Quote from st-brajo

StatusQuo

pratim ju redovito.

bila je bullish Bitcoin, Rusiju, Kinu, Emerging markets, itd., ukratko, sve što je sad u teškom qurcu.

sad moli Boga da Rusija ne nađe način za liferovanje viška nafte koji Kina i Indija trenutno ne mogu posaugati, pa da Rusi budi prisiljeni zatvarati bušotine 🤷

Do prije koliko je to bila bullish, prije rata ili ?

Primjetio sam je prije ali tek nedavno sam nesto konkretno procitao, mislim ovo sta sam do sad procitao ima logike i smisla, mislim dio ocito vec prije i sam na neki nacin govorim o dolaru i problemima CB na slican nacin samo rijetko ima autora kao ona koja te dodatno nauci necemu jer se ipak podrudi dublje uci u tematiku i dobro objasnjava, a vidi se da ima tu znanja, sad uvijek je tesko pogoodit ovakve globalne stvari kad imas previse faktora koji se uplecu, svi su oni ipak svjesni problema i pokusavaju ga rijesiti.

The developed world managed to offset the 2000s oil price increase on official inflation levels because it was aggressively offshoring a lot of its manufacturing to China, which was a big disinflationary force on many goods and on domestic blue collar wages. I don’t think we’ll be able to repeat that decoupling again here in the 2020s:

Quote from Normani

Živnulo je na temi. Dosta nickova koji inače ovdje nisu aktivni.

Moze se reci da ih je dosta pratilo ali kako je puno narasla, to im je bila averzija da kupe, prirodno je i lakse je kupovat "jetfnije" na pullbacku

Staticko ili ne staticko EV/EBITDA od 5 na trenutnoj cijeni tesko da je realno

Malo po malo pucamo po šavu, pitam se da li ce ove sad zalihe koje si napunili ipak smanjivat jer kako izgleda javlja se opet problem s nabavkom i vremenom dobave tj opet se pogorsava, da bi kompanije tek tako smanjile razine zaliha na pred covid razine, puno rizika i neizvjesnosti smanjuje produktivnost

The containership port congestion index created by UK broker Clarksons hit a new record on July 14, whereby 37.8% of the boxship fleet capacity was at port. This exceeds the previous peak level recorded in late October 2021, and stands well above the pre-covid average of 31.5% recorded between 2016 and 2019.

“There is still no fix to non-ocean bottlenecks which are big drivers of supply and demand, and not in a good way for shippers,” the latest weekly report from Danish container advisory Sea-Intelligence warned, going on to list the 70,000 truckers who have just gone on strike in California and the tens of thousands of containers clogging the US west coast ports waiting for rail to destinations, because there are not enough engineers. There are nearly 30,000 rail containers delayed on the port of Los Angeles docks alone, with rail-bound cargo sitting for an average of 7.5 days. Over on the east coast, meanwhile, congestion levels, brewing for the last two months, are closing in on record levels.

Global boxport congestion sets fresh record highs - Splash247

Boxport congestion is setting new record highs, quashing talk of any imminent return to supply chain normalisation. The containership port congestion index…

splash247.com

Russia's Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of 'extraordinary' circumstances, according to a letter seen by Reuters, upping the ante in an economic tit-for-tat with the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Dated July 14, the letter from the Russian state gas monopoly, said it was declaring force majeure on supplies, starting from June 14.

Known as an 'act of God' clause, force majeure is standard in business contracts and spells out extreme circumstances that excuse a party from their legal obligations.

Exclusive: Russia's Gazprom tells Europe gas halt beyond its control

Russia's Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of 'extraordinary' circumstances, according to a letter seen by Reuters,…

www.reuters.com

Ajde prosli smo dobro danas

"

Jim Cramer is ringing the bell at the New York Stock exchange.

The last time he did it, March 10th, 2015, became, up until that point, the worst day in the market of 2015.

The Dow plummeted 332.7 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropped about 1.7%.

"

Quote from SOUR

Pa sve osim stečaja bi trebalo biti dobro. Čak i Zadro u članku iznad kaže; "Nadam se da je najgore razdoblje iza nas, ali to ne mogu sa sigurnošću tvrditi jer ova je kriza nepredvidljiva od svih do sada - zaključuje Zadro."

A što se plina tiče zalihe su pune, a neće valjda prodati Petrokemiju Turcima da troše plin, a umjetna gnojiva prodaju možda i u izvoz, a da prije toga ne osiguraju dovoljne količine plina za proizvodnju šećera domaćoj tvrtki. Sa plinom smo barem u prednosti prema većini drugih Europskih država koje nemaju dovoljno plina.

A dobro su prosli u ovoj "predvidljivoj" krizi do sada da bi ova nepredvidljiva trebala biti kamilica

Jedan jako dobar clanak koji puno toga povezuje i jako dobro objasnjava, je da je clanak kao knjiga ali stvarno se isplati procitat koga zanima malo vise. Jedan od boljih osvrta na sve ovo, ocito nije mogao biti kraci da se stvarno kvalitetno ne napise.

This newsletter issue analyzes policymakers’ current attempts to rein in price inflation via demand destruction, and why that approach is unlikely to work as well as they think

June 2022 Newsletter: Demand Destruction

Ili iz twitta koga zanimaju komentari prije citanja

S obzirom na vaznost kine na dry sektor danasnji podaci osim GDP-a pokazuju dobar smjer iako bez obzira na niski GDP to je i dobro jer pokazuje vaznost postizanja rasta za kinu s takvim zaostatkom, bitnije od svega je pad nezaposlenosti jer je to bitno za potrosnju i sentiment gradjana, s obzirom na duzi period negativnog razdoblja ocito da sentiment malo slabije se vraca iako je retail sales bio dobar, samo da ih opet ne zatvore to je jedino bitno za trend

Quote from D_artagnan

https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=1381023999042134

Genijalno, opet PPD se spominje ahahahahahaa, valjda neka greška

Rijesava HDZ sebi nasljedstvo dok moze

Quote from accountant

Quote from st-brajo

inače, moram primjetiti kako su svi naši analitičari "eksperti" za USA ekonomiju, a nitko ni slova za ono šta nas čeka u Evropi.

kao da postoji neka (auto)cenzura za poteze ECB-a koja je btw., naprintala više od FED-a.

svi su "zabrinuti" za USA, a nitko da i slova napiše o cirkusu koji radi ECB, koji je btw., u cijeloj Evropi napuhao cijene nekretnina i o uputama kako u toj situaciji voditi i neku poreznu politiku, a koja neće ubiti likvidnost građanima.

bitno je da se USA ekonomija analizira do u detalje, a Evropska ekonomija prvoloptaški.

ne znam za vas, al meni to polako počinje ić na onu stvar 🤷

koja ekonomija u RH?

stanje naše ekonomije se vidi u broju (likvidnih) izdanja: ima dana da jedna dionica prijeđe milju kuna prometa

zna se: samo nekretnine!

vidim da se novi budući finanzminister dohvatio govoriti o uvođenju poreza na nekretnine

kad krene u tom smjeru izletit će naglavce iz ministarstva

što se EU tiče, tu ti je stvar jednostavna: EU je Njemačka, kad oni kihnu ostatak se smrzne

a tamo imaju neki problemčić s plinom

endgame

schluss!

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Ma sve je to stvar ciklusa nema tu puno pomoci kako god okrenio kapital ce se uvijek vrtiti i stvarati balone, kapital ide tamo gdje ima zarade i gdje je porezno opterecenje manje i onda kad dodje do krize gdje je logicno dignit porez za zakrpat rupe nego tamo gdje imas veliku bazu jer se predhodno puno ulagalo i gdje ima velike vrijednost pa nece dignit necemu sta je desetkovano u tom ciklusu sta bi s time postigli zaradili koju kunu. Da je vlasti bitno osigurat normalni najam onda bi to vec uredili davno, njemci nesto u belinu pokusavaju s tim da preuzmu masu privatnih apartmana u svrhu reguliranja najma, ne znam dokle je to doslo.

Vidim retail sales jako dobar ne cini se da demand usporio, ne gine nam 0,75, samo da ne bude 1% na sljedecem fedu

Quote from barbosa 2.0

Quote from StatusQuo

A kako nema govora o potrosnji i potraznji za autima od cega ADPL izravno zivi s obzirom na izlozenost EU trzistu, jedina informacija u svemu tome je pala inflacija da bi se donio zakljucak koliko se toga moze anulirati kroz inflaciju.,

kolega, predmetni članak NE govori o potrošnji i potražnji za autima nego o novoregistriranim vozilima a dalje u textu navode da je pad uslijed poremećaja u opskrbnim lanacima ...potražnja je rekordna, nova vozila se čekaju i preko 6mj a poremećaji su u riješavanju...

Pa prodaja i registracija je jedno te isto i govori kolika je potrosnja trenutno vrlo jednostavno tako je trenutno toliko se potrosilo, druga je stvar ako netko moze derivirat kolika bi potrosnja mogla biti u buducnosti da se supply strana dovede u red koja bi mogla povecat potrosnju samo problem te derivacije je to sta je jako tesko uvrstit sve ekonomske promjene koje nas cekaju da bi netko se na to tako jednostavno uhvatio trenutni backlog i moguci utjecaj recesije ako je bude, cinjenica je da taj pad potrosnje oni pokusavaju nadomjestit rastom cijene koliko ce u tome uspit vidjet cemo kao sta su i spomeniili u clanku

"

Automakers are also dealing with raw material and energy costs, which are contributing to vehicle price increases.

The industry will not overcome supply constraints anytime soon," LMC Automotive said in an update this month. "Another concern relates to underlying demand, which has weakened in recent months as the economic outlook has deteriorated.

"

Quote from LodeRunner

Novi QE polako krece.

The content cannot be displayed because you do not have authorisation to view this content.

Kako ovisnika skinit s dopa nikako izgleda, tesko se suocit sa realnoscu kada odjednom se skines to vuce puno posljedica koje netko mora platit. Znaci ako bude tako ode nam euro ko zna gdje, znaci sami podupiru jos daljnju uvoznu inflaciju jer bi inace morali povecat poreze za platit vece kamate na dug koje ekonomija ne moze podnit jer bi isla velika recesija, znaci rijesenje je placanje duga kroz inflaciju i stagflaciju izgleda

Quote from SOUR

Quote from StatusQuo

A kako nema govori o potrosnji i potraznji za autima od cega ADPL izravno zivi s obzirom na izlozenost EU trzistu, jedina informacija u svemu tome fali inflacija da bi se donio zakljucak koliko se toga moze anulirat kroz inflaciju.,

Ali opet ću ponoviti što sam spomenuo u nekoj objavi prije. ADPL je firma za sebe i traži si sama poslove. Nije da ovisi samo o Njemačkim proizvođačima automobila. Početkom godine je sklopila posao i sa Suzukijem, a poslije toga još nekoliko poslova. Trenutno je zarada ADPL nepoznanica, ali nisu vezani samo za neku firmu traže si poslove gdje god da ih nađu da prevladaju nastalu situaciju.

Pa takvi izvjestaji su svugdje po EU nije njemacka iznimka, Adpl je iskljucivo EU orjentiran da ovakvi trendovi ne bi ostavili utjecaja, sreca da atpl se brzo prilagodjava promjenama i dobro upravlja troskovima ali svejedno trendovi su poprilicno negativni za brzu promjenu.

Quote from SOUR

Quote from StatusQuo

European passenger car sales fell 17 percent in June to 1.07 million, the lowest monthly tally since 1996 as persistent supply chain snarls and record inflation afflict the industry.

Volkswagen Group was the hardest-hit major automaker, with registrations dropping 24 percent from a year ago, according to data published on Friday by industry association ACEA.

Sales at Stellantis, the region's No. 2 automaker after VW Group, fell 17 percent.

https://europe.autonews.com/sales-market/e…s-supply-issues

Ovakvih, sličnih članaka je već toliko objavljeno na ovoj temi da bi najrađe pitao, a kakve to više veze ima s AD Plastikom.

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A kako nema govori o potrosnji i potraznji za autima od cega ADPL izravno zivi s obzirom na izlozenost EU trzistu, jedina informacija u svemu tome fali inflacija da bi se donio zakljucak koliko se toga moze anulirat kroz inflaciju.,

European passenger car sales fell 17 percent in June to 1.07 million, the lowest monthly tally since 1996 as persistent supply chain snarls and record inflation afflict the industry.

Volkswagen Group was the hardest-hit major automaker, with registrations dropping 24 percent from a year ago, according to data published on Friday by industry association ACEA.

Sales at Stellantis, the region's No. 2 automaker after VW Group, fell 17 percent.

Europe sales slump to worst June in decades on supply issues

Renault Group's Alpine and Dacia brands, along with Alfa Romeo and Porsche, gained sales in a slumping European market in June.

europe.autonews.com

China Readies $1.1 Trillion to Support Xi’s Infrastructure Push

China is making 7.2 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in funds available for infrastructure spending, a decisive shift away from a focus on controlling debt toward supporting a lockdown-ravaged economy. The figure refers to government-backed funds and is based on Bloomberg News’ analysis of official announcements. It includes an unprecedented 1.5 trillion yuan of “special” bonds, mainly used for infrastructure, that local governments may be allowed to sell in the second half of this year, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. With the government expanding its funding support, infrastructure investment in 2022 will likely rise 7.7% from last year, according to Citigroup Inc. That would be a major boost to the world’s second-largest economy as Beijing tries to offset the drag from repeated Covid lockdowns and a slump in the property market.

“We have entered a new cycle of infrastructure development,” said Yu Xiangrong, chief China economist at Citigroup. “That’ll be a new normal.”  

He estimates overall growth in fixed-asset investment will reach around 6% this year, which would contribute 2 percentage points to China’s gross domestic product growth. “The tendency of shifting away from infrastructure investment due to the deleveraging campaign has come to an end,” he added.

President Xi Jinping has called for an “all out” effort to increase infrastructure spending this year in the hope of fueling economic growth and meeting a GDP growth target of around 5.5%. Local governments have been issuing bonds at a record pace to fund industrial parks, transportation networks, water projects, mobile networks and data centers. 

Taking into account financing from private sources and commercial banks, it’s unclear just how much will be spent on infrastructure. Citi’s Yu estimates the number could be 16.5 trillion yuan. Others are more optimistic: Lian Ping, chief economist at ZhiXin Investing Research Institute predicts spending could reach about 19 trillion yuan this year, contributing 3.7 percentage points to China’s GDP growth.

China Readies $1.1 Trillion to Support Xi’s Infrastructure Push

China is making 7.2 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in funds available for infrastructure spending, a decisive shift away from a focus on controlling debt toward…

www.bloomberg.com

Inflacija sta je to, veselo izgleda

For the first time ever, Manhattan’s average rent surpasses $5,000 a month

Specifically, the study tallied an average Manhattan rent of $5,058 per month, which alone would set a city tenant back nearly $61,000 a year. That figure marks a 1.7% month-over-month climb from the $4,975 average rent recorded in May, as well as a 29% year-over-year spike from the $3,922 average found in June 2021.

For the first time ever, Manhattan's average rent surpasses $5,000 a month

That figure marks a 1.7% month-over-month climb from the $4,975 average rent recorded in May.

www.marketwatch.com

Evo probili smo i dolar granicu 0,9955