Posts by gigic23

  • DRY BULK

    Quote from gigic23

    Malo opet o kontejnerašima i promjeni vrijednosti SH brodova u razdoblju od kolovoza 2020 do lipnja 2021. Tri razlicite veličine brodova a koje cca odgovaraju handyima, suprama i panamaxima iz dry bulka po DWT veličini. 10 godišnjaci i 15 godišnjaci u sve 3 kategorije.

    Zaista zanimljivo. Znači u kolovozu 2020 godine je 6 takvih brodova po 1 iz svake skupine vrijedilo ukupno 62,50 mil$, danas nakon 10 mjeseci vrijedi 269,00 mil$ uz ukupni porast od 206,50%. Realno tako izabrana hipotetska flota samo ilustrativno pokazuje kakve reperkusije imaju promjene asseta na bilance shipping kompanija. Naravno to je svjetsko okruženje i dinamika i promjena je brutalna. I na kraju najnoviji ugovori kod konteneraša već idu na periode od 36 mjeseci sa pr vozarinama za cijeli period iznad 40.000$, što ukazuje na neupitnu održivost ponude potražnje do 2024 godine. Čini se da uz specifičnosti sektora dry bulk ima fazni pomak od cca 9 mjeseci.

    Samo ispravka, uz ukupni porast od 206,50 mil$, odnosno 330,4%, index rasta 430,4.

  • DRY BULK

    Malo opet o kontejnerašima i promjeni vrijednosti SH brodova u razdoblju od kolovoza 2020 do lipnja 2021. Tri razlicite veličine brodova a koje cca odgovaraju handyima, suprama i panamaxima iz dry bulka po DWT veličini. 10 godišnjaci i 15 godišnjaci u sve 3 kategorije.

    Zaista zanimljivo. Znači u kolovozu 2020 godine je 6 takvih brodova po 1 iz svake skupine vrijedilo ukupno 62,50 mil$, danas nakon 10 mjeseci vrijedi 269,00 mil$ uz ukupni porast od 206,50%. Realno tako izabrana hipotetska flota samo ilustrativno pokazuje kakve reperkusije imaju promjene asseta na bilance shipping kompanija. Naravno to je svjetsko okruženje i dinamika i promjena je brutalna. I na kraju najnoviji ugovori kod konteneraša već idu na periode od 36 mjeseci sa pr vozarinama za cijeli period iznad 40.000$, što ukazuje na neupitnu održivost ponude potražnje do 2024 godine. Čini se da uz specifičnosti sektora dry bulk ima fazni pomak od cca 9 mjeseci.

  • DRY BULK

    Bulkers, bulkers, bulkers...buyers continue to step up and prices and charter rates remain firm. This week there was an increase in activity in the Kamsarmax and Panamax segments. The Tess 82 BWTS fitted M/V "PEAK LIBERTY" / "PEAK PE GASUS (82,000 DWT/Built 2015 & 2013 at Tsuneishi in Japan) have now been reported sold for $26.75 mill. and $24.75 mill. which is higher than recent reports. The M/V "KAGARA" (78,129 DWT/Built 2013 at Shin Kurushima in Japan -- BWTS fitted) has been sold f or $22 mill. basis delivery in JulyAugust. Compared with the end April sale of the sister M/V "NORD SIRIUS" (78,095 DWT/Built 2012 at Shin Kurushima in Japan BWTS fitted, SS/DD due 11/2022) at region $19.7 mill.

  • DRY BULK

    Power Loads in Southern China Set Records During Three Consecutive Days This Week

    • As we first discussed back in a client note published on April 14th, government warnings of a possible summer shortage in China for both coal and electricity had already begun months ago -- and then later towards the end of April, the National Development and Reform Commission started directing customs authorities to release more coal import quotas in preparation for robust consumption this summer. As we also have been continuing to discuss in subsequent updates, daily electricity consumption and production records have been periodically occurring in various regions in China. New today is that China Southern Power Grid has reported power loads set record highs for three consecutive days this week during June 16th, 17th, and 18th.
    • Overall, we remain of our view that China's coal imports will find significant strength this summer. It remains very encouraging that electricity demand and consumption have been so strong even as the summer has not yet even begun. Also remaining helpful is that domestic coal production remains under government-mandated pressure due to coal mine accidents and deaths that have continued to plague China in recent months. On Wednesday, we reported the latest accident which saw 7 coal miners trapped after a roof collapsed at the Taiye Coal Mine. Fortunately these miners have all been rescued -- but coal mine inspections, restrictions, and some closures have all intensified. While very tragic, accidents and deaths are continuing to ensure the prioritization of safety, inspections, and restrictions over coal production growth. This remains extremely helpful for the dry bulk shipping market and seaborne coal import market, as China's coal-derived electricity generation is poised to continue to far outpace domestic coal production.

    have been chartered-out for 35 – 36 months at an average rate of approximately $41,723 net per day. The charters have the following structure: The first year is chartered-out at $54,313 net per day, the second year at $45,425 net per day and the remaining 11 months of the minimum period at $23,972 net per day. have been chartered-out for 35 – 36 months at an average rate of approximately $41,723 net per day. The charters have the following structure: The first year is chartered-out at $54,313 net per day, the second year at $45,425 net per day and the remaining 11 months of the minimum period at $23,972 net per day.

  • DRY BULK

    Malo o "recesiji" u post corona oporavku i najboljem mogućem hedgu eventualne tihe i stvarne inflacije, kao i kineskim igrama ( punih - praznih skladišta), dovoljno govore futuresi za iron ore i coal , uključivo povijesne grafove iz kojih je sve jasno:). Da li je oporavak realnog sektora tek počeo, pitanje je na koje će odgovoriti zdrav razum :thumbup:

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from hugh
    Quote from gigic23

    Evo nalo usporedne povijesne statistike za indexe i vozarine, period od 16 - 28.07.2019 godine i cijena dionice ATPL u istom periodu.

    Prava divota......znači cijena dionice bila je gotovo identična današnjoj u tom periodu ali uz jednu "malu" razliku trenutno.....danas je index za panamaxe 75% veći nego tada a za supre impresivnih 170% veči nego tada........

    nekak mi se čini da po pitanju cijene dionice imamo još puno, puno žganaca za papati kako bi porasli i nebi bili tako kržljavi.....

    Evo još jedan period 15 -29.10.2019.

  • DRY BULK

    China's Industrial Production Growth Remains Strong; Steel Production Has Set an All-Time High

    • Data released today shows China's industrial production in May rose year-on-year by 8.8%. We have seen reports stating this is disappointing (growth in April came in at 9.8%), but overall we do not find it disappointing. Crude steel production totaled a record 99.5 million tons and is up year-on-year by 8%. Overall, China's industrial sector continues to fare quite well.

    On China, Bloomberg, and Bullish/Bearish Signal

    • Brief note on Bloomberg reporting today that China has "ordered state firms to curb overseas commodities exposure". This refers to financial positions in overseas commodity derivative markets (and does not at all refer to imports and hard assets). Overall, the Chinese government is continuing to work to rein in commodity prices, but that nation's actual demand for commodities remains strong and in our view will stay strong.
    • Also of note is it has been widely reported that the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration will soon release some state stockpiles of metals including copper, aluminum and zinc into the domestic market. This is a development not seen in two years. We have seen some pundits claim that this is a bearish signal, but instead we view it as a bullish signal. By all accounts, China's demand for commodities this year has been robust (and various segments of industrial production have continued to set new records). Demand has been so strong that some reserves will now be sold into the domestic market. The strategic reserves will not come close to being fully unwound, though, and China's actual demand for imports is likely to remain very strong.
    • As we have continued to examine in our Weekly China Reports and Weekly Dry Bulk Reports in recent weeks, the most significant actual change that we expect for the near term is that China's coal imports will turn soon and experience significant strength. As we also discussed most recently in the client update we published earlier today, the last three months have seen China's coal-derived electricity generation grow year-on-year by 15% while coal production has grown year-on-year by only 1%. China's coal production growth remains poised to stay under government-mandated pressure due to regional and national coal mine inspections and safety restrictions following several coal mine accidents and deaths. New today is that yet another coal mine accident has occurred -- and the nation's coal production growth is all but guaranteed to stay weak. At the same time, electricity production and consumption have already been setting records across various parts of China, and summer has not yet even begun. More records will continue to be set.

    China's Coal-Derived Electricity Generation Continues to Exceed Coal Production; Yet Another Coal Mine Accident

    • Data released today shows China's coal production totaled 326.3 million tons in May. This is up by 2% from a year ago. Overall, it is extremely bullish for the seaborne coal and dry bulk shipping markets that China's coal-derived electricity generation growth has continued to fare much better than coal production growth. Coal-derived electricity generation in May totaled 450.7 billion kilowatt hours. This is up year-on-year by 6%. Coal-derived electricity generation during the last three months has increased year-on-year by 15%. In comparison, coal production during the last three months has increased year-on-year by only 1%. Also of note is that overall electricity production rose year-on-year by 9% and hydropower production rose year-on-year by 11%. A full breakdown of electricity production by source will be discussed in our upcoming Weekly Dry Bulk Report.
    • As we have been continuing to stress in our work, China's coal production growth has been poised to remain under government-mandated pressure due to regional and national coal mine inspections and safety restrictions following a series of tragic coal mine accidents and deaths. New today, though, is that yet another coal mine accident occurred, this time in Shanxi province. At present, 7 coal miners are trapped after a roof collapsed at the Taiye Coal Mine. Accidents like these are becoming even more of an embarrassment to the Chinese government and strict inspections and safety restrictions will continue during the upcoming months. While very tragic, the coal mine accidents and deaths are occurring at the best time for the dry bulk market as peak summer electricity demand season is about to begin. Electricity production and consumption has already been setting records across various parts of China in recent days, and more records will continue to be set. At the same time, domestic coal production growth will remain limited and we are confident Chinese coal imports will experience a large increase in upcoming weeks.

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from 5. Element

    Kolega gigic, spekulira se jer od same kompanije nema ni cau ni mijau.

    Ako netko bude isao na skupstinu trebao bi im tamo reci da bi bilo dobro za sve dionicare, pa i za kompaniju samu, da krene putem transparentnosti. Veci povrat se dobije na tome nego na muljarenju.

    Govorim kao zainteresirani dionicar.

    Dragi kolega, prje bi rekao da ovo tržište nije odraslo za transpqrentnost nivoa Wall streeta, a ponajmanje u ovoj branši. Inače smatrqm da je jako poželjno i afirmativno i za ZSE i za izlistqne kompanije da što više dionicara shvqti kako je jedna stvar biti aktivni trader, a savim druga biti kostruktivqn i afirmativan dioničar.

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Dragi forumaši ni na koji način nema potrebe za širenjem drukerske atmosfere, a ponajmanje besmislenim nabacivanjem futuresa u kntekstu projiciranja ostvarivanja vozarina za AP ili bilo kojeg drugog dry bulkera. Takvo projicirqnje može nanijeti značajnu štetu forumašima i investitorima općenito, a želim vjerovati da Vam to nije namjera.

    Ako želimo neku forward projekciju, svakako bi bilo poželjno biti razuman i konzervativan, a u skladu sa objektivnim stanjem u dry bulku kao i znacajnim faznim.pomakom koji je uobičajen u sektoru.

    Godišnje ocekivanje prosjeka prihoda od vozarina i prosjeka triškova po brodu bi bilo zanimljivo prokomentirati od strane onih koji.imaju takav afinitet.

    Hvala dragi forumaši

  • DRY BULK

    Baš zanimljivo i mudro.......

    👍

    U.S.-listed containership owner and charterer Costamare Inc. (NYSE: CMRE) announced the acquisition today of 16 dry bulk vessels, marking a new sector for the company.

    The vessels, which are currently operating in the spot market, range between 33,000 and 85,000 DWT with an average age of 10 years.

    “We are pleased to announce the acquisition of dry bulk vessel. We have decided to invest in a liquid sector with strong fundamentals that provide enhanced return opportunities for our shareholders,” said Gregory Zikos, Costamare’s Chief Financial Officer.

    Two of the ships have been delivered with the rest of the vessels expected to be delivered latest by January 2022. The ships will be managed through the company’s “existing platform headed and enriched by the dry bulk Onassis team”, who will be joining Costamare in July.

    Costamare said the acquisitions will initially be funded with cash on hand, and the company is in the process of arranging commercial bank debt. “Considering the nature of the dry bulk business, we plan to have low leverage of up to 60% of the value of the assets,” the company said.

    All told, the 16 vessels, the sixteen dry bulk vessels will add approximately 932,000 DWT to Costamare’s fleet. Meanwhile, its fleet of containerships includes 81 vessels with a total capacity of approximately 581,000 TEU

    “We look forward to providing a detailed update on our business strategy during our second quarter results,” Costamare said.

    In diversifying its fleet across both the container and dry bulk shipping sectors, the Costamare joins Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE: NMM) which owns and operates a fleet of 89 vessels, including dry bulk vessels and 38 are containerships which it recently acquired through its acquisition of former Navios Maritime Containers L.P. (formerly NASDAQ: NMCI).

  • DRY BULK

    Quote from gigic23

    Evo mala poslastica za analitičare i vjerne pratitelje dry bulk topica.

    Povijesni djelomićni tablični iskaz orderbook no,, orderbook DWT, orderbook fleet i BDI.

    Iskaz za BDI je za navedene mjesece, pa su prikazani brojevi mjesečni prosjeci.

    Uživajte :)

    Evo još jedan "mali" dodatak o eventualnoj opstojnosti i trajanju visokih vozarina

    Od 01.10.2003 - 03.10.2008 u 1829 dana pr BDI bio je 5.057.

    U ovoj godini YTD pr BDI je 2 140.

    Živi bili pa vidjeli..... :) 8)