Posts by mitkko

  • ATPL (Atlantska plovidba d.d.)

    Nije nista tako znakovito, jednostavno me nasmijao haiku :) Jos uvijek pokusavam odgonetnuti koja je to vrsta rime (parna, ukrstena i slicno) ali sam sada skuzio da je haiku po definiciji trostih. Eto i naucio sam nesto novo.

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    Zanimljivo gledište nam daje Bridgewater (onaj hedge fond koji je osnovao Ray Dalio).

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-27/bridgewater-sees-much-bigger-drop-in-stocks-before-fed-blinks?srnd=premium-europe

    How much further is the Federal Reserve willing to let stocks slide? That’s the burning question of the moment for financial markets, and Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, has an answer: as much as 20% more.

    And in Bridgewater’s analysis, much of what has been happening lately is simply math: Asset prices were elevated by injections of “excess liquidity.” Now that policy makers are withdrawing that monetary stimulus, “there aren’t enough buyers to make up the difference,” Jensen said. The result is what he calls a “liquidity hole” affecting both stocks and bonds.

    Anyone who expects the Fed to blink, as it did after the last pre-pandemic selloff in late 2018, is misreading the economy, Jensen said. Things were different then. Inflation was below the Fed’s 2% target and big companies were buying back shares instead of adding capacity, stockpiling supplies and raising wages.

    “Since the 1980s, problems have always been solved by easing. That was true fiscally and monetarily, and the countries that eased more did better than the countries that eased less,” he said. “We’re at a turning point now and things will be much different.”

    For the first time since Paul Volcker’s Fed of the early 1980s, inflation has accelerated so fast it’s become a political issue. Powell, speaking to reporters after the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, acknowledged the central bank may have to jack up borrowing costs faster than the market anticipated to stop prices from spiraling higher. Jensen doesn’t think the Fed wants the market to crash, just reset to a level where it’s more reflective of cash flows in the “real economy” and no longer a channel for inflationary pressures to build. He expects policy makers will be watching closely to see if lower asset prices have any effect on job creation.

    One question Jensen raised is who’ll buy all the bonds that the Fed has been soaking up with quantitative easing. In addition to raising rates in March, policy makers are set to end the asset-purchase program that has inflated the central bank balance sheet by trillions of dollars. Jensen said he figures the 10-year Treasury yield has to reach 3.5% or even 4% -- up from less than 1.9% today -- before private investors are ready to absorb all the government debt that the Fed has been monetizing. In that scenario, with Treasury prices set to decline further, bonds fail as a hedge against stocks and the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio is useless as a diversification tool. Jensen said a 1970s-style “stagflation” playbook is more appropriate, and investors need to increase their commodity holdings, trade out of U.S. stocks in favor of international equities and use breakevens to combat inflation.

    “Expecting the environment to feel like it did over the past couple of decades is a big mistake,” he said.

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    Baš, frišku figu se oni trude.

    Cijela istina u par slika:

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  • Upute za pocetak trgovanja dionicama na stranim tržištima kapitala

    Quote from zlocesti

    Da li bi se to moglo riješiti sa dva monitora ? Na jednom crtaš, na drugom imaš platformu ?

    Moram priznati i mene to muči

    To mi je komplicirano, volim pojednostaviti stvari, radim inače na malom laptopu kojeg svuda nosim sa sobom pa mogu trejdati i iz kafića ako je prilika. Ova shema sa Trandingviewom je odlična i skroz jednostavna. Ima dosta velika lista brokera sa kojima rade, ali nema IKBR i drugi koje ovdje najčešće koristimo.

    Evo i lista brokera:

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  • Upute za pocetak trgovanja dionicama na stranim tržištima kapitala

    Je li netko probao trgovati preko capital.com? Probao sam demo racune kod nekoliko brokera i manje-vise svi su imali lose alate za chartiranje. Spreman sam platiti i vece provizije, samo da imam sve potrebne alate za trejdanje.

    Isao sam na Tradingview, imaju najbolji engine za chartiranje i naviknut sam ga koristiti. Gledao sam sa kojim brokerima su u dealu. To mi se cini super stvar, povezes brokerski racun i trgujes preko Tradingviewa. Izmedju ostalih vidio i taj Capital.com.

  • Tehnička analiza - komentari LIVE

    BDRY apdejt

    Cijena dosta dobro prati projekciju na grafu. Malo pomalo i izbrisana je gotovo cijela ona prošlotjedna euforija.


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  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    Quote from tin

    ....pričamo o riziku da se poveča kamatna stopa 0.25%....ili je u pitanju nešto drugo??

    Ne radi se tu samo o % gore ili dolje, problem je QE kojeg vise nece biti: prvo tapering -> onda dizanje kamata -> onda quantitative tightening. Nece vise biti "money printer go brrrrrrr".

    Analiticari ocekuju da ce tightening poceti vec u Q4/2022 ako sve bude islo po planu, a buduci da vidimo da inflacija i dalje divlja u ne nazire joj se kraj, trziste se pribojava mogucnosti da uz sve ovo (sto je vec samo po sebi dovoljna pizdarija) FED cijeli proces jos i ubrza.

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    A mozda se danas cudno osjecas jer ti je rodjendaaaan!!!

    Sretan ti rođendan drugar :)

    Bit ce jos puno uspona i padova, neka si ti nama samo ziv i zdrav!

  • DRY BULK

    Je, pardon, greškom sam uspoređivao sa jučerašnjom vrijednosti panamax vozarina za 5T/C rutu koja je bila na 18.119. Nažalost nemam direktan pristup Baltic exchange-u, sve saznajem iz posrednih izvora i ručno prebacujem u excel pa se zna dogoditi greška. Vidim da i ti preuzimaš podatke iz istog izvora.

    BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 18119 32

    Evo ispravak:

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  • DRY BULK

    Quote from stipe_Cro

    Odakle ti ova brojka za BPI?

    Prenosi jedan lik na twitteru. Evo sve:

    Capes Index $6180: Jan 12650 -150 Feb 10000 -1400 Mar 15750 -600 Q1 12900 -600 q2 21500 -1150 q3 27250 -650 q4 26000 -700 Cal22 22000 -700 Cal23 19350 -350 Cal24 17300 unch Cal25 16100 -100

    Panamax Index $16783: Jan 20000 -150 unch Feb 17750 -1300 Mar 21000 -1950 Q1 19500 -1200 Q2 22750 -1050 Q3 21750 -1000 Q4 20000 -700 Cal22 21000 -950 Cal23 16150 -350 Cal24 13750 unch Cal25 12750 unch

    Smax Index 10tc $19006: Jan 20500 -300 Feb 19500 -1100 Mar 22500 -800 Q1 20750 -700 Q2 22750 -850 Q3 21750 -700 Q4 19750 -500 Cal22 21300 -650 Cal23 16150 -200 Cal24 13650 -100 Cal25 12750 unch

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-25/stock-market-s-boomerang-rally-hints-at-deeper-troubles

    Boomerang Rally Hints at Deeper Market Troubles

    In the morning, investors wanted dividend yield and a history of paying money to shareholders via buybacks, and wanted no part of momentum or growth:

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    And now, here is the same chart updated at the end of the day’s trading. Volatile stocks had enjoyed the best day, and dividends had acted as a lead weight:

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    There is no way to explain what happened in terms of any fundamentals or news. It can instead be viewed as good trading. Enough people, or their algorithms, judged at about noon that the recent trends had been taken far enough for now, and there was a grand reversal. Whatever was down the most, that was what you wanted to buy the most.

    Trading reversals this dramatic are not common. Bespoke Investment Group finds only five prior instances since its records began when the Nasdaq Composite fell as much as 4% intraday and finished in positive territory. Here they are, with Bespoke’s detail on what happened next.

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    This is a rare event, driven by a selloff that had left the market oversold, and history suggests that such things tend only to happen when something is amiss.

    Apart from the hiking campaign that came way back in 1988, the year after the Black Monday crash, and Jerome Powell’s ill-fated attempt to normalize financial conditions before the Christmas Eve selloff of 2018, the Fed hasn’t raised rates with stocks as much as 10% below their peak. It’s as well to remember this when looking at historic comparisons. Over the last three decades, the Fed has never made life harder for the stock market when it is in any kind of trouble. In those three decades, inflation wasn’t a serious issue. Now it is. The S&P 500 isn’t far from 10% below its recent high. It’s very likely that the Fed will be put to the test at some point this year.

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    As these charts show, the effective strike price for the Fed “put" for the last three decades has been 10% below the recent high. Investors must accept that the strike price will be much lower now. Lack of inflation allowed the Fed to provide a cushion for a generation — we should assume that cushion has been removed, or at least lowered very substantially, until such time as inflation comes under control again.

  • Ideje za trgovanje na inozemnim tržištima - Što i zašto ?

    Quote from StatusQuo
    Quote from mitkko

    Gledam opet graf DAX-a, dosta je zanimljiv, imamo dvije potencijalno bearish formacije, jedna unutar druge. Ovo je daily graf, komentari su na grafu.

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    Postoji i moguca bullish divergencija isto ukoliko se odbije dalje

    Naravno, moguća je, ali to se tek treba pokazati. Ova bearish divergencija se već odigrala, nju ne smatram bitnom za daljnji pad, ona je samo ukazivala na double top, sve kako sam naveo na grafu.

  • Komentari trgovanja na burzi - LIVE

    Quote from barbosa 2.0
    Quote from mitkko

    Nastavak na ovu gore zanimljivost je da je u druga dva ovakva slučaja u 2008. S&P padao daljnjih 28% do ožujka 2009.

    jasno, bilo je za očekivati tehnički odbijanac i svakako će biti još volatilnosti dok se tržišta ne ustabile ali te oscilacije bi sada trebale biti sve manje i manje, međutim uz TA treba komparirati i FA i onda će analiza biti konkretnija i upravo stoga se ja ne bi previše uzdao u povjesne obrasce prošlih kriza jer su fundamentalno neusporedive,... naime, kriza hipotekarnih kredita 2008. je bila kriza NEsolventnosti a današnja je kriza PREsolventnosti odnosno uslijed pretjerane likvidnosti napuhavanja mnogih klasa fin. imovine a posebno dionice meme-a, neprofitabilne dionice tehnologije, SPAC-ove i kriptovalute koje u krizi 2008. još nisu niti postojale.

    stoga, ova "kriza" koja to objektivno to niti nije, je u stvari produkt pretjerane likvidnosti i svega onoga što je "pretjerano" napumano te se sada sporije ili brže ispuhuje pri čemu se oslobađa velika količina likvidnosti koja će u konačnici morati negdje završiti a i bez toga, likvidnosti uslijed QE pak ima toliko da se stvaraju INflatorni pritisci za razliku od 2008. kada se likvidnost preljevala u krpanje bilanci uz izražene DEflatorske pritiske

    stoga, mislim da iskustva i tehnički obrasci iz krize 2008. uopće nisu komparabilni sa aktualnom situacijom.

    Uzroci pada naravno nisu isti danas i prijašnjih godina, ali način pada, reakcija tržišta je često slična. Kažu: "Povijest se ne ponavlja, ali se rimuje."