Morgan Stanley out with new steel production forecasts for China. Like most others, the continued ramp up has confounded its analysts. Last two legs higher followed sharp slowdowns in economic activity (09, 15). Perhaps the 2020 surge has more fuel yet?                                                                                     

In a separate statement, Vale said it remained confident of achieving its previously thwarted goal of 400 million tonnes per annum iron ore fines capacity by the end of 2022. https://www.mining-journal.com/bulks/news/140…-output-in-2020 "This new super-cycle would be driven by China's growing iron ore demand and with no major new mines planned for the foreseeable future, [and] a capped global supply." https://www.mining-journal.com/bulks/news/140…-cycle%E2%80%99

Now we have to get shipping!

Only 36% of U.S. corn sold for export in 2020/21 has been shipped as of Jan. 28, by far lowest since at least 2005. Next lowest are ~43% in 2018 and ~44% in 2014.

Don't forget about new-crop soybeans! Some 4.25 mln tonnes (156 mln bu) of beans have been sold for export in 2021/22 as of Jan. 28, a 10-year high for the date.

U.S. exporters had sold 87% of USDA's full-year 2020/21 corn export forecast as of Jan. 28. Sticks out like a sore thumb versus most prior years, esp. '19 & '20 (52%, 50%).

Soybeans were 97% sold for 2020/21 by Jan. 28, above normal but not excessively so like corn.

Congestion related to cold weather and coal shortage in China supported counter–seasonal strength in freight rates

Quote from jasko

Dry bulk orderbook at lows not seen since the historic bull run of 2003 to 2008 https://splash247.com/dry-bulk-order…f-2003-to-2008/

Nekad bi na ovakvu vijest atpl skočila 10% a danas ništa. Uporno netko koči, ali kad krene bit će drž gaće.

Baltic Dry Index unchanged at 1,327
Capesize -0.23% to $12,772
Panamax +0.41% to $13,322
Supramax 58k tons -0.18% to $12,531
Handysize +0.47% to $10,847

Quote from 5. Element

Quote from jasko

VALE estimates 2021 production capacity at 350m tonnes

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Ovo je prejako za Cape.

A podrzava i ostale s tim sto ce se oni manje gurati u ugljen.

U 2022. godini očekuju 400m tona.

dokupio 99 kom ATPL po 180

VALE estimates 2021 production capacity at 350m tonnes

China's appetite for barley sucks in French and Canadian new crop https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china…op-2021-02-03-0

A strong week in terms of timecharter fixtures for the smaller sizes, with healthy activity in the pacific, focused around the 6-month mark.

Recent Surge In Indonesian Coal Exports To China

Baltic Dry Index Falls 3.84% to 1,327
Capesize -8.9% to $12,802
Panamax -0.08% to $13,268
Supramax 58k tons -0.68% to $12,553
Handysize +0.53% to $10,796

BDI - 3,8% / 1327 https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shippi…r-siden-for-jul

Dry bulk orderbook at lows not seen since the historic bull run of 2003 to 2008 https://splash247.com/dry-bulk-order…f-2003-to-2008/

Freight futures am update Capesize up ~7%
Panamax up ~3%

Disagreement on ship prices stalls newbuilding market https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1135652/Disa…building-market

Cape -8,9% / 12.802 usd