Norveški analitičari kažu da može...

Dionice Jinhuija ove su godine porasle 321 posto. Može li porasti još 500 posto? https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/aksjea…ige-500-prosent

Freight futures am update

Capesize up ~2%

Panamax up ~2%

Google prijevod

Izvršni direktor Bulkersa 2020. Magnus Halvorsen kaže da bi brodarska kompanija do kraja godine mogla zaključati 55.000 dolara dnevno.

Halvorsen kaže da je najvažniji pokazatelj ulaganja u brodarstvo ponuda, a ne potražnja. Dostava je vrlo ciklična, ali problemi obično ne dolaze sa strane potražnje. Dvije su stvari posebno na strani ponude koje će smanjiti rast flote u budućnosti.

Prvo, kapacitet kineskih brodogradilišta smanjen je i pao 20 posto od vrha. Nekoliko dvorišta jednostavno je zatvoreno. Na mjestu su izgrađeni apartmani i zabavni parkovi. Istodobno, došlo je do konsolidacije u državnim dijelovima industrije, a banke nerado financiraju privatne igrače. Drugi faktor, za koji Halvorsen kaže da je Bulkers 2020 imao sreće, je broj narudžbi od kompanija za prijevoz kontejnera. Naručili su toliko da se postojeći kapacitet rezervira za velike brodove do 2024. godine. https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shippi…ource=sistenytt

Supramax
Positive start of the week across all markets. Impressive push on a FFA made optimism to return...

Quote from KicanCRO

I jucer je vanka velika vecina bila u zelenom, i to do 9 posto plusa. Dok sam nadokupljivao navijao sam za pad ili stagnaciju, sad kad sam do kraja nadokupio stali smo sa rastom 🤬. Doduse vecinu sam kupio na 240 kn.

Blizu 16% plusa......

Dry cargo rates remain strong led by the Cape market where benchmark voyages are excess $50,000/day and bulk carriers of all sizes are selling for higher prices.

Container vessels rates and S&P prices continue to amaze with each new reported sale. One of the most remarkable asset plays in recent
memory is the reported sale by a New York based investment firm who purchased 6 container vessels during the lows of 2017-2018 and
has flipped them for huge profits (if all 6 are indeed sold, the profits could be region $287 mill.)! It is also interesting to note that the
Seller named the ships for ex-New England Patriots football players (with the exception of the "MP THE BELICHICK" named for
Coach Belichick who is still with the Patriots)...

We are enjoying the best run in bulk carrier earnings in over ten years and yet so
many people are looking for any reason to announce an imminent correction. The
lack of conviction is not so surprising as, like stock markets, we climb a wall of
worry. The extraordinary spike in bulk carrier earnings and ship values in 2007-08
was long enough ago that many young practitioners in our industry did not
experience it. Today’s excessive caution contrasts with the reckless animal spirits
that prevailed 13-14 years ago when market players pushed earnings and prices
into nosebleed territory. They happily played chicken with the market, in the full
knowledge that it would eventually come down just as fast as it had gone up.
These days, in a similarly unpredictable world, some degree of hesitancy is
understandable, and it may even help us make more sustainable gains. Last Friday,
we saw the reported the sale of a Chinese resale kamsarmax, an 85,000-dwt unit
delivering from Shanghaiguan in mid-2022, for $36m, about $2m above current
newbuilding prices. In fact, both newbuilding and resale prices are up by around
$2m since the start of Q3 as higher input costs, bumper earnings and strong
demand propel both nominal readings higher. However, in the context of the
heady days of 2007-08, these numbers are not at all remarkable. Taking a 76,000-
dwt resale panamax, nominal values peaked in November 2007 at $106m, easing
back to $87m in September 2008, the month in which Lehman collapsed, only to
crash to $46m in October. Prices hit a cyclical floor of $35m in April 2009, which
is right where we are now in price equivalent terms for a resale kamsarmax. This
provides some context and illustrates the upside potential.

Najnoviji targeti.......... Živi bili, pa vidjeli..

Vrijednost brodova nastavlja rast.........

"Sindikat pomoraca Hrvatske je godinama vodio sporove pomoraca protiv Jadroplova radi neisplate ugovorenih bonusa i drugih financijskih potraživanja. Naglašavali smo nesrazmjeran broj sporova u usporedbi sa svim drugim hrvatskim kompanijama što je ukazivalo na lošu praksu prema pomorcima.

Također smo upozoravali vlasnika i javnost na tvrdnju da pomorci u biti nisu zaposlenici Jadroplova, što je bilo nekorektno i uvredljivo prema pomorcima i što je srećom Visoki trgovački sud također tako vidio.

Nadamo se da su takvi sporovi sada prošlost, da će suradnja s novom Upravom biti kudikamo bolja. https://sph.hr/novosti/aktivn…adroplova-2334/

Vrijednost brodova nastavlja rast...........

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 46172 5021

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 32356 767

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 34867 -99

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 32534 28

BDI INDEX 3864 +221

Supermax Oct 38750                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Quote from jasko

Quote from migra

za sada nema tuđih targeta pa ću ja otvoriti sezonu.

2021.

crni scenarij 250

srednji scenarij 300

najbolji scenarij 350

važna napomene da u 2022. očekujem inteziviranje tog rasta + dodatno intenziviranje ako bi podbacio u 2021.

kao očekavana posljedica još manje isporuka i dodatnog povečanja demanda u odnosu na 2021.

očekujem i pozivam najveće oponente koji su zagovornici pesimizma na atpl da se odluče sami sebi dati na vjerodostojnosti iznošenjem vlastitih targeta, u protivnom ih neću moći uzimati za komentatore koji i misle ono što pišu.

oni koji za sebe drže da su dobri poznavaoci sektora nebi smjeli imati problema sa time.

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Moje procjene za 2021. godinu su slijedeće: minimalno ATPL - 700, JDPL - 50, ULPL - 200..................................... Živi bili, pa vidjeli.

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Mali podsjetnik na prognozu od 08.02. kad su cijene dionica bile: ATPL 179, JDPL 12,50, ULPL 32,80.....

Po jutru se dan poznaje  Supermax

Second Hand Bulkers’ Prices Firm Up on Improved Freight Rates

For instance, in early 2021, the price of a 15 year old Japanese Supramax vessel was estimated at around $7.7-8.0 million with the current price indication at above $15.0 million. In line with the Supramax sector, 15 year old Japanese Panamax units were sold at around $10.0-11.0 million back in January 2021 with the current price being negotiated at around $19.0 million”. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/second-hand-bu…-freight-rates/

Supramax
On the paper it looks like the October futures are on a bullish wave 5 of this phase with price holding key
moving averages, this would suggest the futures are targeting the USD 40,075 high in the near-term.

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 41151 633

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 31589 329

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 34966 -359

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 32506 -87

BDI INDEX 3643 +25

Golden Ocean Group has managed to bag some comparatively early delivery slots in China, revealing today orders for three kamsarmaxes. The 85,000 dwt ships will deliver from Q3 in 2023 through to the first quarter of 2024.

Broking sources tell Splash the orders have been placed at CSSC Shanhaiguan and are costing $34m each. Golden Ocean has already taken the deliveries of eight kamsarmaxes from Shanhaiguan. https://splash247.com/golden-ocean-o…maxes-in-china/

Prosječna dnevna vozarina supramaxa za:

Jul... 31609

Aug. 34876

Sep. 36549