Posts by jasko

Mislim da su ipak trebali ići na rabljene brodove, ali dobro njihova odluka..

Velika prednost kod rabljenih brodova je što su jeftiniji od novogradnji i vrlo brzo su

spremni za iskorištavanje, za razliku od novih brodova na koje treba čekati. Cijene rabljenih

brodova dosežu najveću vrijednost u konjunkturnim razdobljima. Razlog su: ograničeni

brodograđevni kapaciteti, veliki vremenski rok isporuke novogradnji te brza dostupnost

rabljenih brodova. U konjunkturi cijene rabljenih brodova mogu doseći veće vrijednosti od

cijena novogradnji; razlog je čekanje na novogradnje, dok rabljeni brodovi donose profit

odmah.

Capesize +6.4% to $47,361

Panamax 4TC +1.3% to $32,446

Supramax 58k tons +1.5% to $35,603

BDI 3.976

BCI 5.711

BPI 3.754

BSI 3.237

On the dry bulk sector, last week BDI surpassed 3,500 points for the 1st time since June 2010. This
motivated us compare June 2010 vs today on both mid-cycle asset values and 1-year TC markets,
which leads to the following paradoxical observations: Back in June 2010: (i) although Newbuilding
prices were similar to today’s ones, 10-year-old dry bulker asset values were 40% to 60% higher than
today. (ii) Supramax and Handy 1-year period TC rates were 20% to 35% lower than today.                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Supramax 1-year T/C $28,000

Significant upside in vessel values - Ultramax 5y

Current freight rates supported by strong fundamentals

The capesize market is experiencing something of a resurgence given higher activity out of Brazil to the extent that some participants are speculating whether $50,000 per day can be reached.

It is not just capes that look bullish — other bulker segments are also getting a boost..........

It expects the rates strength to continue through to the end of the year. https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1137928/Week…own-but-not-out

Market highlights

In the second quarter, we observed a further improvement in the spot rates with the Baltic Supramax 58 index averaging USD 24 261 net per day, up from USD 16 140 net per day in the preceding quarter. The third quarter has continued even stronger, with the Baltic Supramax 58 index averaging over USD 30 000 per day – the highest since 2008.

Total Supramax shipment volumes ended at 268 million tons in Q2, up from 256 million tons in Q1 and a record high quarter. Close to 90 million tons were shipped in each month, which is very high historically but still slightly below the record of 93 million tons shipped in March. However, preliminary estimates for shipments in July show another all-time record of 96 million tons.

According to Fearnleys, vessel deliveries dropped to 23 in the second quarter, down from 27 in the first quarter, which marked the lowest number of deliveries since the fourth quarter of 2018, when 14 vessels were delivered. Without assuming any slippage or cancellation (which is usually between 10-20 per cent), the vessel delivery schedule for the remainder of this year says 44 during the third quarter, and 30 during the fourth quarter. This would take the full year total to 133, which is lower than last year’s 143. Next year, the delivery schedule points to a further reduction in fleet growth, with only 109 vessels scheduled for delivery. The number of new vessels is on track to be the lowest since 2007, when 86 vessels were delivered. However, in relative terms, it is approaching the lowest level in several decades.

The publicly quoted orderbook indicates fleet growth will drop next year and then even further in 2023, according to Clarksons. There will be changes to this outlook for fleet growth as the amount of newbuilding orders being placed over the next 12 months are uncertain and it is also normal that 10-20 per cent of the orderbook ends up being cancelled, deferred or simply incorrect. However, we expect relatively low newbuilding activity as the lack of conviction and alternatives for fuel and propulsion systems will continue to restrain ordering activity in the near term. Most importantly, demand for newbuildings in other segments than dry cargo is absorbing most of the shipbuilding capacity for 2022-2023 and has led to strong increases in newbuilding prices.

Prices for secondhand vessels have increased considerably since before the summer and appear strongly supported to increase further on the back of a very strong freight market.

ORDERBOOK/SUPPLY - The publicly quoted order book for the

Supra/Ultramax segment is below 6 per cent – historically very low. In relative terms, we

are heading towards the lowest rate of supply growth in 30 years. The average sailing

speed has increased, showing that the market has been able to absorb this inherent

fleet supply during a sharp increase in spot rates. This is an important indicator of a

stronger market sentiment.

STIMULUS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH – Continued credit growth and economic

stimulus is expected to support the dry bulk market in 2022-23 as the effects of

fiscal stimulus usually lags about 12-24 months. Seaborne iron ore is predominantly

driven by Chinese demand whereas minor bulks tend to correlate closer with GDP. GDP

has rebounded in 2021. General consensus points towards healthy levels of

economic activity for 2022.

MARKET PROSPECTS – The market outlook is strong and sentiment for 2022 and 2023

have been revised upwards. With the rate of growth on the supply side diminishing

and post-COVID-19 normalisation now occuring in tandem with a wider commodity

rally it appears that the stars are aligning for the dry bulk market in 2021-22. Ship

values have started to increase sharply. However, significant upside remains if ship

values are to reflect rates and values according to historical correlations.

Soybeans supply/demand fundamentals remain positive for this and next season. Firm grain demand is likely to assist the drybulk cargo flow and longhaul seaborne trade, thus lending support to panamax and supramax freight rates.

Capesize +8.4% to $44,495

Panamax 4TC+2.6% to $32,024

Supramax 58k tons +1.4% to $35,080

BDI 3.833

BCI 5.365

BPI 3.707

BSI 3.189

Jinhui Shipping And Transportation Reports 275% Rise in Second Quarter Revenues, as Dry Bulk Market Recovers

Revenue for the period: US$48 million

Net profit for the period: US$91million included reversal of impairment loss on owned vessels of US$65.5 million

For the first half of 2021, dry bulk shipping market had rebounded remarkedly reflected in the upsurge of market freight rates and significant increase in the market value of dry bulk vessels. The management considered that reversal of impairment indication of the Group’s fleet existed as at 30 June 2021. With due considerations of factors affecting the long term intrinsic values of owned dry bulk vessels in the reversal of impairment review, the Group’s owned vessels’ recoverable amounts which are determined based on the value in use are significantly higher than their respective carrying amounts as at 30 June 2021. Accordingly, a reversal of impairment loss of US$65,521,000 on owned vessels classified in property, plant and equipment was recognized as at 30 June 2021 to reflect our change in the expectation on the long term global economic and the dry bulk shipping industry outlook which affect the assumptions applied in estimation of the value in use of our owned vessels. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/jinhui-shippin…arket-recovers/

Vrijednost brodova nastavlja rast.......

Supramax Sep 39000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Baltic Dry Index Rises 1.41% to 3,657

Capesize +2.02% to $41,049

Panamax +0.97% to $31,216

Supramax 58k tons +0.88% to $34,611

Baltic Capesize-indeksen + 2,0 prosent til 41.049 dollar

Jinhui Q2 2021 Presentation http://www.jinhuiship.com/news/jst20210817N5213.pdf

According to data from Cleaves Securities, the dry bulk fleet as a whole is currently registering a fleet utilisation rate of around 93%.

“As spot rates are an exponential function of fleet utilisation, small increases from the currently lofty levels could propel spot rates significantly higher,” Joakim Hannisdahl, head of research at Cleaves Securities, told Splash today.

Hannisdahl said that if Brazilian exports remain above 30m tonnes in the coming months, capes could reach $60,000 per day in the near term. https://splash247.com/no-ceiling-in-…_medium=twitter