Podijeljena mišljenja oko kineskog uvoza ugljena do 2024.
Benchmark prices in China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, rose 7% on the week. The contract for May delivery on the Zhengzhou exchange last settled at CNY 869.40/t (USD 136.47/t).
“We see China remaining active in the international coal market despite efforts to boost domestic supply,” ANZ bank analysts said in a recent note.
They expect China’s imports to rise a further 100m tonnes – or roughly 31% above last year’s level – as the country struggles to meet demand growth domestically.
China import reliance waning
China’s central planner is targeting a 300m tonne per annum expansion in production as well as reserves of 620m tonnes to avert shortages that prompted fears of winter blackouts last year. China produced just short of 4.1bn tonnes of coal last year, more than half the world’s total.
By contrast, Hassall saw Chinese import dependence waning.
“To me this is almost the biggest story in the coal market since I’ve been in coal,” said Hassall. “China may no longer be a net importer of coal by 2024.”
Chinese authorities were targeting a rise in average daily production to 12.6m tonnes, Hassall said. This was slightly above a December record of 12.4m tonnes and well above an average rate of just over 11m tonnes last year.
Such output could swiftly outpace demand growth of likely 5% and depress import demand, depending upon how quickly China attains it and how swiftly the country restocks inventories, Hassall said. “It suggests significant downside risk.”
