The first two ship categories, well over half of the existing fleet, are unlikely to achieve CII ratings of A, B, or C when they are gauged next year. This means that ships rated E will have to undergo carbon-efficiency improvements immediately (a subject which I will cover in my next blog) and owners of D-rated vessels will have to ensure that ships become more fuel efficient within the three following years.

    However, since CII assessments will become progressively stricter from 2027 until the end of the decade, ships which are adapted to meet CII requirements by 2024/5 may subsequently fall into categories D and E later in the decade. Owners of these older vessels will then be faced with the decision over whether to invest in expensive sustainability measures, sell them for conversion to floating LNG plants, or dispose of them for recycling.

    So, on one hand, there is limited scope to raise supply to meet the growing demand for seaborne LNG because shipbuilders have no extra capacity. On the other, you have a majority of ships in the fleet which are unlikely to meet CII requirements from 2025 onwards, in what could resemble to a perfect storm!

    Decarbonisation delay

    Ultimately, in a macro context, this has serious implications. The most important aspect of global decarbonisation is to stop the use of coal in power generation. Key economies such as China and India still rely heavily on this worst type of carbon-generating energy source.

    LNG offers the best available energy source to replace coal and achieve a carbon reduction of about 50% in the process. But if there is insufficient shipping capacity, or the price is too high, consumers will not switch from coal to gas and ultimately the global decarbonisation process will be set back.

    Clearly, no-one wants this to happen. However, this means that the decision on managing the application of CII to the existing LNG fleet needs to be addressed in a sensitive and substantiated manner, radical changes could have the exact opposite effect.

  • Tankerasi strani i domaci

    Quote from brajakica

    Demand je jak ali tek treba ubrzati njegov rast u postkorona vremenu.

    Proizvodnja nafte ce rasti a tankere nece nitko proizvesti jos godinama jer je orderbook 30y low a slotovi su popunjeni.

    Sapienti sat :saint:

    U 2022.ce biti oko +3% supply produktasa.

    koliko ce vise rasti demand?

    Razlika=povecanje vozarina

    U prosincu BCTI 850 kao potvrda da se blizi inflection point.

    Promatrajmo rat izmedu madijanja,uroka i novog uzleta vozarina,rasta stranih produktasa koji su na +20% ;( :saint:

  • Utjecaj i posljedice ratova na tržišta kapitala

    Kaze tovarish Putin da "ne nemjerava napasti ukrajinu vec da samo odgovara na agresivnu nato politiku."

    To je i vecina nas zakljucila da blefira kako bi izvukao za sebe sto bolji diplomatski dogovor.

    Vrijeme je da se sjedne za stol i da se to dogovori i potpise.

    Prodavaci dionica mogu sada kupovati nazad sto su prodali pa da svi zajedno idemo dalje :saint:

  • Tankerasi strani i domaci

    Iran vec trosi $$$ racunajuci da ce sporazum biti postignut?

    IRAN BOOSTS PROJECTED OIL EXPORTS BY 27% IN DRAFT BUDGET

    IRAN INCREASED EXPECTATIONS FOR REVENUE FROM OIL EXPORTS BY ALMOST A THIRD IN THE DRAFT BUDGET FOR THE NEXT IRANIAN FISCAL YEAR, ACCORDING TO THE SEMI-OFFICIAL TASNIM NEWS AGENCY.