Posts by stipe_Cro

  • DRY BULK

    A fire at a Russian coal mine could impact 0.4m tonnes/month of coal supply to the seaborne market, amid an already tight market, sources said on Thursday.


    The blaze broke out this morning at SDS-Ugol’s Listvyazhnaya mine in western Siberia, according to the region’s governor Sergei Tsivilev.

    “That’s approximately 0.4m tonnes/month out of the market,” said a Russian coal trader, close to the situation, adding the mine’s produce – of high-grade thermal coal – was mainly sold for export.

    This comes at a time of already tight supply to both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, which has seen front-quarter API 2 prices gain more than 20% since the start of the week to USD 156/t, at the time of writing.

    An analyst with a utility also said the mine's output was predominantly shipped to European destinations, including Germany and Poland.

    In a post to his Telegram account, Tsivilev said the ministry of emergency situations had received reports of smoke from the mine shortly after 09:00 local time.

    He said 49 miners were still trapped underground, with one having died, although local media reported six deaths.

  • DRY BULK

    Pacific-basin benchmark coal prices have risen 14% this week to a four-week high with Chinese efforts to boost domestic production unlikely to completely offset import requirements this winter, analysts said on Thursday.


    Broker Global Coal’s Newcastle index, a reference price for high-grade (6,000 kcal/kg) Australian coal, was assessed last up USD 20.31 on the week at USD 169/t but was still well below mid-October record highs in excess of USD 250/t.

    A 25,000t cargo for loading in December traded earlier this week at USD 163.50/t, via Global Coal.

    Market participants said while Chinese domestic production had increased in recent weeks, there were limits to its potential output volumes, so it would still be in part reliant on imports to weather the winter demand season.

    Falling stocks

    “China seems to have reached top of it’s potential to ramp up [production] and now stocks at coastal utilities are also starting to come down,” said a coal analyst with a large producer.

    ANZ Bank analysts agreed, noting “even though China has been able to boost daily output to more than 12m tonnes, it’s likely to need more stock if it’s to stave off power shortages this winter”.

    As such, the Zhengzhou exchange’s most liquid thermal coal contract, for January 2022, settled last nearly 13% higher week on week at CNY 934.40/t (USD 146.30/t).

    “The Chinese think they have enough for the winter but I think they will be buying later,” said a coal analyst with a Singapore-based trading house.

    “I don’t think it’s that easy [for China] to maintain those production and transportation levels,” he added.

    Meanwhile, the La Nina weather pattern – which has now become “established” and can result in heavy rainfall/flooding for key producing nations such as Australia and Indonesia – could further underpin prices, market participants said.

    “Flooding in Australia could dent supply,” noted the first analyst.

    ANZ analysts also said the weather system could push temperatures in China to well below seasonal norms and create another “energy crunch”.

    Indian demand upturn

    Meanwhile, in India, there had been some rise in imports, as generators continued to replenish stocks from recent multi-year low last month of just over 7m tonnes.

    Coal inventories at plants were pegged last at 18.6m tonnes, up by almost a quarter on the week, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data showed.

    “Imports are up, as prices have fallen from highs,” said one India-based coal trader, adding, however, a majority of the imports at present were of lower grade material from Indonesia.

  • DRY BULK

    Znam ja, znam ja!¨

    Panamaxi su na dugoročnim ugovorima tako da je ovaj današnji rast nebitan :D

    Al su me na drugom forumu popljuvali zbog toga da kako ne znam da ATPL ima Pmaxe i da spot vozarine za Pmax utječu na ATPL.