Older refineries in particular in Europe but also in other areas such Australia/New Zealand and the US have been suffering from poor margins and were destined for closure due to the planned ramp-up in capacity from more modern refineries in the Middle East and Asia. Covid-19 has accelerated this process with announcements of ~1.9 mbpd of confirmed capacity closures/conversions, of which ~60% is expected to have occurred in FY’21.

The majority of these announcements have been driven by the oil majors rationalising their refining footprint across the world. In fact, ~40% of confirmed capacity closures/conversions is expected to occur in the US, ~11% in Europe and ~15% in Australia/New Zealand.

An additional ~0.6 mbpd of capacity closures is currently under assessment, of which ~45% is expected to occur in Europe and ~55% in Australia/New Zealand.

According to the IEA, over the next few years, Europe and all the regions of the southern hemisphere are expected to remain reliant on product imports from the United States, Russia, the Middle East and China.

The US rig count has been slowly but surely rising, driving a gradual increase in US oil output, which is expected to reach 12.6 mbd by the end of ‘22 and 13.3 mbd by the end of ‘23, well above the pre-pandemic highs.

Kud plovi ovaj brod

Quote from karlo

Je li ima netko ovdje na forumu da je mlađi od 30 ili da je na račun nečeg drugog otvario pravo povrat poreza?

Nije mi još uvijek došla nikakva obavijest (na egrađani/poštom) niti uplata povrata poreza?

Zadnje dvije godine mi je uvijek došlo u svibnju, obavijest i uplata poreza...

Radi se samo o porezu na dividende. Drugih poreza nisam imao...

Je li i drugima kasne ili?

Ako si imao samo porez na dividendu zasto bi ti onda dosao povrat poreza ?

i dalje ne tako lijepe brojke u rusiji, s tim da je losije u odnosu na predhodni mjesec, pitanje je koliko je adpl dovoljno da barem radi s nulom tamo.

In May 2022, sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia decreased by 83.5% compared to May 2021

or by 123 110 sold units and amounted to 24 268 cars according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee

(AEB AMC

https://aebrus.ru/upload/iblock/57c/ENG-Car-Sales-in-May-2022.pdf

Hocemo li gledati ponavljanje ovog scenarija ?

Jedan zanimljiv graf na koji sam naisao, jel moguce da smo tek u retestu ovog break-a ?

Gledam danas ovaj podatak sta je izasa, ne da ekonomija stoji dobro nego po ovome ne vidim da ce se tako brzo ohladit kada ima toliko potraznje za radnicima

U svakom slucaju od same PSN pevex je plodno tlo za razlicite interesne skupine koje pokusavaju ostvarit kontrolu nad drustvom da bi mogli upravljat, a ostale marginalizirat, ne tako davno jurica je bio na jednoj strani skupine dok su mali dionicari bili na drugoj i borili se za ostvarit svoja prava, ali gle cuda i jurica se sad nasao na istoj strani s malim dionicarima, kazu da se sve vraca, nisam ocekivao da ce to biti tako brzo. Ocito su tu odvija nesto u pozadini s tim jamstima, jurica sigurno nesto zna kad toliko oce CnB ?

Quote from Manu

A u nastupnim izjavama tvrdio je da se brodovi ne kupuju na vrhuncu ciklusa nego na njegovom dnu. Pa je otkazao bulkerske novogradnje jer su kao ugovorene na vrhuncu ciklusa iako su bile 10m usd jeftinije nego danas. Pa mu izmaknu produkti jer nisu bili dovoljno odlučni a onda se tržište naglo probudilo pa ih je spremnija konkurencija pokupila. I onda ulovi lpg baš na samom špicu.

Ima deda trejderskog duha zna i on hvatati cijenu kad propusti priliku par puta pa ga sad hvata FOMO, ja sam naucio da se nesto kupuje na pocetku trenda i onda jase na tom trendu, a to su realno onda bili bulkovi koje je vec imao uparkirane i onda bi mogao taman prodati ova dva najstarija i rijesit na neko virijeme potrebe za obnovom i osnazit bilancu, a i realno za svaki novi segment treba neko novo znanje u ljudstvu, a imat samo jedan brod u nekom segmentu je glupo, pa sad radi izlete s upitnim konacnim rezultatom iman osjecaj da samo skace sa grane na granu kako mu sta pobigne isto kao i trejderi, prednosti mu je sta ima veze i kontakte za brze realizirat nesto.

Narudzbe vec lagano prema 2025 godini

June 1, 2022,

Dry bulk shipping company Safe Bulkers has entered into an agreement for the acquisition of two energy-efficient Kamsarmax class vessels as part of its fleet renewal strategy.

The company has ordered two 82,500 dwt dry bulk newbuilds from an undisclosed Chinese shipyard, scheduled for delivery within August 2024 and January 2025.

The vessels are designed to meet the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) Phase 3, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and NOx Tier III regulations.

Jedan dio komentara SB-a na pristiglu novogradnju nedavno isto kamsarmax

Polys Hajioannou

Yes. Look, I believe that the modern shipping company has to be in the game, active around all cycles and have competitive vessels, modern vessels and be able compete in the market. For example, we recently took delivery of our Phase III, Tier 3 newbuild last month, which we fixed a good $7,000 or $8,000 above the spot market at the time of modern Kamsarmaxes. So the ship achieved $35,900 for a -- 2 laden leg's trip of a round duration of 4 months, whilst at the time that modern Kamsarmaxes were earning $28,000 a day. Reason being that is a very economic ship, burning very low amount of fuel per day.

Quote from mariv002

sta je problem s NAT-o= da ga market ovako kaznjava

Imaju suezmaxe koje vozarine nisu bas za pohvalit se ocito crude segment nije jos toliko potentan kao ovaj clean segment, ispada da kao i na drybulku i na tankerima bolje prolaze manji brodovi

During April, there has been an increase of about 43% year-on-year of bulk carrier tonnage arriving in the ports of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp to discharge cargoes. The main driver of this trend has been the extra coal imports into Europe.

The 24.1 million tons in April is the highest level seen for the last five years and this has created congestion and delays. So over all the above combined with online supply chain issues which are rail and tracking constraints, have created delays in loading discharge ports, with the inevitable consequence of making voyage durations longer across all vessel sizes and supply squeeze is therefore starting to develop.

Concerning coal, the European Union decided in April to phase out imports of coal from Russia by mid-August. As coal can be readily imported from other sources, this embargo should have no significant impact on Eurozone economies. And if anything will prove positive for the bulk carrier vessels performing this trade from further away loading ports, leading to increased ton-mile demand for coal shipments

Ima li jos tko da je ostao u Panl-u ili samo ja, jucer je lijepi rast bio 11%, graf kaze savrsen cup & handle sa odgovarajucim volumenom

Pa kad su oni padali zadnjih 20 tak dana koliko vec i kad atpl nije uopce pala nego se drzala oko vrhunca onda nam je odgovaralo :).Pomalo atpl vozi neki svoj voz koji nije bas skroz sinkroniziran s vanjskim voznim redom, a svakim danom s lovom na racunu vozni red u suprotnom smijeru je sve ugodniji

FRANKFURT – The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates in July and September, President Christine Lagarde said in a blog post published Monday.

This is Lagarde’s first explicit call for two interest rate hikes in quick succession, although several her colleagues on the ECB's Governing Council have previously suggested as much.

“I expect net purchases under the [bond buy program] to end very early in the third quarter,” Lagarde wrote, confirming the end of the ECB's quantitative easing program. “This would allow us a rate lift-off at our meeting in July, in line with our forward guidance. Based on the current outlook, we are likely to be in a position to exit negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter.”

To lift interest rates, currently at minus 0.5 percent, into positive territory by the end of the third quarter requires two 25 basis point hikes between now and then.

Lagarde's comments come after finance ministers and central bankers of the G7 economic powerhouses on Friday concluded their meeting with a pledge to fight mounting inflation pressures.

“The next stage of normalization would need to be guided by the evolution of the medium-term inflation outlook,” Lagarde wrote. “If we see inflation stabilizing at 2 percent over the medium term, a progressive further normalization of interest rates towards the neutral rate will be appropriate. But the pace and overall scale of the adjustment cannot be determined ex ante.”

Koja je bila cijena onih JDPL otkazanih novogradnji ultramaxa ?

Greek bulker owner Globus Maritime will be adding two more fuel-efficient ultramax newbuilds to its fleet, following the company’s debut order earlier this month.

The Nasdaq-listed firm has booked a pair of 64,000 dwt ships at Cosco KHI Ship Engineering in China for around $70.3m. The first vessel is scheduled to deliver in the third quarter of 2024, while the second one should arrive in the fourth quarter of the same year.

Last week Chinese iron ore port inventories registered their sharpest decline of the past 12 months. This is with rebar production well off last year levels.

Despite low imports, capesize rates are squeezing higher at ~$35k per day. What happens when imports increase further?

Moglo bi se reci da je preokret neki jako blizu

The S&P 500 dropped 3% this week, its 7th consecutive weekly decline. This is longest weekly down streak since 2001 which fell 8 straight weeks (and is tied w/ 1970 for the record). Here's a look at what happened following the longest down streaks in history...

Prica o dugu je skroz promasena nije uopce bitna velicina duga to je skroz pogresan pristup nego je bitna amortizacija tog duga, nije isto imat amortizaciju duga 20 godina ili 10 godina jer da se radi o istim kompanijama sa brodovima starim 2 godine ili 12 godina, a o istoj velicini duga sama otplata tj amortizacija tog duga je drasticno razlicita i pri tome i sami CF je skroz razlicit i sam rizik je dosta manji za kompaniju ciji su brodovi dosta mladji, zasto trziste toliko nagradjuje GOGL koji ima veci dug po brodu nego neke druge kompanije samo iz razloga jer ima brodove stare samo 6 godina pri cemu je onda ta amortizacija tog duga skroz drugacija i capex je isto skroz drugaciji jer su potrebe za ulaganjem drugaciji, uostalom i novi brod je u krizi puno lakse iznajmiti i za puno bolju lovu nego stariji brod, jer u krizi kada je stednja bitna puno vise se gleda trosak tog broda koji onda ima puno bolju potraznju u odnosu na stari brod i prije ce za njega ugovoriti neki duzi TC s boljom vozarinom i njihova cijena na SH trzistu isto manje pada, a s obzirom i na popunjenost brodogradilista pitanje je kako bi se u trenutcima krize ponasala cijena brodova starih brodova do 5 godina i starijih brodova, vjerujem da bi bila drasticna razlika u ponasanju pada cijene, zato i ovi stari brodovi najvise dobiju na cijeni kada ovako trziste skoci isto tako ako trzsite i padne oni najvise nastradaju. NAV je jako bitan ali bitna je i starost tih brodova kod uzimanja u obzir CF