Posts by jasko

The Baltic Exchange Handysize Index (BHSI) was formally launched in 2007 and is a measure of the strength of spot freight earnings for smaller dry bulk vessels, currently based on a standard 38,000 dwt bulk carrier (since 2 Jan 2020). https://www.pacificbasin.com/en/ir/industry.php ............ With the beginning of 2020, the below mentioned routes and vessel sizes have been replaced. https://www.bmti-report.com/baltic-handysize-index-bhsi/

Quote from migra

Brazil's largest iron ore miner - Vale has started the commissioning process to ramp up the production capacity at Timbopeba mining site, a part of the Mariana Complex, by adding 7 mn t pa to its current capacity. After the commissioning, the mines' total capacity would reach 12 mn t pa. The commissioning process is expected to last 2 months. The resumption of Timbopeba capacity is another step in stabilizing iron ore production and on the way to resume 400 mn t pa production capacity by the end of CY '22.

Vale ended 2020 with 322 Mt of production capacity and expects to achieve 350 Mt capacity by the end of 2021.

“Vale remains confident to achieve 400 Mtpy capacity by the end of 2022,”

Dry bulk’s year to date

Rates for Capesizes — bulkers with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons (DWT) — briefly shot up to 10-year highs in January. Since then, smaller bulker classes have outperformed. Clarksons reported Friday that Supramaxes (45,000- to 60,000-DWT bulkers) were earning an average of $22,600 per day. That’s the highest rate for Supramaxes since 2010.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal, “Dry bulk equities are the best-performing sector year-to-date, up 58% on average, and are pricing in 1.09 times NAV on average. Investors should not look too closely at the dry bulk NAVs, however, as vessel values are significantly lagging time-charter rates, which are at a 10-year high. Based on vessel values seen in prior periods when freight rates were at the same level, dry bulk NAVs could roughly double.”

Since Jan. 1, shares of Seanergy (NASDAQ: SHIP) are up 133%, Safe Bulkers (NYSE: SB) 120%, Eagle Bulk (NASDAQ: EGLE) 106%, Star Bulk (NASDAQ: SBLK) 81%, Genco (NYSE: GNK) 58% and Golden Ocean (NASDAQ: GOGL) 41%. https://www.freightwaves.com/news/full-stea…shipping-stocks

Panamax 4 Time Charter Average

Spot 18842

MTD 18440

YTD. 15540

Supramax 10 Time Charter Average

Spot 22844

MTD 21462

YTD. 15112

Handysize 7 Time Charter Average

Spot 23096

MTD 20860

YTD. 14866

Freight futures am update
Capesize flat
Panamax up ~4%

Quote from jasko

Supramax 22189

Support....... Resistance

S1 19995....,, R1 22375

S2 19337....,, R2 23749

S3 18445...... R3 25706

Supramax 22844

Support........ Resistance

S1 21200...... R1 22375

S2 20800...... R2 23749

S3 19995...... R3 25706

Baltic Dry-indeksen - 0,5 prosent til 1.960 poeng, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.

• Capesize - 3,5 prosent til 16.741 dollar pr. dag.
• Panamax + 1,2 prosent til 18.842 dollar pr. dag.
• Handysize + 2,1 prosent til 21.130 dollar pr. dag.
• Supramax + 1,3 prosent til 22.844 dollar pr. dag.

Floki je počeo prodavati koei. Mislim da bi ga uskoro mogli vidjeti u brodarima. Živi bili, pa vidjeli......

Tanker Market Earnings https://www.nat.bm/wp-content/upl…ates-210312.pdf

Kamsarmax Lady Giovi (2007, JP) was floated on Tuesday w a $13.5-14m ask. A lot of interest, now said to have been sold at ~$16m. Just incredible! ~26% above our revised asset prices from yesterday...

Smax

Mar 22000

Apr. 22150

May 19850

Q2.. 19825

On average, a 10% increase in asset prices leads to a 20% increase in NAVs.

The positive sentiment in Dry Bulk shipping is seemingly relentless, in-line with our longstanding view given the lowest orderbook on record and strong demand growth.

After a myriad of reported S&Ps in February at higher levels, we revised our dry bulk asset prices up in our Shipping Weekly 7/2021. Since then, the S&P market has been relatively quiet, while one-year timecharter rates have risen significantly.

As we highlighted in our Dry Bulk Shipping Webinar 16 February, the relationship between 1y TCs and asset values is statistical significant and could at mid-February levels support asset prices 18-29% higher. With the recent surge in 1y TCs, the similar range vs mid-February would be 20-53%.

Given the continued strength of 1y TCs, it thus comes as no surprise that the bid/ask spread for S&Ps has once again narrowed with bids approaching asks. Thus, we have so far in March seen S&P activity increase at a higher level vs February transactions. We believe these latest transactions represents a new equilibrium and hence raises our generic dry bulk valuation assessments by 0-25% depending on vessel class and vintage:

On this basis, our dry bulk asset price index is up a staggering 19% q/q, and we forecast another 39% upside over the next two years.

We raise our target prices on all our covered dry bulk companies in light of our revised asset prices and positive impact on NAVs. The biggest increase is undoubtedly on Eagle Bulk (TP +52%) as we have also revised our scrubber premium forecast in light of the recent surge in VLSFO prices. We upgrade Eagle Bulk to HOLD, and not BUY, given the share’s recent outperformance vs peers. We use the same valuation matrix for all our covered companies.

On average, a 10% increase in asset prices leads to a 20% increase in NAVs. Please see column epsilon in the peer table for exact elasticity per company:

Recent relevant research:

8 Mar: Shipping Weekly 10/2021

16 Feb: Dry Bulk Shipping Webinar 16 February

31 Jan: Shipping Report 2021

Baltic Dry Index Falls 0.51% to 1,970 in London
Capesize -3.0% to $17,353
Panamax -0.03% to $18,620
Supramax 58k tons +1.66% to $22,557
Handysize +3.3% to $20,691

Capesize Index $17353 (-$536)

Demand Improves in the Demolition Market https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/demand-improve…olition-market/

• Panamax 4 Time Charter Average Spot 18626
  MTD-18367
  YTD- 15407
  
  Supramax 10 Time Charter Average Spot 22189
  MTD-21153
  YTD- 14795
  
  

Weekly Dry Time Charter Estimates

This week the capes finally played catch-up with the rest of the market with rates up sharply across both basins for six months and one-year.

Plenty of kamsarmax/panamax timecharter activity reported this week in the pacific, although weaker sentiment in the Atlantic lead to a softening of rates.

The Supramax period sector continued to power ahead and rates surged. There has been plenty of demand in the pacific with an active short-term timecharter market. The average rate for a supramax for six months is currently estimated as $19,875/pdpr.

refinery closures / import terminal conversions                                                                                                                                      

Quote from Neo

europa sigurno nije najveci potrošac..koliko vidim scrap cijene snazno narasle...bit ce rezanja starih tankera..takodjer imam dionice Tpng al i poprilican cash za novu kupovinu trostruke kolicine..iako sam sve vise sigurniji da to mogu samo sanjati da cu ugrabiti puno jeftinije...promrti premizerni..ljudi ne daju ni po 40kn, a kamoli ce po 36kn.

uvoznik kolega uvoznik, ne potrošač

MR - 4,29% 3547 usd / day