Bulk carriers have done well based on restrained supply, despite patchy demand.
Supply-demand estimates just released in DBTO show a MoM deterioration after
taking Ukraine into account. This year, dry bulk trade growth is forecast at 1.6%
against dry bulk fleet growth of 2.0%.* This improves next year to 2.2% versus
0.4% as demand recovers and supply slows to a trickle. The handysize segment is
best placed with forecast fleet shrinkage of 2.3% in 2023 after only 1.8% growth in
2022. In a nutshell, sanctions on key Russian exports will reduce absolute tonne
trade but raise tonne miles travelled, as nearby cargoes are replaced from further
afield. In the major bulks, forecast changes in absolute seaborne volumes YoY, are
as follows. Iron ore: 0.7% in 2022 & 0.7% in 2023. Coals: 0.4% in 2022 & 1.1% in
2023. Grains (including SBs): -3.8% in 2022 & 3.6% in 2023. Overall: -0.1% in 2022
& 1.3% in 2023. For minor bulks. Bauxite: 9.4% in 2022 & 5.3% in 2023. Forest
products: 1.0% in 2022 & 2.6% in 2023. Steel products: -3.5% in 2022 & 2.4% in
2023. Overall: 1.0% in 2022 & 2.4% in 2023. The Chinese economic slowdown is
hurting, but a reset was needed to rebalance the economy and reduce debt ahead
of November’s 20th National Party Congress. The world ex-China is helping out
post-Covid as it raises spending. Take forecast YoY changes in seaborne iron ore
volumes. China: -1.5% in 2022 & -0.9% in 2023; Global: 0.7% in both 2022 &
2023.^ It all helps in an unusually chaotic market, with interruptions to both cargo
and ship supply, with earnings and asset values still well supported.

*Demand in billion tonne miles; Supply in million tonnes dwt.
^WSA predicts global steel demand to rise 0.4% YoY in 2022 to 1.84bt
and 2.2% YoY in 2023 to 1.88bt.
**Baltic indices average daily spot earnings in 2022 YTD (22 April):
BCI: $14,374 … -24% YoY / $18,809 in same period in 2021
BPI: $23,828 … +26% YoY / $18,898 “ “
BSI: $25,743 … +49% YoY / $17,297 “ “
BHSI: $24,743 … +45% YoY / $17,018 “ “
Baltic SPA avg values for 5-year old bulkers in 2022 YTD (22 April):
Cape 180K: $46.1m … +33% YoY / $34.6m in same period in 2021
Kmax 82K: $33.5m … +39% YoY / $24.1m “ “
Smax 58K: $28.3m … +76% YoY / $16.1m “ “
Hndy 38K: $26.3m … +74% YoY / $15.1m “ “

The Big Picture: Supramax market https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/…supramax-market

Još malo strpljenja............. https://en.macromicro.me/charts/773/baltic-dry-index

Quote from Manu

"U izvještajnom razdoblju izrađena je procjena vrijednosti financijske imovine – poslovnih
udjela u društvu ULJANIK Brodogradnja 1856 d.o.o. te je u tijeku procjena vrijednosti
dionica u društvima United SHIPPING SERVICES TWELVE i UNITED SHIPPING
SERVICES THIRTEEN. Po primitku mišljenja Odbora vjerovnika, sazvat će se Skupština
vjerovnika radi odnošenja odluke u uvjetima i načinu unovčenja te imovine."

Prema najavama stečajnog upravitelja za desetak dana očekuje se da bi se o pribavljenoj procjeni trebalo raspravljati na Odboru vjerovnika................ Prema najavama Lorisa Raka, moguće je da će Skupština vjerovnika po tom pitanju biti sazvana tijekom idućeg mjeseca. https://www.glasistre.hr/gospodarstvo/u…una-kuna-791882

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 11305 178
BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 27780 65
BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 28551 596
BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 26264 208

BDI INDEX 2142 +27

Preokret na vidiku.........
BCI 5TC 11305 178

BCI 5 T/C routes 180000 11127 -1158

BPI 5 T/C routes 82500 27715 337

BSI 10 T/C routes 58328 27955 486

BHSI 7 T/C routes 38200 26056 -19

BDI Index 2115 -22

Many analysts and owners believe that until zero-emission-ready ships become commercially viable, and the requisite fuelling infrastructure is being built out globally, the bulker and tanker

orderbooks will stick in “shallow waters”,remaining at historically low levels.

Gatati iz kave najbolje je tokom dana, a prigodan dan za takvo “čitanje” je utorak........

U šalici se mogu vidjeti buduća zbivanja koja slijede u narednih 10 dana..

ATPL 555

ULPL 155

JDPL 70

Poslušajte od 35:50 https://radio.hrt.hr/slusaonica/pom…da=202204182015

MR Average Earnings $38,078

MR tanker rally continues as rates jump 60% to $56,000 per day https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/mr-tan…day/2-1-1200603

Record wheat crop, high stocks to help India meet rising global demand

NEW DELHI, April 11 (Reuters) - Bumper harvests and overflowing grain bins will help India to meet wheat import needs of the world's top buyers as Russia's Ukraine invasion hits supplies from the Black Sea region, a top government official said.

India, the world's second biggest wheat producer, is prepared to meet any extra demand for wheat from buyers in south Asia and Southeast Asia, and also from countries further afield in Europe, West Asia and North Africa. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/re…and-2022-04-11/

EU: 40 Million Tons of Coal Will Need to Be Sourced from Elsewhere After Ban on Russian Coal https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/eu-40-million-…n-russian-coal/

Vrijednost brodova nastavlja rast....                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) and Freight Risk Management, a powerful mix https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/…-a-powerful-mix

China Port Congestion Worsens as 477 Bulk Ships Waiting to Berth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/…srnd=markets-vp

EU adopts fifth round of sanctions against Russia over its military aggression against Ukraine https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…gainst-ukraine/

KRIZA ENERGENATA Kapetan Antun Asić o poslovanju preko oceana: Jesu li plinaši budućnost Atlantske plovidbe i drugih hrvatskih brodara? Moguće je napraviti taj korak, ali... https://more.slobodnadalmacija.hr/om/vijesti/kap…rak-ali-1182121