“GASOLINE: Falling like a rock, down 25% in 85 days. Never seen during inflation era of 70s-80s.
“Every time gasoline has just ‘flatlined,’ CPI tanks .. in 1981, this was a precursor to a massive decline in CPI .. See what we are getting at?
Posts by Ray Dalio
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Da,INTC je imao vrlo loše izvješće,pad prihoda i gubitka tržišta i uz to dodatno padaju marže-profitabilnost a ulaganja vrlo velika.
Treba naglasiti da nisu dizali cijene unatoč rastu cijena sirovina.I dalje zaobilazim,iako vjerujem da je puno toga lošeg već uračunato.
Uglavnom,slijedeća tri kvartala se ne očekuje ništa pozitivno,ali ako ipak iznenadi bit će lijepi rast,
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Goldman: "We continue to believe that the peak for core PCE inflation is behind us, as the surge in goods inflation caused by shortages and rising commodity prices has likely peaked and should moderate by year-end."
"We forecast core PCE inflation of 4.2% in December 2022 (vs. 4.5% previously), 2.6% in December 2023, and 2.3% in December 2024 based on our bottom-up inflation model."
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Već sam mislio da smo nadrljali mi koji nemamo dovoljnu izloženost bilo kakvoj energetici, plinu, nafti, uraniju...
Kad ono dvoznamenkasta brent nafta, a wti čak ispod 90$.
To je dobra za vijest za sve osim "naftaše",ja sam već mislio da opet kreće nafta i inflacija u nebesa,pošto cijena nafte najviše utječe na istu.
Da budem precizan i za velik broj naftnih kompanija je dobro dok cijena iznad 80$.
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ZIM EBITDA 8.4 milijardi usd.
MCAP 5.2 milijardi usd
Ovako nešto nemaju ni proizvođači droge.
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JPM expects global inflation to slide to 4.7% in 2H22, half its current pace. Marko: "Tail risks diminishing post-CPI, sentiment improving for risk assets: signs that a peak in inflation is behind are growing, which reinforces the idea that Fed hawkishness is likely behind and a soft landing is increasingly likely. The prospect of a recession in Europe is still very much alive, but this should be manageable so long as the US and China are still growing" (JPM cross-asset)
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Da ne bude zabune,slažem se sa većinom što Burry piše,iako sam oduvijek više bik nego medvjed.Past perfomance također pokazuje da se radi o natprosječnom ulagači,i tu ne mislim na čuveni "Big short",i tu je usput već od 2005 g medvjed i bio tri godine prerano u pravu i propustio veliki dio bull-a.
Tajming je u dionicama sve,zato sam cijelo vrijeme izložen u dionicama,rijetko 100% doduše.Ni najveći ne znaju točno pogoditi taj pravi tajming pa kako onda mogu ja.
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"Nasdaq now up 23% off its low. Congratulations, we now have the average bear market rally. Across 26 bear market rallies from 1929-1932 and 2000-2002, the average is 23%. After 2000, there were two 40%+ bear market rallies and one 50%+ rally before the market bottomed."
Problem sa gospodinom gore je to što uglavnom ne pogađa kuda će market.Barem kad je tajming u pitajnu,jer naravno da će jednom biti u pravu...barem u nekim prognozama.
Od 2008 koliko mi je poznato(nakon duge medijske šutnje od 9 godina) pogodio je jedino za Bitcoin,za sad,iz 03/2021,iako ćemo i to još vidjeti naravno:
Michael Burry, Who Predicted 2008 Mortgage Crash, Says Bitcoin Is A Speculative Bubble, Sends Prices LowerMichael Burry, Who Predicted 2008 Mortgage Crash, Says Bitcoin Is A Speculative Bubble, Sends Prices Lowermoguldom.comFulao je za TSLA,čak mislim i shortao.Pa redom kolaps marketa 2017, 2019, te 2021 g posebno,i naravno ove godine,jer market je 10-ak% posto od ATH trenutno
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Rate hike odds tumble: Sept 75bps odds collapse to just 35%, down from 80% pre CPI
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Real average weekly earnings continues to plunge, now down 16 straight months as inflation eats away at any wage gains...
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CPI 0.0% M/M, Exp. 0.2%
CPI 8.5% Y/Y, Exp. 8.7%CPI Core 0.3% M/M, Exp. 0.5%
CPI Core 5.9% Y/Y, Exp. 6.1% -
-4"Much of inflation rise came from gasoline prices, which increased 11.2% on the month and just shy of 60% for the 12-month period." - CNBC
Pošto u u međuvremenu cijene nafte pale,market očekuje da od sad može biti samo bolje.
nafta pada? samo zašto onda rastu naftaške dionice?
uvijek je tako prvi dan nakon objave, dok se tržište ne zbroji...
Da,WTI je na 97$.Prije cca mjesec dana bilo po 122$.
Zato jer i po trenutnim cijenama naftaške dionice super zarađuju,dok god je nafta na 80-100$ za njih je to pozitivno.Teško da će puno niže unatoč recesiji,dok god imamo Ukrajinsku krizu.Pa i da završi rat sutra sankcije će ostati još jako dugo.
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"Much of inflation rise came from gasoline prices, which increased 11.2% on the month and just shy of 60% for the 12-month period." - CNBC
Pošto u u međuvremenu cijene nafte pale,market očekuje da od sad može biti samo bolje.
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- Shipping rates from China to the West Coast are down 38% M/M
- Trucking rates are down 31% since the start of 2022
- Railroads are reporting a 3% YTD decline in volumes -
*HONDA MAY U.S. AUTO SALES -57.3%
*TOYOTA US MAY SALES 175,990, -27.3% Y/Y
*MAZDA N. AMERICA MAY SALES DOWN 63.7%
*NISSAN APRIL GLOBAL SALES -29.1% -
Zarađujete li vi nešto sa tim ulazima/izlazima ove godine i u ovakvom bear marketu?Ono,prinos od početka godine?
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JPM: "We estimate the potential equity buying by the end of May due to monthly rebalancing by balanced mutual funds to be between $34bn and $56bn"
Morgan Stanley: "With month-end rebalances quickly approaching, though, something to keep in mind given how ‘positioning-driven’ this tape’s become. MS’ QDS Team now estimates that these month-end pension rebalances may bring with them ~$35B of domestic equity inflows – which if realized, would mark an 89th percentile reading on actuals going back to 2005"
GS model estimates $11bn of US equities to BUY for month end
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Small caps nikad nisu bili ovako jeftini.
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TGT zbilja jako loš report. -
ZIM ima cash 20$+eps za ovu godinu oko 40$.
Cijena trenutno 61.60$.
Kupio upravo ZIM,prvi put ikad.
I ja nesto jer ovaj pad mi se kosi sa svime sta znam, makar palo zbog izvanzemaljaca ovo je jednostavno to cheap to ignore
Pada kao da je upravo propao neki novi Lehman brothers.Iako je sad nekakva recesija već sasvim izgledna,kakva i koliko će trajati ne zna nitko.
Goldman misli da je vrh inflacije iza nas,možda jest,možda nije,ali mislim da vrijedi riskirati sa dionicom kojia ima fw p/E od 1.5.
