Posts by NaBiduAsku

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    Quote from Parica

    Turisti će razvalit ovu godinu...ovo nije normalno...

    Upravo zvao za rezervirat hotel Amarin (Maistra) ovaj vikend...nema prazne sobe, sve puno, minimalna cijena noćenja (ovisno o sobi) 300EUR...sve puno...ne mogu sebi doći

    Hotel Lišanj (JDRN) ovaj vikend nude po 185 EUR/noć...brutalno

    Na Black friday sam rezervirao hotel Vespera (Jadranka) ovo ljeto, uz sve popuste dobio sam 290 EUR/noć...prošle godine istu Vesperu rezervirao u svibnju za 200 EUR/noć...trenutno nude identične sobe kao moju za 350 EUR/noć

    Ne pišem ovo isključivo zbog dionica nego samo želim naglasit da će ova sezona bit daleko bolja od 2019. i razvalit će nam i sezona i BDP i skupa s njima i dionice :) :) :) .

    kad si fina gu*ica :) Imaš Plava laguna ili Valamar za 65-70 Eur polupansion po cijeloj Istri hotele ali tek na proljeće.... ali ne , ti baš voliš skupo :P

    ali da, mi smo postali jako tražena zemlja u vrijeme ovih bezveznih mjera i teroriziranja ljudi.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Quote from accountant

    vremena su teška, u ožujku FED se povlači na kupnji i dižu kamate, indeksi će padati bez sumnje (ovakvih dvo-trodnevnih bull run će biti), situacija s radnom snagom nije se poboljšala, lanci opskrbe, inflacija svega i svačega etc. etc.

    tako i meni logika radi ali vidjet ćemo još. živimo luda ponzi tech vremena, možda baš ovaj put ne bude tako. mene ne bi čudio daljni rast kad se iskontrolirano ispušu neke dijonice.

    p.s. evo opet fjućrsi u plusari, ameri su 5% od vrha( DJIA barem).. dakle i dalje su na vrhu. ne znam tko je tu lud. luda vremena.

  • Inflacija

    Quote from StatusQuo

    drugi problem je sta mi nemamo nikakve growth kompanije pa onda imamo rupu na zse od desetljeca dok se ciklus ne okrene jer nemamo kompanije koji mogu napravit znacajan rast na temelju organskog rasta, a nismo jedini samo kod nas je to vise izarazeno.

    StatusQuo sve 5, iako i sam Russel kaže da je razlika ta što su već sad valuacije američkih dionica visoke (iako vidimo da se neke korigiraju bez većeg pada indexa) a moje je mišljenje da naše nisu. Je da su mnoge firme banana ali ima onih koje nisu i dio su naših indexa i rast (ako ga bude) preliti će se i na te banana stocks jer će narod tražiti način kako sačuvati ušteđevinu koju nagriza inflacija. Vrlo brzo dođe do FOMO-a, taman smo ga imali prije sloma agrokora, i onda ćorak... možda ovaj put uspije a možda je sve ovo što pišem wishful thinking. Ne znam, ali ovo što Ruseel govori ima smisla. Meni pašu svi smjerovi, samo mi ne paše ova status quo situacija na našoj burzi... na tome nema zarade :)

  • Inflacija

    So let’s take the playbook after the war: For about twenty years, we saw high nominal growth, followed by a long period of stagflation. What are we looking at today?

    For the average guy in the street, financial repression can look quite good. Let’s say your wage is going up at 5%, and your mortgage rate is 3%. This is not a bad world to be in at all, arguably for the majority of the population even if their wages only grow in line with inflation. The person who pays the price for this is the saver. Even if you just took the period from 1945 to 1957, which was the period where everybody was doing quite well, you lost 35% of your savings if you held British sovereign bonds.

    It was a fantastic time for equities, though.

    Absolutely, if you had been in equities during that time, you did very well. That’s why I’m bullish for equities today. However, there is one crucial difference: At the end of the war, the yield on ten year Treasuries was 2,5%, and the dividend yield for equities was 10%. Equities started the period of financial repression at dirt cheap valuations. From 1945 to 1966, you had this catch-up where the cyclically-adjusted P/E went from 9x to 25x. Today, equities enter this period at an already very rich valuation.

    And then came the era of stagflation.

    Starting in the late Sixties, we entered stagflation. There were many factors, and the oil crises were certainly important. But basically the problem is, in the long run, if you put the wrong cost of capital into the economy, you get a misallocation of capital. The word stagflation wasn’t invented until 1966, because we had never seen it before. It was invented by Iain Macleod, who was then the Chancellor of the Exchequer. Over a prolonged period of time after 1945 capital was misallocated, and this resulted in productive capacity not being added in the right places and people not being employed.

    Do you expect a repeat of this pattern, first a boom, and then stagflation?

    Yes, but I wouldn’t expect the boom phase to last that long. So even though I’m bullish for equities at the moment, the difference this time is they start at an overvaluation, rather than at an undervaluation. A repeat of the long boom from 1945 to 1966 for equities is unlikely.

    How long can the good times last?

    The first stage can go on for three or four years. That’s short compared to after World War II, but it’s long for many people. The time to sell equities is when governments formally force savings institutions to buy more bonds. Because in order to buy, they will have to sell equities.

    And after that, there will be stagflation?

    If we agree that stagflation is a consequence of a long period of misallocated capital driven by financial repression, then we have to expect it to happen again. You misallocate capital, and you get high inflation and high unemployment.

  • Inflacija

    Quote from StatusQuo

    Jedan zanimljiv pogled na sve ovo i zanimljivo stivo

    https://themarket.ch/interview/russ…ression-ld.4628

    Russell Napier caused a stir in the financial world one year ago when he made the call for a regime change: After almost thirty years in which the global economy was characterized by deflation, the market observer thinks that a phase of structurally rising inflation is beginning.

    Just like after World War II, Napier believes that governments will pursue a policy of financial repression in which the interest rate level is deliberately kept below the rate of inflation to get rid of the high levels of debt.

    The Market NZZ spoke with Napier about his inflation call. In this in-depth conversation, which has been redacted for clarity, he explains which developments will shape the coming years, how investors can prepare for them – plus why trying to forecast the velocity of money is akin to juggling an incontinent squid

    Won’t this just provoke another leg up in real assets, like equities?

    Yes. That’s why I’m bullish on equities and real estate. As the experience during the three decades after World War II has shown, in the early stages of financial repression, equities and real estate are beneficiaries.

    ovo se nekako uklapa u neki moj uvrnuti osjećaj za filing da će dionice i dalje rasti... pa i kod nas. Unatoč rate hikes. Vani se sada malo ispuhuju neki baloni kako vidimo i kad to stane ide novi rast svega. I mi se dobro držimo iznad 2000 bodova. Kažem vam postoji šansa da se Puris D.D. ponovno uvrtsi na burzu :) a onda će perje letjeti. Uglavnom imamo dobar alat za kompenzaciju visoke inflacije koja nam jede ušteđevinu. A to je ZSE. Daj bože da bude tako :thumbup:

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    slažem se sa svime, međutim živimo toliko luda vremena da me ne bi čudilo da dionice budu i dalje rasle unatoč dizanju kamata, za sve postoji prvi put a pošto smo u ponzi vremenu i to je mogućnost.

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    Quote from Parica
    Quote from NaBiduAsku

    meni otišao sav prinos iz ove godine... 15 000kn i sad sam i u minusu 2000. Loše sam ovaj put sve to odigrao. Jako loše. Idemo dalje, prošla godina je bila dobra, ova će da vidimo.

    Uglavnom, čudno mi je krenula ova 2022. godina, a čudno se i ja ponašam...i to me brine jer dosadašnje ponašanje je davalo odlične rezultate...

    Potpisujem kolega Parica, pogotovo ovaj dio. Ma idemo dalje, glavno da smo u plusu, sve je to dio igre :) Tebi, Mittku i svim forumašima samo naprijed, idemo dalje. Samo nek je zdravlja, sve drugo će doći :)