Posts by stipe_Cro

  • DRY BULK

    Malo da potpiri vatru :)

    Russia’s largest coal producer Suek has declared force majeure at its 24m tonnes/year Daltransugol terminal at Vanino, in the far east of the country, following a fire on Monday.


    “Based on information from the port, the conveyor belts… were severely affected by the fire and cannot be operated at the moment, making it impossible to perform any coal-loading operations,” Suek said in a letter to customers, on Tuesday, seen by Montel.

    It said therefore that there were “no loading operations”, although rail arrivals from mines were not affected.

    The outage comes at a time of already tight supply in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, with the Global Coal Newcastle Index – a benchmark for Asia-Pacific trade – assessed last up more than USD 10 on the day at USD 245.76/t. This was only marginally below last week’s record high of USD 247.53/t.

    “Evaluating the situation”

    Suek said it was “evaluating the situation in more detail” and working on possible solutions to minimise the disruptions.

    A source close to the firm said it was “looking for a quick basic solution to start soon”.

    No vessels have left the terminal since 11 October, with exports in the weeks prior to the fire earmarked for Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia, according to vessel tracking data by VesselsValue.

    Suek has shipped around 16.5m tonnes from Vanino since the start of the year, the data showed.

    It plans to expand export capacity to 40m tonnes/year over the coming years.

    Force majeure is a common clause in contracts that can free some parties from liability in the case of extraordinary events or circumstances beyond its control.

  • DRY BULK

    The possibility of the so-called La Nina weather pattern occurring this year has tripled, according to forecasts, potentially exacerbating an already tight global coal supply situation over the winter.


    Australia’s bureau of meteorology on Tuesday forecast a 70% likelihood of the event returning over the southern hemisphere summer, which lasts from December to February.

    The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also forecast a 70-80% chance that the phenomenon would occur.

    The event is generally associated with above-normal rainfall – often resulting in flooding – in affected areas, including key coal producers Australia and Indonesia.

    But it can also lead to colder-than-average temperatures in China and other consuming nations, triggering increased demand for power generation fuels.

    “This is definitely going to hurt, if La Nina shows its teeth and causes further supply disruptions in major coal-producing areas,” said a coal analyst with a European energy firm.

    Strong monsoon season a concern

    “Supply is already tight, so a strong monsoon season in Indonesia or Australia would take more volumes away from the market at a time when China and India are suffering due to low stocks.”

    She said temperatures in northeast Asia were also forecast to be below normal, thereby lifting heating demand and proving supportive for both coal and gas prices.

    Already, the Global Coal Newcastle Index – a benchmark for Pacific coal trading – last week reached a record high of USD 247.53/t.

    It was last seen at USD 235/t, up more than USD 150/t from the start of the year.

    Cold winter more worrisome

    An Australian coal trader, however, said the potential for La Nina was not “a major consideration” at present, given the existing tightness of supply.

    “I am sure it will come into the rhetoric from suppliers, as we move forward in time, but the reality is that there isn’t enough coal available today, regardless of potential future weather impacts.”

    “I think there is more concern, or focus, on whether the winter will be cold in Asia and Europe, as, if it is, then there is no chance supply will be sufficient,” he said.

    Pacific impact in Atlantic

    The first analyst also pointed to heavy rains in Colombia and South Africa – also key coal producers – meaning the Atlantic basin market was also “not getting away with it”.

    “There is no significant evidence of temperature anomalies in Europe [this winter], but the impact from the Pacific energy market will definitely end up being felt in the Atlantic,” she said.

    The front-quarter API 2 contract recently changed hands up USD 9.50/t on the previous settlement, at USD 202.50/t.

  • DRY BULK

    Quote from 5. Element

    Sve je stvar ponude i potraznje. Dugorocnim ugovorom o isporuci struje po cijeni od jucer si mozes obrisati d.pe ako tvoj proizvodjac pravi struju od ugljena ili plina koji su poskupjeli 5x. Ako ima hidroenergiju, nuklearnu, obnovljive, jos ajde nekako, ali i tu se postavlja pitanje zasto bi isporucivao tebi ako moze nekom drugom skuplje. Ugovori su super stvar, ali kad se radi o jako velikoj pari ubrzo dodje do aktivacije raznih rupa o kojima se ne razmislja kad je sve regularno.

    S tim da je ovo tek pocetak, sve tvornice koje su sad ugasene ce morati saugati jos jace jednom kad supply energenata jace krene, da nadoknade zaostatak. To je kao jos jedan port congestion na postojeci port congestion.

    Realno vidim jos jaci porast energenata, a onda ce se supply pojacati jer je ekonomski incentive vrlo jak. S porastom volumena dodatno ce rasti vozarine, nebu pod oblake.

    Nisu to vozarine pa da imaju ugovore s klauzulama (za koje isto samo nagađamo). Kupljena energija mora se isporučiti. Tu sad u priču dolazi pitanje odakle ti prodavač isporučuje. Ako nema vjetra ili vode, teoretski ti isporuči iz ugljena, ali na svoju štetu jer je ugljen sada skup. Poanta je da nakon što tebi isporuči po ugovoru, on još uvijek može lijepo zaraditi po ovim cijenama prodavajući energiju na burzi.

    Ali dobro, malo smo zastranili...

  • DRY BULK

    Lako je Orbanu popovati kad šuruje s Rusima.

    CO2 je odgovoran samo za petinu tretnutnog povećanja cijene električne energije.

    Mislim da je prije odgovorno špekuliranje o padu cijene plina i ugljena i nemogućnost nabave zbog boljih cijena u pacifičkom bazenu pa proizvođači radije prodaju tamu ugljen nego u Europi.

    A dodatno je vjerojatno odgovorna dugoročna kupnja el. energije u 2020. kada su cijene bile rekordno niske.

    Treba naglasiti da se radi o cijeni el. energije na kratkoročnom tržištu. Za izračun cijene prosječnog MWh za jednog proizvođača ili opskrbljivača treba uzeti u obzir i dugoročne ugovore. Povucite paralelu s prosječnom vozarinom kod brodara :)

  • DRY BULK

    Svi se nadaju da neće cape vozarine toliko prema gore. To na kraju možda ispadne samo wishful thinking.

    Treba uzeti u obzir i da ove razine nisu postignute više od desetljeća kad dosta trenutnih trgovaca nije bilo aktivno.

    Velik spread normalna je stvar kada su veliki skokovi. Kakav je rast capea bio u zadnjih mjesec dana? Brutalan. Zato su i spreadovi brutalni.

    Uz ovako strmi rast, naravno da je prisutan sve veći strah od pada.

    Vrijeme će pokazati je li on opravdan, a to trenutno ne znaju ni trgovci futuresima :D

  • DRY BULK

    Općepoznata stvar je da futuresi što je proizvod dalje u budućnosti slabije prate trenutnu cijenu, odnosno da u ovom slučaju imaju popust na cijenu, a da je obratni slučaj i da cijene strelovito padaju, imali bi premiju.

    Tako da mi stanje futuresa ne označava trenutno ništa što se tiče početka pada vozarina.

    Pogledajte samo kako se korigiraju mjesec za mjesec. Jedino na capeu imamo značajan pad za studeni, što ne znači da se neće iskorigirati.

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from hugh
    Quote from BudFox

    Netko marljivo skuplja ovdje, tako bar izgleda

    Očito je da neko skuplja ali neko fino i "otresa" sve te dionice........nekako mi izgleda kako u zadnje vrijeme sve ide nekako naopako.......zadnjih mjesec dana crobi raste, vani indexi padaju......danas atpl na novom vrhu, vani rone, a mnogi nisu ni blizu zadnjeg vrha.......ili će netko dobiti novce a nekome ostati dionice ili hrvatsko tržište možda procjenjuje da je pad vani pravo vrijeme za bull run u hrvata.......nekako mi ova igra hrvatskog tigra izgleda too much risky (ne mislim tu samo na atpl)........ali zato znamo da veči rizik nosi i veču potencijalnu zaradu.......

    Da nije možda CROBEX na rekordnim razinama?

    Vrlo je jednostavno. Hvataju se zaostaci rasta. Povukla je Podravka dobrano, rast BDP-a od 8,5 %. Ne znam koliko će se Amerika oporavit ove godine, ali mi smo potegnuli bolje od očekivanja zbog sezone koja je iznenadila i besplatne love iz EU. Dodaj tome fini rast ATPL i eto nas na 2000+ CROBEX-a.

    Optimizma obično fali u lijepoj našoj. Kad jednom krene, pitamo se zašto ne pratimo pesimizam u SAD-u.

    Tako razmišljaju samo Hrvati.

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Quote from Brunos

    Hipotetski ako vec usporedujemo povijesne ATH od prije 10+ godina trebalo bi uzeti i efekt inflacije sto zapravo znaci da je teoretski ATH i veci od 3500 po danasnjoj vrijednosti novca.

    Ali svakako slazem se da bi vecina dionicara prodala i na 1750kn.

    A samo bi pravi igrači pričekali prave razine :D

    BDI je bio cca 1300, ali tada su bili drugi razlozi rasta